NY-20: The Trend, Illustrated

Too much stew (0.00 / 0)

You have four data points, which isn't nearly enough.  For instance, could Tedisco's numbers be on the rise?  (The last data point is above #3.)

Don't get me wrong -- Murphy has done a great job closing the gap, and has a good chance to win this one.  But let's not get too euphoric, and let's not try to make too much stew from so few oysters.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 19:32:55 PM UTC

Well, if they had given me more oysters (0.00 / 0)

I would have made a thicker stew... or something. Your metaphors are confusing me.

But I just threw that together based on what we have.  Yup, it's not a lot of datapoints, but it's also a lot better than just having two.  Even if you just look at the two Siena polls, Tedisco's flat while Murphy's numbers are going up.  Using all 4 just makes it slightly more statistically relevant.  

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by: Jrathman @ Thu Mar 12, 2009 at 19:37:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

agreed (0.00 / 0)

Tedisco's the better known candidate and his party has the registration advantage. People are predisposed to vote for him. If he's below 50%, he's in trouble. Whether he's heading toward 48% or 44%, he's still in trouble and it's just a question of how much.

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by: SteveinNYC @ Fri Mar 13, 2009 at 03:09:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]