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NY-20: Murphy Up By 49, Columbia County Is 'Make Or Break' Says GOP

by: phillip anderson

Fri Apr 10, 2009 at 12:18:33 PM EDT


The numbers in the NY-20 recount have been moving all over the place but the latest count shows a 49 vote lead for Democrat Scott Murphy.

The official state results show that Murphy has taken an eight-vote lead as of 4:30 p.m. ET yesterday, as absentee ballots begin to be counted. However, there is some more recent data that shows Murphy's lead is actually somewhat larger at the moment.

Columbia County has provided their latest numbers to TPM, showing Murphy picking up another 15 net votes, on a 99-42 margin, compared to the 55-13 in the state's current tally of absentees from here. In addition, the Albany Times Union reports that Murphy has picked up 26 votes, an 88-62 margin, in Essex County.

So as of right now, Scott Murphy leads by 49 votes -- though there are still plenty of ballots left to count.

I'm sure these numbers will change even before I have a chance to post this, but I do like the fact that Murphy seems to performing really well among absentees.

Now, as I'm sure you know thanks to Hudson's reports, the situation in Columbia County is getting dicier by the minute. It appears that there have been 141 paper ballots counted in Columbia County and 93 ballot challenges, the vast majority of those challenges coming from the Republicans. They are challenging unopened ballots mailed from NYC left and right. Why are they doing this? Because, in their own words, Columbia County is "Make or break" for them.

Forty-nine votes were challenged by campaign lawyers and six votes were rendered void Thursday. Ninety-three votes have been challenged in total. Information was not provided on how many challenges came from each campaign. A total of nine votes have been voided so far.

Washington attorney and former President Reagan White House counsel David Nolan has been acting as a volunteer attorney for the Tedisco campaign, and says though the numbers are currently going in Murphy's favor, the Democrat has not widened the gap enough in the county to pull out a victory in the entire 20th District.

"How I see it, is that Columbia County is make or break," Nolan said Thursday night. "I think we are over the top and have weathered the storm."

Nolan says the republicans have been making most of the challenges over the past two days and the majority have been related to ballots from people who are registered to vote in Columbia County but whose driver's licenses state that they live in New York City.

Saratoga County has yet to report anything and that's where the lion's share of paper ballots are, but it looks as if the real battle is in Columbia County where this race could very well be won or lost.

On the web: Protect NY-20.

phillip anderson :: NY-20: Murphy Up By 49, Columbia County Is 'Make Or Break' Says GOP
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Question... (4.00 / 1)
I read somewhere that all ballot challenges must be taken before a judge & ruled on within three days.  If the three days pass, then the ballots are automatically opened.  Anyone know if this is true?

That IS indeed how it works. As long as both BoE commissioners voted (4.00 / 1)
to count them in the paper canvass.   After three days, the result of the two Commissioners' actions is carried out unless a judge says differently.  If they both voted to count them, they would be counted, if the split-ruled, or if both voted not to count them, then they are not counted ever unless a judge say so.

Generally: The commissioners' ruling stands unless a judge decides otherwise.

Anyone know what the BoElections commissioners' ruling has been on the absentees in Columbia?  It's hard to imagine the BoE NOT accepting absentee ballots that they must have decided were valid, when they obviously accepted the absentee application by mailing the ballots out in the first place.


[ Parent ]
My understanding is that the Columbia BoE Commissioners have been split. (4.00 / 1)
So based on what you're saying, that means that the challenged ballots go into limbo?  For how long?  Is there any kind of time limit?

[ Parent ]
They started out agreeing, then split. (4.00 / 3)
The GOP Commissioner started out doing the right thing, then got taken outside by a Tedisco goon and he started toeing the party line. He didn't show up the next day, so his Deputy had to do the dirty work of upholding bogus challenges.

Note that a 1-1 tie goes to the voter.


[ Parent ]
And, as such, they will only be counted if ordered so by a judge. (0.00 / 0)
Within three days.

[ Parent ]
are you sure about that one??? (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
As far as the three-day deadline... (4.00 / 1)
I can't find the citation in the infamously bizantine and contradictory Election Law. Anyone got a citation for this?

If there is such a deadline, my recollection that it is a deadline to file a formal appeal. I don't think the judge has to rule within three days.

The formal appeal has to set forth actual evidence and how the challenger came to know it. I believe it requires a signed affidavit; false information provided by a challenger would then be a misdemeanor...


[ Parent ]
If the commissioners are split... (4.00 / 2)
then a judge has to rule that the ballot should be counted, otherwise it doesn't count.

If the commissioners agree that the ballot is valid, but the challenger insists, then under something called the "O'Keefe rule" the ballot is counted, then put back in the envelope for a judge to take a look at it (and possibly invalidate it).

This info from a friend who was in Delaware and Otsego counties for a few days, and also worked on the Padavan/Gennaro challenges for the weeks of that count.


[ Parent ]
*** The Columbia numbers as they stand on Friday *** (4.00 / 1)
No counting occurred today. Here is where things stand so far, from a reliable source... The totals at the end of the day Thursday in Columbia were:

99 counted for Murphy;
42 counted for Tedisco;
83 challenged;
9 void;
16 out of 58 election districts complete.

Of the 83 challenged, at most a handful were lodged by Murphy.

I thus would expect Murphy to pick up 50-70 votes from these assuming they get opened. And we're less than 1/3 through the process. It is entirely possible that assuming the courts throw out these spurious challenges eventually, Murphy may come out of this with 150-250 more votes than Tedisco.


[ Parent ]
I sure hope a watchful eye is being kept on Saratoga. (4.00 / 1)
An eyebrow went way up when I saw how (A) that Saratoga's "changed" numbers had dramatically helped to bring Tedisco back into contention a couple days ago, and (B) that Saratoga is refusing to provide a running vote tally.

I'm no tinfoiler, but if there is going to be any funny business in this election, it will be there. I hope there is a strong watchdog effort going on.

I'm also curious if the Tedisco second-home strategy is also happening in Dutchess. There are a ton of weekenders there, too.

All in all, I would like to believe that Murphy's lead will grow large enough that the Tedisco challenges will become irrelevant. But I would prepare for a cage fight to the end here.


Attorneys at the BoE's paper canvass are certainly keeping a close and constant (4.00 / 1)
count amongst themselves.  Hopefully that will keep everything on the up-and-up.

Ballot handling on the other hand is always another question entirely.


[ Parent ]
20th District Absentees (0.00 / 0)
By issuing so many challenges to absentee ballots, the Tedisco campaign is creating a pool of ballots that by defiition is going to break strongly for Murphy if and when they are opened, so Murphy's lead is being understated at the moment.  

Unless the Republican judge decides otherwise. (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
More coverage at Josh Marshall's "Talking Points Memo" (0.00 / 0)
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