NY-20: Even Tom Reynolds Thinks It's Over

Wasn't Reynolds NY-26? (4.00 / 1)

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by: JFM110 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 19:47:21 PM UTC

Yes, it was NY 26 that he represented (0.00 / 0)

Do you have a point o was that only a question?

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by: politics64 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 20:13:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Correct (4.00 / 1)

Duh. Fixed.

TODAY is day one. It always is.

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by: phillip anderson @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 20:27:24 PM UTC

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Not just turnout, Tom (4.00 / 2)

There's very little chance that Murphy won without garnering a lot of votes from registered Republicans.  He certainly got a lot of "Republican" votes, just as Kirsten Gillibrand no doubt did in 2006 and 2008.

Another trend that Republicans should find disturbing is the trend from Republican to Democratic in the 20th CD.  A year ago, the "active" total was 178k-105k, a difference of 73k.  In November, it was 181k-113k, the gap shrinking to 68k.  As of April 1, the gap had shrunk to 64K.

At that rate, by November of next year the gap will be around 50,000 and shrinking.  Add to that the fact that Scott Murphy will be an incumbent with a year and a half under his belt instead of an unknown, and the district stays blue for quite a while.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 20:28:52 PM UTC

Especially after re-districting (0.00 / 0)

The 20th as currently drawn will no doubt be a thing of the past after 2010 re-districting.  Previously I had assumed the northern part would be added to the 23rd (McHugh-R) but that would unfortunately exclude Murphy who lives in Glens Falls &, unlike Tedisco, actually prefers to live in the district he represents.  It will be interesting to see how the 20th is made bluer without hurting some of the surrounding blue districts, epspecially since NY is losing a district.

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by: tomman77 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 21:06:47 PM UTC

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Bluer as soon as it is safe (0.00 / 0)

I'm pretty certain that part of what happens when previously Republican upstate areas get bluer is a tipping-tipping point phenomenon: once there are enough Democrats in elected office and registered to vote, people who were registered as Republicans for RINO reasons change their registration.  What is a RINO reason to register Republican?  "If I am not registered Republican, my tax assessment will be higher," "If I am not registered Republican, my road will get plowed last," "If I am not registered Republican, I won't have a prayer of selling [product here] to the [jail, county, etc.]," "If I am not registered Republican, the Sheriff will sit outside my bar and bust people for DWI" and so on.  If it sounds ridiculous, you never lived in a small town upstate.  People are afraid of these things because they happen in places where Republicans are in lock-stock-and-barrel control.  These places will turn bluer once people think it is safe.

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by: robinia @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 23:06:47 PM UTC

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I don't think they plow the roads up here according to who's a Democrat... (4.00 / 2)

But I can tell you there's a lot of people who are registered Republican because they have to be in order to keep their jobs. And that's not just political appointee jobs either.  

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by: Adama @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 00:38:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nassau and Suffolk Counties (0.00 / 0)

were that way until very recently.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 01:05:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

FYI: Murphy +365 (4.00 / 1)

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 20:33:23 PM UTC

How many ballots has Murphy challenged? (0.00 / 0)

If he challenged less than 365 ballots, assuming they were for Tedisco, then there's no way Tedisco can win even if all of Tedisco's challengers are upheld and Murphy's aren't.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 20:38:49 PM UTC

I like how Reynolds... (4.00 / 1)

Tries to make it seem like NY-20 will have no reprecussions for either side.

"For the Democrats, bragging rights are what they are and they get momentum for winning a very tough seat for them," Reynolds said. "And the Republicans will try to minimize it, and when all is said and done, the special will have little or no impact for what will happen in 2010."

It will certainly have an impact. We are only 18 months away from the 2010 midterms. This race was being considered a comeback venture for the GOP and now that they lost, it will only reinforce what everyone has known since 2006: The country is sick of the Republican Party.  

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by: robert.harding @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 20:39:22 PM UTC

I think this was a nice way of saying (4.00 / 1)

"It means nothing has changed."
which in essence means the GOP is still in the toilet.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 20:46:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Judge Brands can do a lot of harm beyond NY-20 (4.00 / 1)

With Murphy now up +365, I now doubt that even the GOP-friendly Judge Brands can save Tedisco. The numbers just aren't there for Jimmy 'Disco.

However, Brands' actions could have wide-ranging effects statewide, and need to be watched.

Politicker-NY has used the phrase "clarified" to describe Judge Brands' new ruling, which is a very nice way of saying that the Judge is backtracking, fast. One wonders what kind of ex parte pressure he's been under.

Brands is in a position do a lot of mischief in the 20th District and indeed to statewide elections by setting a dangerous new precedent on second-home voters. The right of people to vote at any one of their homes (if they have more than one) is well-established in the State, yet Brands seems to be trying to get a new set of standards in the backdoor method of saying "Let's rule on a case-by-case basis," rather than rejecting Tedisco's residency challenges wholesale -- as he should have.

If he does, it would help Republican candidates in Dutchess, Columbia and other counties with second-home voters immensely in future elections, even if (when) J.D. loses this one.

I'm not sure if this judge is corrupt, or just kind of dumb. Maybe both. But we don't hear the Tedisco camp calling him an "activist," as it would if he were a Democratic appointee ruling against them.

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by: Hudson @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 21:14:38 PM UTC

Sam Seder's vote was challenged... (0.00 / 0)

Seder's vote was challenged by Tedisco here in Columbia County; the irony being that Seder was the foreman of a Columbia County jury just four days before...

Per Sam's Twitter feed:

http://www.twitter.com/samseder

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by: Hudson @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 01:20:14 AM UTC

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Reynolds just announced a new gig (4.00 / 2)

Liz Benjamin reports that Reynolds has signed on as a lobbyist with Nixon Peabody (http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/04/reynolds-new-job.html). The only surprise is that it took him so long to land a spot on K-Street. He was a lobbyist-in-waiting his entire career. Must have been his extreme competence (not) as NRCC chair that made firms so eager to pick him up.

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by: Historical Pessimist @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 22:20:47 PM UTC

Nixon Peabody are a nasty bunch. (0.00 / 0)

I saw several of their attorneys in action during a series hearings before the Army Corps of Engineers some years ago. They weren't particularly bright or clever litigators, but they were plenty nasty toward citizens trying to be heard -- and knowing that the Corps was in their corner from the get-go made them even more arrogant and dismissive.

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by: Hudson @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 01:24:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]