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Q Poll: Clinton, Giuliani Crush. Gore, Obama Tied

by: phillip anderson

Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 09:20:51 AM EDT


We're told that moving our presidential primary up to February 5th will make New York relevant to the the selection of our next President, that candidates will be forced to actually campaign for once instead of just dropping into Manhattan to pick up checks. Hooey. I think we all know that moving up our primary date is being done to give a boost to Hillary and Rudy. Now there really can't be much doubt that the chances of serious competition for the Empire State's delegates looks to be less and less likely. New York is an obscenely expensive media market to play in and with all the other states casting votes on the same day, why commit so many resources to a state that looks to be pretty solidly locked up 10 months ahead of time?

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll out this morning, Hillary and Rudy crush all competition here in New York. It's not even close. Oh, and isn't it great that Obama raised all that money from all those people? Not so much here in New York. Obama is tied for second with a guy who isn't even running, one Former Vice President from Tennessee.

Clinton, Giuliani Hold Big Leads In New York State, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gore Catches Obama In Democratic Primary Race

Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani are the pick of their parties in New York State where Sen. Clinton leads Mayor Giuliani 50 - 42 percent in the 2008 presidential campaign, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Clinton tops Arizona Sen. John McCain 55 - 34 percent.

More on the flip...

phillip anderson :: Q Poll: Clinton, Giuliani Crush. Gore, Obama Tied
In other matchups:

In other possible presidential matchups, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University poll finds:

  * Giuliani ties Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 44 - 44 percent
  * 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards tops Giuliani 47 - 43 percent;
  * Clinton over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 61 - 26 percent;
  * Obama beats McCain 47 - 36 percent;
  * Edwards over McCain 52 - 34 percent;
  * Obama beats Romney 53 - 23 percent;
  * Edwards tops Romney 59 - 21 percent.

Hillary absolutely crushes the rest of the Democratic field in New York:

Clinton leads the Democratic primary pack with 44 percent, followed by Obama and former Vice President Al Gore with 14 percent each and Edwards with 9 percent.

And Rudy rules the GOP side with an even greater spread:

Giuliani gets 52 percent of Republicans, followed by McCain with 13 percent, former Gov. George Pataki with 6 percent, Romney at 4 percent and 3 percent each for former Senator and actor Fred Thompson and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Which leads to this question:

"Even if New York moves its presidential primary to February 5, will any of the candidates even bother to campaign here against Giuliani and Clinton?" Carroll asked.

Not likely, especially for Republicans. Keep in mind that on the Republican side of the New York primary, it's winner take all. If you lose by a vote, even after you've poured tons of money into the Manhattan media beast, you get nada, zip, bupkus. With numbers like these,  find it hard to believe that any Republican will make a serious challenge to Rudy here.

Poll
Feb 5 primary:
good idea
bad idea
couldn't care less

Results

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Couple of Quick Observations (0.00 / 0)
Even though Rudy is destroying the GOP field for the primary, his backers have to be less-than-pleased that he can't muster a lead against Obama and falls four points short in a potential matchup against Edwards.  Pretty clearly, there's a lot less love at home, where we of course have memories that extend back before 9/11.

And notably, both Rudy and Hillary have -- by far -- the highest negatives, each with unfavorable ratings of 35%.  Both are too well-known for those numbers to decline to any significant degree.

Finally, while I certainly recognize the importance of the Iraq war as an issue for the 2008 campaign, I'm somewhat frustrated that it absolutely obliterates every other issue from contention.  Iraq is named as "the most important issue for the next president to deal with" by 53%, whereas healthcare rates only 11%, the economy 5%, and education and the environment clocking in at 2% each.

Frankly, I'd fear that too much attention on dealing with Iraq (to the exclusion of anything else) may result in a failure by any successful candidate to be able to claim a mandate for any and all domestic issues.  Let's be blunt:  this nation is going to hell in a handbasket these days, and ending the disastrous war in Iraq will do precious little to ameliorate much of what's been neglected on the home front.


well... (0.00 / 0)
It's early.  If someone not-Clinton pulls off wins in earlier states, the flood of money and free media could translate into gains in states like New York that have been front-shifted in this so-called national primary day.  I totally agree that Hillary's got the massive advantage in NY, but things that are locked up can get unlocked.  Campaigns are barely underway...we've got scandals, debates, shifting fortunes, etc to watch between now and then.

No need to write anything off as locked up yet.

Make no small plans.


I'm not especially for earlier primaries but for (0.00 / 0)
the fact that the time frame from the primary selection to the election would be expanded and I would know where to focus my support money-wise. 

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