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NY-20: Nate Silver Says 'No Apparent Path' To Tedisco Win

by: phillip anderson

Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 09:18:44 AM EDT


Nate Silver once again runs the numbers and finds that Jim Tedisco has "almost no chance of winning" in NY-20.

Based on challenged ballot counts provided by FiveThirtyEight by the Scott Murphy for Congress campaign, it appears that the majority of ballot challenges in the special election in New York's 20th Congressional District were made by the Republican Candidate, Jim Tedisco. As these changes are resolved by election officials, Murphy, the Democrat, will almost certainly add to his current 273-vote lead. He appears bound for a narrow, but relatively unambiguous, victory.

...

At this point, Jim Tedisco's best strategy is to do whatever he needs to do to improve his chances in 2010 and beyond, something that probably requires the right combination of aggrievedness and graciousness. Barring an unanticipated legal intervention, he has almost no chance of winning this election.

It's over, Jim. The people of the 20th have been without their full complement of representation in DC for almost 3 months now. They deserve an end to this.

phillip anderson :: NY-20: Nate Silver Says 'No Apparent Path' To Tedisco Win
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MONDAY: Tedisco's people continue the obstruction campaign (4.00 / 1)
Tedisco's attorneys were grasping at straws again this morning in Poughkeepsie. Check out this report at Politicker NY:

http://www.politickerny.com/31...

It's telling that the residency (non-) issue is such a settled matter of law that the Murphy folks didn't even feel it necessary to respond...

Not only are there countless court precedents to back up the challenged absentee voters, there is simply nothing in the election law that says that financial considerations such as rent-stabilization or STAR benefits can a factor in determining where one votes. (The latter argument is particularly ironic, because many of the challenged voters are more likely to pay property taxes upstate, where they own homes, than in NYC, where most people rent.)

In fact, the courts have plainly and repeatedly stated that someone who has multiple residences can pick any one of them as their voting place. So long as you don't register and vote in more than one place, you are entitled to exercise that right at the residence of your choosing. It need not be "primary." Indeed, imagine the chaos that would ensue if judges had to determine what constituted "primary" for voters.

On the earlier matter, Tedisco is reaping the bitter fruits of having filed his suit prematurely. By doing so before any votes were cast, rather than going through the normal election challenge procedures, he has completely upended and confused the process. Hence the need for him to go back and re-argue a ruling from his own hand-picked judge.

This all would be hilarious, if it weren't so offensive to the exercise of democracy. Our country can't afford to have every close election become the target of a pre-emptive lawsuit of the kind leveled by Tedisco. But it is likely to become S.O.P. for the G.O.P.


Seems like Team Murphy is confident (4.00 / 1)
there was no reply brief to Tedisco's nonsense, which I take as a good sign that Murphy is operating from a strong position right now.  Judge Brands should rule later this week. And I think he also owes us a residency ruling...

I'm a lawyer, although not an election law lawyer.  Asking the court for a new decision has to be most amateur tactic I've ever heard of.  There's this little thing in the law called "stare decisis."  It's already been decided.  Tedisco's team is basically asking for another bite at the apple.  Our system doesn't work that way.

Further, I think Judge Brands has already given Tedisco another bite at the apple in a sense, by allowing for the verified filing last week.  Another judge who might not be so accomodating might have dismissed their entire suit because nobody but Tedisco has standing.  Instead, they were allowed to file a corrective motion--the one the Rag took at face value.

This whole lawsuit is already a travesty--let's see how deep Brands digs his hole.


[ Parent ]
Any guesses on when (0.00 / 0)
the big fool actually congratulates the winner?  I'll say in the last week in June, when folks start going on vacation....

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