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Official NY-20 Results Thread

by: phillip anderson

Tue Mar 31, 2009 at 20:45:00 PM EDT

I'll be live blogging election results from NY-20 here. (I'll be tweeting them as well) Other election results resources can be found Here, here, here, here and here.

MURPHY - 77,344 50%

TEDISCO- 77,279 50%

610 of 610 reporting.

P.S. 9:24pm NOTHING from Columbia, Dutchess, Essex, Washington or Delaware counties yet.

UPDATE: 9:34 All tied up as Columbia comes in.

UPDATE: 9:35 from ScottinNJ:

Washington - 57-43 Murphy with 44/52 in. Gillibrand won here by just 53-47 in '06. Everything N of Saratoga is going heavily for Murphy.

UPDATE 10:02 One thing is clear, there will be no winner tonight given that there are about 5,900 absentee ballots out there.

UPDATE 10:18 AHEAD!

phillip anderson :: Official NY-20 Results Thread

Tags: NY-20, Jim Tedisco, Scott Murphy, (All Tags)

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Official NY-20 Results Thread | 77 comments

Any idea on what this indicates? (0.00 / 0)

Any county information here that seems to indicate it's swinging one way or another?

by: bryanbarash @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:25:20 AM UTC

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Greene County (0.00 / 0)

Murphy leads 56-44 with 56 of 70 in. That's better than Gillibrand in '06

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:29:36 AM UTC

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That's Warren County... (0.00 / 0)

...not Greene

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:31:23 AM UTC

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Saratoga... (0.00 / 0)

most current results are here: http://66.195.74.98/

Tedisco 56-44 with 92 of 188 in. Gillibrand won here 53-47 in '06 but it's Tedisco's home turf.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:31:03 AM UTC

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Columbia county might be helpful (0.00 / 0)

to scott. and northern dutchess will help.

We've got some work ahead of us.

by: NYBri @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:32:04 AM UTC

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Washington (0.00 / 0)

57-43 Murphy with 44/52 in. Gillibrand won here by just 53-47 in '06. Everything N of Saratoga is going heavily for Murphy.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:34:56 AM UTC

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Murphy takes slim lead (0.00 / 0)

50 -50
Murphy: 33,495
Tedisco 33,281

280 out of 610

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:35:29 AM UTC

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Murphy won Stephentown easy (4.00 / 2)

Murphy: 374
Tedisco: 286

I predict NY-20 final results reflect a similar margin when it is all said and done.

Town Clerk was ordered to impound everything and take it personally to County BoE. Nuts. Simply makes the woman drive all the way across county late at night after a long day for nothing. Tedisco is such a loser.

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:37:38 AM UTC

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Its entirely appropriate (0.00 / 0)

And if we are losing by 150 votes at the end of the night, you better damn well believe I want those votes in the hands of the bipartisan BoE rather than at the whims of mostly Republican Town Clerks.

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:41:46 AM UTC

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Johnsburg... (0.00 / 0)

271-233 for Murphy.

Don't know about the absentee numbers, though.

by: RonV @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:44:42 AM UTC

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Turnout pretty much at 70% of '06 levels everywhere... (0.00 / 0)

...except Otsego (55%) and Dutchess (60%).

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:40:34 AM UTC

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Dutchess 62/72 (0.00 / 0)

51-49 Murphy. '06 was 55-45 Gillibrand. Turnout 60% of '06 levels.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:42:54 AM UTC

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We're losing to big in Saratoga (0.00 / 0)

If that doesn't move we cant make it up elsewhere.

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:44:16 AM UTC

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My guess is we'll lose by a small enough margin... (0.00 / 0)

...that we'll be able to blame it on crappy turnout in Dutchess & Columbia counties.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:45:01 AM UTC

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Latest precincts in Saratoga... (0.00 / 0)

...have been going ever so slightly for Murphy.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:46:26 AM UTC

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Last 13 Saratoga precincts in... (0.00 / 0)

...went 53-47 Murphy. If the rest of the county is like this we stand a good chance of winning.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:48:09 AM UTC

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Dutchess 100% in (0.00 / 0)

52-48 Murphy. 581 vote plurality. TO 61% of '06.

http://www.dutchesselections.c...

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:53:16 AM UTC

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That's about 300 fewer votes (0.00 / 0)

margin wise than 50%+1 would suppose getting out of Dutchess....

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:55:46 AM UTC

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Not looking good. (0.00 / 0)

it's looking likely that too much of what's left is in Saratoga County to close this gap.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:55:38 AM UTC

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agreed (0.00 / 0)

got a bad feelin'

TODAY is day one. It always is.

by: phillip anderson @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:59:42 AM UTC

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1,000 vote margin... (0.00 / 0)

with
* 1/2 of Delaware (bad for Murphy)
* more than 1/2 of Columbia (good for Murphy)
* 43 precincts in Saratoga (depends on where the precincts are)
* 5 precincts in Essex & Washington (good for Murphy)
* 4 precincts in Greene (bad for Murphy)

We can't close that gap unless we carry the remaining Saratoga precincts.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:58:08 AM UTC

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well.... (0.00 / 0)

there are some 5k+ absentee ballots to be counted...are they included in these results?

We've got some work ahead of us.

by: NYBri @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:58:18 AM UTC

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I don't know... (0.00 / 0)

...but even if they aren't, we'll need to carry them at least 60-40 to have any chance.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:00:26 AM UTC

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Actually we may need more like 56% or 57%... (0.00 / 0)

...because late Saratoga precincts aren't adding to Tedisco's margins

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:07:39 AM UTC

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Its really unlikely (0.00 / 0)

although not impossible.

Usually Small counties count absentees they have day of, but the courts probably told them to leave them sealed so that they can be challenged before they are opened.

Also, hundreds and maybe thousands more will come in over the next week, US ballots are accepted til the 7th and international til the 14th.

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:02:40 AM UTC

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Absentee's will not (4.00 / 1)

be included in these numbers. Procedure probably varies from county to county but generally absentees are very contentious and are canvassed by the full Board of Elections staff with Judges and representatives from all campaigns and parties involved several days after the election itself.

We may well be facing a situation where we don't know the final result for some time.

Remember also the DoD/DoJ requirement to extend the period for military ballots to come in. I believe they moved that date to April 13.

This is much closer then I expected. I am very surprised to see Tedisco doing anywhere near as well as he did.

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:13:13 AM UTC

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If that's the case... (0.00 / 0)

...then we won't have a winner tonight.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:14:35 AM UTC

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Machine canvassing could (4.00 / 1)

change some numbers before absentees are counted.

Also, the State BoE reports that about 10,000 absentees were sent out. Only about 6,000 returned so far. Lots more could be on their way.

by: RonV @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 03:20:39 AM UTC

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Another 20 from Saratoga (0.00 / 0)

Tedisco adds 427 to the lead. Game over.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 01:59:42 AM UTC

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4 more... (0.00 / 0)

+184 Murphy...but probably too little, too late.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:04:03 AM UTC

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I'm not there yet (0.00 / 0)

We're running 6% back of 2008 in Saratoga but about even everywhere else. Why? Are we missing the Bluest districts? possible.

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:04:44 AM UTC

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Tedisco's from Saratoga. (0.00 / 0)

We overperformed in the North Country, and slightly underperformed in Hudson Valley thanks to turnout suckage.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:10:50 AM UTC

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Tedisco is NOT (0.00 / 0)

from Saratoga. He is from Schenectady which is out of the district.

Part of his Assembly district extends into Saratoga County but most of it is also Schenectady County where he lives.

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:18:18 AM UTC

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Other Election Resources (0.00 / 0)

Available: http://natchgreyes.blogspot.com

by: NatchGreyes @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:03:09 AM UTC

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Doesn't look good (0.00 / 0)

Tedisco was a terrible candidate with one big edge: Republicans tend to vote in special elections.

But, keep hope alive.

by: Jim Ostrowski @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:04:36 AM UTC

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If your guy was on the ballot Tedisco would be 2-3% behind his current numbers. (0.00 / 0)

Those Republicans. I dont even know what to say.

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:06:10 AM UTC

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not necessarily true... (0.00 / 0)

see Aubertine's special election victory last year.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:08:55 AM UTC

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This is staying much closer (0.00 / 0)

than I personally anticipated. Stephentown has been a very good indicator for the district as a whole in recent years.

Murphy won Dutchess and Essex with all precincts accounted for. Columbia still has a ways to go.

I am very sorry to report that we lost Rensselaer County narrowly. That surprises and disappoints me.

We have got to pick up more votes in Saratoga and maintain our large edge in Columbia (56-44).

Still down about 1k.

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:05:17 AM UTC

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We're gonna end the first count down (0.00 / 0)

300 votes. Write it down.

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:10:01 AM UTC

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It's only 30 (0.00 / 0)

at the moment.

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:15:30 AM UTC

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Holy Shit! (0.00 / 0)

Delaware County went 50-50!! (versus 54-46 Sweeney in '06). We could win this sucker!!!

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:13:47 AM UTC

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A lot of Columbia County just came in (4.00 / 1)

and the vote narrowed considerably!

Murphy: 74,221
Tedisco: 74,251

!!!

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:14:20 AM UTC

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Saratoga Elections site has 185 of 188 in (0.00 / 0)

Tedisco +60.

3 pcts left from Saratoga
8 pcts left from Columbia

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:15:41 AM UTC

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+60 votes? (0.00 / 0)

or 60% of votes?

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:16:51 AM UTC

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No, Tedisco is up by 60 votes... (0.00 / 0)

...with 3 to report in Saratoga and 8 in Columbia.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:18:03 AM UTC

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Crap. (0.00 / 0)

Tedisco picked up another 200 from just 2 precincts in Saratoga County.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:19:12 AM UTC

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I'm showing Murphy up (0.00 / 0)

by 76,573 to 76,321 with 3 precincts in Saratoga still to report. All of Columbia now in.

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:19:37 AM UTC

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8 precincts in Columbia County and (0.00 / 0)

11 in Saratoga County still to go.

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:14:51 AM UTC

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Franken-Coleman (0.00 / 0)

here we come.

Fuckin'-A.

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:16:02 AM UTC

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Right now (0.00 / 0)

A 30 vote margin. Really? God almighty.

Buffalopundit blog at WNYMedia.net

by: buffalopundit @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:17:09 AM UTC

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Ahead by 300 votes (0.00 / 0)

Murphy's going to make it, ahead by 300 votes

by: NatchGreyes @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:19:17 AM UTC

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Murphy is up by 260 with 3 precincts left (0.00 / 0)

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:18:09 AM UTC

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Murphy is up by 260 with 3 precincts left (0.00 / 0)

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:18:09 AM UTC

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This is quite literally (0.00 / 0)

Like watching a race at Aqueduct

Buffalopundit blog at WNYMedia.net

by: buffalopundit @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:19:34 AM UTC

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1 precinct left from Saratoga. (0.00 / 0)

Murphy up 49.

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:20:13 AM UTC

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fastest Saratoga results here: http://66.195.74.98/ (0.00 / 0)

http://66.195.74.98/

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:22:35 AM UTC

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81 (0.00 / 0)

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:22:50 AM UTC

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they're adjusting vote totals in other counties. absentee ballots, perhaps? (0.00 / 0)

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:25:11 AM UTC

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Again (4.00 / 1)

Having worked at a BOE, only an Election Commissioner looking to get sued would open an absentee ballot in a race this close without at least 16 lawyers present.

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:27:15 AM UTC

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Its most likely (4.00 / 2)

The method of counting:

Results are read off of machines by Person A to Person B who writes them down.

Person B calls the BOE and reads the results to Person C at the BOE, who writes them down

Person C gives the sheet to person D who types them into a computer.

9 chances for error:
Person A misreads
Person A misspeaks
Person B mishears
Person B miswrites
Person B misreads
Person C mishears
Person C miswrites
Person D misreads
Person D mistypes

They are checking for these errors as we speak. Thats why election night canvasses are strictly for informational purposes and are entirely unofficial.

by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:31:02 AM UTC

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1 precinct left (0.00 / 0)

and we're up by 81 votes.

Wow!

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:22:40 AM UTC

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what a night (0.00 / 0)

by: Hopeful in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:25:02 AM UTC

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Hey Hopeful (4.00 / 1)

Good to see you across the river. :)

We've got some work ahead of us.

by: NYBri @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:29:15 AM UTC

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fun to "visit" my home state of my 1st 18 years (0.00 / 0)

by: Hopeful in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:36:08 AM UTC

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Thank God Brookhaven Supervisor was not this close (4.00 / 3)

294 Election Districts reported out of 294 100.00% 100.00%
40,540 Votes cast out of 284,836 14.23% 14.23%
Candidate Party Votes

Share
LESKO, MARK J Democratic 20,144 49.69% 49.69%
Working Families 2,201 5.43% 5.43%
Total 22,345 55.12% 55.12%
MAZZEI, TIMOTHY P Republican 13,487 33.27% 33.27%
Independence 1,597 3.94% 3.94%
Conservative 3,111 7.67% 7.67%
Total 18,195 44.88% 44.88%

by: politics64 @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:30:52 AM UTC

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care to write this one up? (0.00 / 0)

this is a big win.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

by: phillip anderson @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:32:00 AM UTC

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Sure will (0.00 / 0)

by: politics64 @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:38:41 AM UTC

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Diary done Phillip (4.00 / 1)

by: politics64 @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 03:10:56 AM UTC

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thanks (0.00 / 0)

you rock.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

by: phillip anderson @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 04:37:10 AM UTC

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Sundwall (4.00 / 1)

M won Columbia Co. by 2000.

I'd like to think Eric's endorsement pulled some votes there.

by: Jim Ostrowski @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:32:22 AM UTC

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last precinct (0.00 / 0)

152-136 Tedisco. Murphy +65

by: Scott in NJ @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:35:51 AM UTC

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Last Saratoga precinct came in... (0.00 / 0)

by my math, Tedisco only netted 16 more votes. We won for tonight!

by: GallatinDan @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:36:43 AM UTC

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Last district is in (0.00 / 0)

Tedisco gained 152. Murphy gained 136. That means Murphy still has a narrow lead of what about 66?

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:37:27 AM UTC

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65 vote lead (0.00 / 0)

by: Andrew C. White @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:37:44 AM UTC

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Go to bed (0.00 / 0)

The Times-Union reports almost 6,000 absentee ballots, and overseas military ballots can still come in for the next two weeks.

It's gonna be a long, long count.

by: Dan Jacoby @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:42:23 AM UTC

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Prediction time, folks... (4.00 / 1)

What do you expect to hear in Jimmy Disco's speech?

I expect references to God and pork. I also expect lot of bad basketball metaphors.

This thing will drag on for weeks...do we have any sense of which counties the absentee ballots are coming from? Or how many are military ballots?

by: GallatinDan @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 02:43:31 AM UTC

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Columbia County Results (0.00 / 0)

For detailed Columbia County results, go to http://ccscoop.com/news/09marc...

by: dmooreny @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 11:54:31 AM UTC

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Official NY-20 Results Thread | 77 comments

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