| First, about the spinning going on:
While we Dems can and do tout the GOP's registration advantage on our side of the spin equation, the other side can come back quickly with these numbers:
* Obama won here by a larger margin (3 points) last Fall;
* Gillibrand won here by a larger margin in 2006 (5 points) in 2006.
* Gillibrand won here by a much larger margin (24 points) last Fall;
Each of these items could be cited by Republicans to imply underperformance by Murphy, or some disenchantment with Obama.
They can use these same figures to point out that the oft-touted registration advantage here has not been a "sure thing" for the GOP for a while now. (There are, after all, a lot of so-called Rockefeller Republicans and people who registered in the party in order to get a job in the GOP patronage mill during the Pataki years).
I think they would be fudging, but that's the likely pushback.
Dems can of course continue to say (as many here have been) that Murphy came back from an initial 20-point deficit. But that deficit could be readily ascribed to a name recognition gain, overcome somewhat inevitably with ad dollars and publicity, and we were back to the same baseline numbers going into election day (Murphy up by 2%) as Gillibrand had against Sweeney.
Meanwhile, I bet that Republicans are leaving the spin to Limbaugh, while they get busy assembling lawyers (is Spargo on retainer for Tedisco yet?) and funding for a ballot-by-ballot review. What's the battle plan for the Murphy side?
My suggestion would to spend less time patting oneself on the back over a tie, and more time gearing up for the intense ballot skirmishes ahead. I'm trying to do my part by offering my own experience (having been through these battles before) and past memos on absentee ballot analysis to my County chair. |
