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Q-poll: McCarthy ahead of Gillibrand

by: Hudson

Tue Apr 07, 2009 at 13:48:34 PM EDT

A new poll released yesterday (April 6th, 2009) by Quinnipiac finds that Paterson's appointee to replace Hillary Clinton as the junior Senator from New York, is slipping behind the only potential Democratic primary challenger to indicate her intention to run:

"In a Democratic primary matchup, [U.S. Sen. Kirsten] Gillibrand trails U.S. Rep. Carolyn McCarthy 33 - 29 percent, with 33 percent undecided.

Hudson :: Q-poll: McCarthy ahead of Gillibrand

It is important to note that neither McCarthy nor Gillibrand is well-known to voters, with about two-thirds (64% Gillibrand, 68% McCarthy) saying they don't really have enough information about either yet.

To that extent, this result is particularly tough for Gillibrand, as she has been far more in the news in recent months than McCarthy, due to the national profile of the Paterson decision. That voters would narrowly prefer McCarthy at this stage despite nearly 7 in 10 not knowing much about her suggests that Gillibrand has a tough row to hoe against any generic Democrat in a primary.

664 Democrats were polled, with a margin of error of 3.8% (which means that this could be a tie at best for Gillibrand, or McCarthy could be up as much as ~8 points).

NOTE #1: The poll also finds that Cuomo would beat Paterson for Governor in 2010, by a whopping 61%-18%.

NOTE #2: The New York Times has just misreported this number, reversing the Gillibrand and McCarthy figures. The error has been pointed out to the Times in its reader comments, and presumably be corrected. The numbers can be verified at the Quinnipiac site, where the full release can be read:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x131...

Poll

Do you welcome a Democratic primary for this seat in 2010?

YES, because primaries produce stronger candidates
YES, because Gillibrand is not progressive enough
MAYBE, depending on who decides to run
NO, because I am satisfied with Gillibrand
NO, because a primary might help the GOP

Results

Tags: Primary, 2010, McCarthy, Gillibrand, (All Tags)

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Q-poll: McCarthy ahead of Gillibrand | 5 comments

Cross-posted at Kos (4.00 / 1)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

by: Hudson @ Tue Apr 07, 2009 at 18:00:42 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

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Its too early to jump to conclusions (4.00 / 1)

Yes Gillibrand has received a lot of press recently but you must remember that McCarthy has been around for a long time so she should have a significant start in name recognition.

Considering Gillibrand's blistering fundraising and her already significant warchest, I'm sure she'll be able to close the name recognition gap (and improve her poll numbers).

But at this point, with more people concerned with the economy, I don't think low name recognition is a big deal. People have more pressing concerns right now.

by: sabachi @ Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 00:13:34 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

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Despite what you'll read on here... (0.00 / 0)

...this is not an upstate/downstate battle. Real progressives have become tired of Blue Dogs, New Democrats, and the DLC. They want to elect other progressives to office. And as Jane Hamsher says, you're going to see a lot of these Democrats primaried in '10.

Thus, Paterson's pick of someone who's got a 100 Rating from the National Rifle Association almost necessitates a primary election in a state like New York. And considering the tragedy in Binghampton, Gillibrand would have a hard time repositioning herself as the gun-control advocate against a candidate like McCarthy. As my used to say, "she's got some splainin' ta do."

For the record, and despite what NYBri says on here, I'm still very undecided.

by: cliffweathers @ Fri Apr 10, 2009 at 19:57:41 PM UTC

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That would be an awfully strange "progressive" primary challenge. (0.00 / 0)

McCarthy is to the right of Gillibrand on a huge number of critical issues, particularly gay marriage, healthcare reform, and the war. I don't see why people get worked up over Gillibrand opposing the return of the Assault Weapons Ban when both the Speaker and the Senate Majority Leader as well as a bunch of others have said it's a non-starter.

by: Adama @ Sun Apr 12, 2009 at 04:27:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Depends on your progressive meter (0.00 / 0)

I don't see why people get worked up over Gillibrand opposing the return of the Assault Weapons Ban when both the Speaker and the Senate Majority Leader as well as a bunch of others have said it's a non-starter.

It shows me that our Democratic leaders lacked courage. They still, and incorrectly, see their majority as weak and their base as being moderate. In almost every poll I've seen a majority of Americans favor the Assault Weapons Ban; unfortunately these people are not organized like the NRA.

As for McCarthy being to the right of Gillibrand, I would have to disagree, although I call neither one of them a progressive. I have stated that I am undecided because I really feel that Cuomo should run (and then I would be solidly behind him). Overall, he is not only the strongest candidate, but the most progressive possible candidate.

by: cliffweathers @ Sun Apr 12, 2009 at 17:05:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]