This morning's poll shows that independents are evenly split, that Murphy is seen as running a more positive campaign and that Tedisco's ads are still turning people off.
Loudonville, NY. As the special election in the 20th C.D. enters the final weekend, Democrat Scott Murphy has reversed a four-point deficit and turned it into a four-point lead over Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco. Murphy leads 47-43 percent, having trailed two weeks ago by a 45-41 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters. Tedisco's campaign is viewed by voters as more negative by a 44-25 percent margin, while Murphy's campaign is seen as more positive. Regardless of who they are supporting, by a 45-35 percent margin, voters think Tedisco will win the election.
"While the percentage of likely voters supporting Murphy has risen about three points per week for the last four weeks, the percentage supporting Tedisco has dropped three points. In the last four weeks, Murphy turned a 12-point deficit into a four-point lead," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll.
"Murphy has sealed the deal with Democrats, leading 84-11 percent, while Tedisco has the support of less than two-thirds of Republicans, leading 64-27 percent. Independents are virtually tied, with Tedisco leading 45-44 percent, after trailing with independents by six points two weeks ago and leading by 14 points four weeks ago," Greenberg said. "Tedisco's 16-point lead in Rensselaer and Saratoga Counties two weeks ago is down to six points. Murphy slightly expanded his lead in the northern counties from 25 to 29 points, and turned a seven-point deficit in the southern portion of the district into a two-point lead in two weeks."
"Murphy is now virtually as well known to voters as Tedisco, and Murphy has a slightly better favorable rating, 49-38 percent, than Tedisco's 48-41 percent," Greenberg said. "Senator Kirsten Gillibrand continues to be rated favorably by more than three-quarters of voters, while President Obama is viewed favorably by nearly two-thirds.
"At least nine in ten voters have seen or heard a commercial for both Tedisco and Murphy. By a margin of 30-23 percent, voters say Murphy's ads make them less likely to vote for him. Two weeks ago voters said, 28-20 percent, Murphy's ads made them more likely to support Murphy. Tedisco's commercials fare even worse with voters. Only 14 percent of those who have seen Tedisco's commercials are more likely to support him, while 37 percent say the ads make them less likely to support Tedisco (12-28 percent two weeks ago). About half of voters said both candidates' ads have no effect on who they are supporting," Greenberg said.
Forty-two percent of voters credit Murphy with waging the more positive campaign, compared to 25 percent who say that describes Tedisco. Similarly, by a 44-25 percent margin, voters say Tedisco has been running a more negative campaign than Murphy. Nearly one in five voters says it's both candidates. More than two-thirds of Democrats say Murphy's campaign is more positive and Tedisco's more negative. Republicans see it more even, with 36 percent saying Murphy's been more negative and 29 percent saying Tedisco. Independents say Tedisco's more negative by 42-25 percent margin.
This is great news and all and seems to confirm the movement described in other polls being leaked all week. That said, these low turnout special elections are notoriously difficult to predict. It' going to come down to which campaign gets their people to the polls on Tuesday and to things like the weather. (Weather looks nice, btw)
