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Final Tally in NY-20: Murphy by 726

by: robinia

Tue May 12, 2009 at 04:31:09 AM EDT


According to Capitol Confidential, the BOE will certify the final tally in the NY-20 race today: 80,833 to 80,107, Murphy winning by 726 votes.  Less than 1%.

One of the things that I found most interesting was how the absentee votes did not trend toward Tedisco, who started the short campaign with far more name recognition.  While the Tedisco campaign made a big deal of absentee ballots from in-state second home owners, most absentee voters were probably in Florida or Iraq during the campaign.

In terms of the military vote, I found this fascinating article: How Soldiers Really Vote, which sets us straight about the

long-held conventional wisdom that the U.S. military overwhelmingly backs the GOP
.  Turns out that pollsters like the Military Times have a tendency to only ask the brass for opinions when they take polls.  The officer corps trend to the GOP, but not so much the enlisted men:

only 32 percent of the Army's enlisted soldiers consider themselves conservative, while 23 percent identify as liberal and the remaining 45 percent are self-described moderates. These numbers closely mirror the ideological predilections of the civilian population. . . .

The political differences between officers and enlisted personnel can be partly explained by a demographic divide. Whereas officers are predominantly white, have at least a bachelor's degree, and draw incomes that place them in the middle or upper-middle class, the enlisted ranks have a higher proportion of minorities, make less money than officers, and typically enter service with only a high school diploma.

 

robinia :: Final Tally in NY-20: Murphy by 726
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Murphy-Tedisco (4.00 / 1)
J. Rathman of the Half Moon Democrats won the contest to guess the final margin.  He was only 16 votes off the final tally!

Thanks for the score-settling! (4.00 / 1)
I guess that "local knowledge" really helped in estimating.  Congrats, J. Rathman.

[ Parent ]
Sweet! (0.00 / 0)
Guess my optimism paid off! (I think my guess was the widest margin out of all the guesses)

[ Parent ]
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