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Congressman Israel To Challenge Gillibrand in Primary

by: BingChester

Mon May 11, 2009 at 18:20:05 PM EDT


CQ Politics has the scoop; Congressman Steve Israel is telling the New York Congressional delegation that he'll challenge Senator Gillibrand in the 2010 Democratic primary.  His challenge represents a serious threat to Gillibrand's political life.  Unfortunately for progressives, he doesn't represent the type of challenge from the left that some of us crave.

More below the fold.

BingChester :: Congressman Israel To Challenge Gillibrand in Primary
Rep. Steve Israel has told fellow members of New York's congressional delegation that he will challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a Democratic primary in 2010, congressional aides said Monday.

"An announcement is imminent," said one aide to a Democratic member of the New York delegation.

Israel's spokeswoman said there are no plans for such an announcement this week. "The only announcement the congressman has planned for this week is about a Smart Grid proposal for Long Island," Lindsay Hamilton said in an e-mail.

Israel, a 50-year-old in his 5th term from Long Island's 2nd District, represents the most serious threat thus far to Gillibrand, who was appointed to the seat by New York Gov. David Paterson earlier this year when Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (2001-2009) became secretary of State. Israel also was in the running for the appointment.

source

The problem for progressives should be apparent;  Congressman Israel is not the type of primary challenge we'd want to Senator Gillibrand.  

First, I'm not quite certain that we even need a primary challenge to our junior Senator.  She's tacked to the left in the past few months, which was logical for someone representing the state of New York compared to the 20th District.  Today she announced support for the public option in health care reform.  She's also moderated her stance on immigration.  Quite frankly, Senator Gillibrand has moved to a moderate-left position and seems to be in the mainstream of New York.

Meanwhile, I don't see Congressman Israel as substantially different than Senator Gillibrand.  In fact one could argue he's to her right on the spectrum.

 But Israel was, like Gillibrand, a rare northeastern member of the fiscally moderate Blue Dog Coalition until last election cycle and backed President George W. Bush 's tax cuts in 2001. He voted for the Republican-written prescription-drug bill on its first trip through the House in 2003 but opposed the law's final passage later that year.

Israel supported Bush's position 48 percent of the time in 2001, a figure that dropped to 4 percent in 2007 before moving back up to 15 percent in 2008. His party unity scores-the rate at which he backed the Democratic position on votes that split the parties-rose steadily from 82 percent in 2001 to 99 percent in 2008.

Gillibrand, who served just two years in the House, supported Bush 6 percent of the time in 2007 and 22 percent of the time in 2008. Her party unity scores were 90 percent in 2007 and 91 percent in 2008.

The goal for progressives was to challenge Senator Gillibrand from the left and either pull her further left or supplant her with an accurate representation of those views.  Now, any move we make will be in competition with a challenge to Senator Gillibrand's right.

In the end, this challenge might manifest itself geographically instead of ideologically.

What do you think?

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The more the merrier? (4.00 / 1)
Not knowing enough about Israel to evaluate him as a candidate yet, I guess the questions that comes to mind are:

1. How many candidates will run in the primary?

2. Do a true progressive's chances increase with more candidates, or decrease?

My initial hunch is that Gillibrand, despite her low approval ratings (19% at last check), as the quasi-incumbent who will have the endorsements of the establishment Democrats in the State, would be likely to capture a minimum of 30-35% of the primary vote.

If there are a ton of candidates -- let's say five -- that ought to help Gillibrand because it would be hard for anyone (except, say, Andrew Cuomo, who is more likely to run for Governor, it seems) to then crack 35%.

Israel might scramble the dynamic in a three- or even four-person race by peeling off some more "centrist" Dems from Gillibrand, but also peeling off some downstate Dems away from another candidate such as Maloney.

Overall there seems like just too many variables right now to make much sense of the news about Israel.

As for Gillibrand shifting to the left: I'd prefer a candidate who doesn't have to shift anywhere to get into the mainstream of New York Democrats.


Here's the issue on shifting (4.00 / 2)
It's unrealistic to expect anyone to act like a strong progressive in a +R district.  On that regard Gillibrand was a great rep for NY-20.  The issues she took to the right on are issues that a lot of suburban Democrats care about; gun rights, closing the borders, being "a fiscal hawk".  Gillibrand was never really on the Bush Dog list or any other list of bad Democratic reps since 2006.

If we want our representatives to, you know, represent us, then we should assume they'll take positions in line with their district that aren't necessarily their own points.  So we could assume that Gillibrand is actually more moderate on immigration than she acted when she was in NY-20.

So while I agree that I'd rather not have a representative that needs to shift, I also recognize political reality.  The question that's more important to me is what's Gillibrand's true political ideology?  Is she a mainstream, left of center Democrat or a conserva-dem?


[ Parent ]
Here's the issue on shifting (0.00 / 0)
It's unrealistic to expect anyone to act like a strong progressive in a +R district.  On that regard Gillibrand was a great rep for NY-20.  The issues she took to the right on are issues that a lot of suburban Democrats care about; gun rights, closing the borders, being "a fiscal hawk".  Gillibrand was never really on the Bush Dog list or any other list of bad Democratic reps since 2006.

If we want our representatives to, you know, represent us, then we should assume they'll take positions in line with their district that aren't necessarily their own points.  So we could assume that Gillibrand is actually more moderate on immigration than she acted when she was in NY-20.

So while I agree that I'd rather not have a representative that needs to shift, I also recognize political reality.  The question that's more important to me is what's Gillibrand's true political ideology?  Is she a mainstream, left of center Democrat or a conserva-dem?


[ Parent ]
Hudson, what makes you think Gillibrand isn't in the mainstream of NY Dems? (0.00 / 0)
I think you're suffering from the "But everyone I know voted for McGovern" syndrome. I hate to keep belaboring OnTheIssues.org, but the voting record really is the measure of the candidate:

http://www.ontheissues.org/NY/...


[ Parent ]
Yup. (0.00 / 0)
My also be very instructive to look at the book The Big Sort.  We have a tendency to locate ourselves in places that reflect our values and politics.... and then have no personal contact with, as well as no understanding for, others who are different.

I have a hunch that my neighbors, here in ultra-blue Tompkins County, might find a candidate you preferred "mainstream," but not people living in any of the surrounding counties...


[ Parent ]
There lies the thing about Gillibrand... (4.00 / 1)
It's no secret I live in Wyoming County, one of the reddest parts of the state. But even considering that, I think that Gillibrand would be easier to sell here than any other candidate, which is the big reason to support her. Her savvy on upstate issues such as farming, on rural-friendly causes like urban sprawl and hunters' rights, make it infinitely easier to sell her to the moderate/right-leaning voters out here despite her stance on things like gay marriage and the war.  

[ Parent ]
And I think that's healthy for NYS (4.00 / 1)
I'm from downstate (although I went to SUNY Binghamton) but I always feel a little uncomfortable when New York is represented in the Senate by mainly downstate interests.  Chuck Schumer is definitely a metropolitan guy and some of his key issues relate to Wall Street.  While Hillary made it a point to focus on jobs for upstate, I don't think she was ever fully in touch with the rural and suburban needs of upstate New York.  I think it's healthy that those interests are well-represented by Senator Gillibrand.

[ Parent ]
Moynihan understood upstate pretty well (0.00 / 0)
he spent a lot of time in Delaware County, but other than him, every Senator who has served, at least in my lifetime, was city-centric; Javitz, D'Amato, Schumer, Clinton. Schumer gives upstate a good amount of attention, but I don't know if he really understands Upstate. D'Amato couldn't care less about anyone north of Newburgh...they were going to vote for him anyway because he was a Republican.

Clinton did her best, she definitely didn't ignore Upstate, but she was pretty city-centric, but she did seem to understand the issues places like Buffalo and Syracuse dealt with.  


[ Parent ]
Schumer does all the little things right (0.00 / 0)
When I worked for him he had his staff doing about 1/3 of their work on Upstate issues, 1/3 on NYC area issues, and 1/3 on Federal issues (not including his committee staff). His staff was also surprisingly diversified regionally, which helps (the inner circle was all from his old CD office, as you might expect).

I think he does a great job for upstate, and I think that was reflected in his 62-county victory in 2004.


[ Parent ]
I think that was a lesson he learned from D'Amato (0.00 / 0)
D'Amato was so focused soley on the city and Long Island, my guess is Schumer wanted to show Upstate that a Democrat would pay attention to them even if they don't usually vote for them.

I remember discussing Upstate in college concerning Bernadette Castro in 1994...that if she had paid more attention to Upstate during the campaign, she might have had a shot at winning since she managed to win Long Island, but lost Upstate in Binghamton, Syracuse, Albany, Rochester, Buffalo and along the Quebec border.  


[ Parent ]
I believe Fred Dicker had the scoop, (0.00 / 0)
such as it is, reporting the same stuff from anonymous types yesterday.

He also had this delicious detail today:

US Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand wasn't surprised to learn last week that Suffolk County US Rep. Steve Israel was planning to announce as soon as today that he'll challenge her in next year's Democratic primary.

Firstly, the two haven't spoken since late January, when Paterson picked the former Albany-area congresswoman to succeed Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Senate. And secondly, there was the matter of a runaway e-mail.

Israel, a source said, sent an e-mail to several political allies in the wake of her selection, saying, "Gillibrand says she wants to be able to work with me? Ha, ha, ha."

But Israel also sent a copy, apparently by accident, to Gillibrand."

Hudson -- FWIW, I think Gillibrand will get 40+ in what's shaping up to be a three- or four-candidate primary.

She'd get 55+ in a two-person race.


That part about speaking can't be true (4.00 / 1)
The two of them appeared together at Buffalo for NYSUT's yearly conference.  I find it quite hard to believe they didn't speak at that point, especially considering the picture in this story:

http://www.buffalonews.com/cit...

Generally, I don't trust Fred Dicker.


[ Parent ]
Here's what I suspect will happen (0.00 / 0)
A bunch of people will announce their intention to run, form campaign committees, set up websites, issue press releases, etc. in the next six months.

Depending on polling and traction, some of those who are trailing will leverage their 5-10% support to earn cred points/concessions/favors from the front-runners, dropping out and endorsing whoever looks most likely to win.

In the end I'd be surprised if more than three stay with it.

And I don't think Gillibrand would fare well in a head-to-head with a solid candidate to her left, but we're all just spitballing and making up numbers here.  


[ Parent ]
You keep rambling to her left, to her left (4.00 / 2)
Every time, to her left.

What exactly do you expect her to do in the next 18 months to make her look so hard right?

I bet she has a 95%+ loyalty rating come next September.


[ Parent ]
Because if you think we're having a vote (4.00 / 2)
On major gun control legislation this year, you're insane. Assault Weapons Ban is 50:1 at this point and everything else 10000:1.

[ Parent ]
Charlie Cook (0.00 / 0)
has a great article on why Democrats gave up on gun control;

http://www.nationaljournal.com...

What I gathered from it was that 1994 exit polling showed the guns were important to union members the Democrats needed and they decided not to touch the issue.


[ Parent ]
This is true. (4.00 / 1)
I actually know a union guy just exactly like that, and there's plenty more blue collar people who would be a perfect target for Democratic policies, save for the issue of guns.

Besides which, there's practicalities. The Assault Weapons Ban really didn't do anything to reduce crime, but it DID greatly reduce the number of Democrats in Congress. Less than 3% of homicides involve rifles of any kind, and less than one percent of crimes involve guns procured at a gun show. The overwhelming majority of crimes involving a gun use standard pistols, purchased illegally from illegal resellers. But that's a law enforcement problem, and isn't high profile enough for people looking to do a press conference about urban violence.

I know I'm a broken record about this, but the real root cause of urban violence is the completely unsexy issue of poverty and economic justice. Switzerland has something like a 40% ownership rate on real live machine guns, but they don't have gang wars there because they don't have the same poverty problem we do.  


[ Parent ]
All Swiss men (0.00 / 0)
are required to own firearms because all Swiss men are in the military reserves automatically, but they must have a permit to carry them outside the home.

But inside the home, there's an entire ammo depot. Something like 420,000 Swiss homes have assault rifles.  


[ Parent ]
I think Gillibrand will be a great progressive senator (4.00 / 1)
and a very tough candidate to beat given her campaigning and fund raising skills.  All Steve Israel is doing with this quixotic challenge is open up his House seat to a possible Republican takeover.

So... (0.00 / 0)
Is there anything inherently wrong with letting someone run in a primary? Gillibrand wasn't elected to her current position, so what's wrong with making her prove her mettle in a primary?

None at all (4.00 / 1)
What I'm more interested in is the blog perspective on who to support.  Quite frankly, I think we'd be better off with Gillibrand than Steven Israel.

[ Parent ]
There's nothing inherently wrong with primarying incumbents... (0.00 / 0)
...but I generally prefer to avoid it. They can be divisive and often devote resources from other races. Furthermore, they give the Republicans a chance to go on TV and say that the Democrats are becoming intolerant of certain viewpoints ("The Democrats are being taken over by the far left. They only voted out Candidate X because Candidate X believes (insert moderate position here)").

Occasionally, the incumbent's transgressions become so severe that I feel we have no choice but to have a primary and accept all of those backlashes (See Lieberman, Joe).

But Gillibrand is fairly progressive, even moreso now, and Israel doesn't appear to be more liberal than she is, so a primary here seems to me like it will divide the party (especially along regional lines) and waste resources that could go to other causes.  


[ Parent ]
When there's a one party system... (0.00 / 0)
In most races (not necessarily this race), the winner is determined at the primary, not the general election.  In those cases, it is imperative that incumbents be challenged in the primary; otherwise, we have the tyranny of the party machine.

[ Parent ]
If there's a good reason to primary, fire away. (4.00 / 1)
In this case, I'm in agreement with the perspective that says this is a waste of time and money. How many millions in campaign donations are going to be burned on a primary between two solid Dems, that could go into securing the Governor's race, and funding runs against our remaining Republican congressmen?  

[ Parent ]
Is a Reason Really Needed? (0.00 / 0)
The need for a "reason" is only from our perspectives as observers. If someone wants to be a senator, then that person has a right to seek the position.

A real opportunity to become a senator doesn't come up very often. It's even harder for people from large states like NY. Schumer has his seat for as long as he wants it. The other seat is as "open" as it's going to get. So if anyone wants to be a senator from NY, this is the best shot she or he will get. I don't think any other explanation is really necessary, or needed.

This whole episode only highlights for me the need to have a special election shortly after a vacancy happens rather than an appointment that drags the process out for another year and a half. There seems very little reason to me for not letting the voters decide the matter in the first place, aside from the cost of the special election itself (which is a cost I think we should be willing to bear to preserve the right of the people to choose their representatives instead of allowing one person to give an appointee a presumptive advantage).


[ Parent ]
Yes, I think a good reason IS needed. (0.00 / 0)
Party loyalty and the need to acomplish real governance has to be part of the equation. If nothing trumps personal ambition, than what's stopping anybody who feels like it from dragging out a primary fight, or taking it into the mud?  

[ Parent ]
As Long As The Candidate Thinks He/She Could Do A Better Job.... (0.00 / 0)
I think as long as the candidate realistically thinks he/she is the best person for the job, that person can run and let the voters decide. (I'm sure one can point to many state representatives who deserve a primary instead of getting a free ride just because they're incumbents.)

It's not that nothing trumps personal ambition. Of course it's best for the party to try to keep a primary contest from being destructive. But I don't think that's a substantial danger in this case, and that any of the serious candidates under consideration emerging from a democratic primary contest would win the seat.

And again, all of this could have been made a lot easier if we had let the voters decide earlier on in the process.


[ Parent ]
The thing is I don't see a compelling reason (4.00 / 2)
right now that he can come up with to try to say he'd be a better Senator. He would have to find some reason to say he'd be better than Gillibrand.

See, this is different than in places like Pennsylvania or Colorado, where Specter and Bennet have become thorns in the side of labor reform and healthcare. It's easy to run a primary challenge against them because someone like Sestak (PA) and Romanoff (CO) could argue "I'd be a better Senator BECAUSE I support President Obama's labor reforms."

Gillibrand has supported President Obama on every issue so far...on top of that, she went out and gave a clear concise explanation as to why she supports the public option on healthcare. How is Steve Israel going to argue he'd be a better progressive Senator when the one we got hasn't done anything non-progressive?

He can't even dig into the past because he, like Gillibrand, was a Blue Dog and came to power in 2001 as a conservative Democrat.


[ Parent ]
I think... (0.00 / 0)
...you hit the nail on the head with that one.

[ Parent ]
We Shall See (0.00 / 0)
"How is Steve Israel going to argue he'd be a better progressive Senator when the one we got hasn't done anything non-progressive?"

Well, that's what we're going to have to wait for in the campaign. He obviously thinks he can do a better job, regardless of what we think. It will be up to the voters to decide. So I really don't see much wrong with him making the attempt, especially since I don't see it putting the Senate seat at risk.

"He can't even dig into the past because he, like Gillibrand, was a Blue Dog and came to power in 2001 as a conservative Democrat."

I'm not sure he was ever all that conservative. He has always been interested in finding common ground where possible, whether it be with Republicans or conservative Democrats, and I think that was more the consideration in joining the Blue Dogs for a while than any ideological imperatives.


[ Parent ]
It's not hard to find out. (0.00 / 0)
"I'm not sure he was ever all that conservative."

Once again, I find myself trumpeting OnTheIssues.org.

http://www.ontheissues.org/NY/...

Short version for those who don't want to dig through it is that Israel's record, with the exception of the IWR vote and supporting the Bush prescription drug plan, is pretty good.  


[ Parent ]
From the perspective of democracy, No. (4.00 / 1)
But in New York we have 7 weeks between the Primary and the General, which means that parties without a primary have a massive advantage - they get to define their candidate before their opponent can.

So from the perspective of the Democrats, yes. A primary basically gives the Republicans 5-6 free points in a close race (it does the opposite in a blowout, but we can't count on that).


[ Parent ]
Thank you so very much, Nelson Rockefeller (4.00 / 1)
Before Governor Rockefeller resigned to devote full-time to his commission (and prepare for a presidential run in 1976), he changed the primary date from June to September in order to give his successor, Malcolm Wilson, a longer incumbency before he ran for a full term.  It didn't work; the 1974 post-Watergate Democratic landslide swept Hugh Carey into office.  But we have been stuck with a September primary ever since.

Perhaps it's time to consider resetting the primary back to June; that would certainly allow for more primary challenges.


[ Parent ]
Thanks- great idea (4.00 / 1)
Appreciate that bit of history that I did not remember.  A June primary would also give college students a better chance to plug into campaigns over the summer.

[ Parent ]
yes, please (0.00 / 0)
move it to June!

[ Parent ]
My initial thoughts about Gillibrand (4.00 / 1)
were very negative, but with her short tenure in the senate, she has defibitley begun to change my views of her. If she continues to be a progressive voice in the senate, there is absolutley no reason for a primary; especially from the likes of a Steve Israel.

That's my feeling on the matter as well (4.00 / 1)
And I think Steve Israel has less of a demographic reason to swing to the right compared to Gillibrand in the House.  That's why I get the feeling that her "move" to the left is more in line with her actual views.

[ Parent ]
What about the others? (0.00 / 0)
We know Rep. Carolyn Maloney is exploring a run for the Senate seat, as is (apparently) Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, and Rep. Carolyn McCarthy.

Maloney is on a run right now, as the chief sponsor of the "Credit Card Bill of Rights."  She is probably better known than Israel (though not as well known as Gillibrand at this point).  And she has a book on the store shelves.  Should she choose to run, she will be a formidable candidate.


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