David Paterson is now viewed unfavorably by twice as many New York voters as those who view him favorably, and four times as many voters rate the job he is doing as Governor as only fair or poor compared to those who say he is doing an excellent or good job as Governor, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of registered voters. If a Democratic primary for Governor were held today, Paterson would lose to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly four-to-one, and Paterson would be easily beaten in a general election by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Paterson is viewed favorably by 29 percent of voters and unfavorably by 58 percent, down from last month?s 40-47 percent rating. His job performance rating is 19 percent positive, 78 percent negative down from 28-69 percent last month. Only 14 percent of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 67 percent who prefer "someone else." That?s down from 19-57 percent last month.
"Both in personal popularity and job performance, David Paterson?s standing with voters continues to slide," said Steven Greenberg, Siena New York Poll spokesman. "The speed of his falling numbers is staggering. Two months ago, 60 percent of voters viewed Paterson favorably, and now it?s less than half of that. Similarly, while more than half of voters said the Governor was doing an excellent or good job two months ago, now fewer than one-in-five believes that, with more than three-quarters saying he?s doing only a fair or poor job. More than two-thirds of voters prefer "someone else? for Governor next year."
In a hypothetical 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, Cuomo leads Paterson 67-17 percent, up from last month?s 53-27 percent. In December Paterson led 49-26 percent. In a potential general election matchup, Giuliani beats Paterson 56-33 percent, up from 51-36 percent last month. Paterson led 51-38 percent in December. Cuomo leads Giuliani 51-41 percent, similar to last month?s 51-38 percent.
"The Governor should be grateful he does not have to face the voters anytime soon," Greenberg said. "Against Giuliani, Paterson only leads with African American voters, Democrats and barely with New York City voters. Against Cuomo, Paterson trails big with every demographic group, including African American voters, who give Cuomo a 55-22 percent lead. And by a similar 52-25 percent margin, African American voters prefer „someone else? over Paterson."
Cuomo has a 68-17 percent favorable rating and a 67-26 percent job performance rating, his highest ever. Giuliani has 58-36 percent favorable rating.
Voters continue to believe the state is headed in the wrong direction (52 percent), rather than on the right track (30 percent). More than nine in ten voters say the state?s fiscal condition is poor or fair, including 60 percent who say it?s poor. By a 50-36 percent margin, voters say that the country is headed on the right track.
The poll also found that Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's numbers are also suffering, though more than half of New Yorkers still know too little about her to form an opinion. Senator Gillibrand's approval/disapproval fell from 34/20 last month to 26/20 this month.
All in all, it looks increasingly obvious that Paterson may indeed be dead in the water. Numbers like this can only impact negatively on his fundraising. As I said last month, these stories tend to snow ball and reinforce each other.
I just don't see how he and his crew turn this around.
