NY-23: With McHugh Gone, Who Runs For Seat?

Griffo and Little (0.00 / 0)

don't live in the district. The GOP would be stupid to go down that route again. At least with Tedisco it was argued that even though he didn't live in the district, the major population center in his Assembly district was in it (Saratoga Springs).

For Griffo (Rome) and Little (Glens Falls), that's not the case.

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 14:56:32 PM UTC

Beat me to it. (0.00 / 0)

Rome has nothing to do with the 23rd.  That's Watertown.  Only the northern third of Oneida County lies in the 23rd.  We're talking about Boonville, which has about as much to do with Rome as Watertown does.

Besides, it would depress me no end to see Joe Griffo fall upwards yet again.  I'm just happy he's in the State Senate, where he can do far less damage than he did as Oneida County supervisor (9.75% sales taxes) or the mayor of Rome (Woodstock '99).  If he went to Congress, then I'd hear about him more, and that would piss me off.

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by: Steaming Pile @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 15:07:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Living in the district... (0.00 / 0)

Has nothing to do with it. Their Senate districts overlap with the congressional district, making them two people to turn to. I don't know how stupid the GOP would be to turn to one of the two, considering Tedisco's loss was only in the hundreds.

Plus, if a candidate says that they are moving in the district (or they move into the district prior to the election), that argument goes out the window.

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by: robert.harding @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 16:52:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Irony of Ironies... (4.00 / 1)

Betty Little, who was passed over in favor of Jim Tedisco and may well have won the 20th for the Republicans had she been their candidate, represents a district that overlaps from the 20th into the 23rd... just as the argument for Tedisco was that his overlapped from the 21st into the 20th.

This one has got to burn inside her just a little bit.  

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by: Andrew C. White @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 16:53:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mike Richter (4.00 / 1)

Hockey fans rejoice.

Darrel cannot run, we cannot afford the chaos that would cause in the Senate.

Very unlikely any other Dem could win this deep red seat.

And it's unclear when, exactly, this election would be held - confirmation is likely, but still takes time.  No reason to think this election could not be held on primary day or even in November, which would be less expensive (to taxpayers) than a standalone special.

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by: Lead Dog @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 15:15:17 PM UTC

Primary day is probably the most likely date (0.00 / 0)

I think

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 15:44:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's a Yale grad (0.00 / 0)

I like people who go back to school late in life.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 16:05:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If we could find someone similar to Scott Murphy... (0.00 / 0)

We might be good to go. It is easy to turn to the elected officials because they are the ones we know. But as Murphy proved, sometimes elected officials moving up the ladder isn't something voters want.

We don't need to find another venture capitalist, but someone who hasn't been an elected official (possibly Richter) who could bring in a lot of money and appeal to voters just might be the secret to success.

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by: robert.harding @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 17:13:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jefferson and Lewis Counties are red. (4.00 / 2)

The rest of the 23rd is blue.  It's winnable if you find somebody from Watertown with a following.  Somebody who has served in the 10th Mountain Division would have an additional edge.

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by: Steaming Pile @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 18:51:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not deep red (4.00 / 1)

It has a PVI of R+1. It's more Dem than the seat Murphy just won. And Obama won it 52-47, iirc.  

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by: PistolPetey @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 19:03:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's nowhere near deep red (0.00 / 0)

I believe the Dem has carried the presidential election the past 4 cycles, at least.  It's been trending more blue over the past number of years, and it's ripe for the pickin'

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by: Jrathman @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 17:28:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY-23 (0.00 / 0)

Unfortunately the state party has failed to cultivate a deep bench in this region.

Heck, if you're going to sacrifice a state senator, forget Aubertine: why not run Valesky?  It would be a shame to have him languish in Albany for the rest of his career.

But that's just one wacky idea of many possible ones.

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by: NYCO @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 15:32:52 PM UTC

Who gets Valesky's seat? (0.00 / 0)

Valesky was originally elected to the state Senate because Tom Dadey split with the Republicans in 2004 and ran on the Independence and Conservative lines.  Dadey got 13,000 votes, and Valesky won by just over 700 votes.

Valesky did win reelection handily with 59.2% in 2006 and 64.4% in 2008, but the question remains whether the district will choose another Democrat.

It's highly probable.

In November of 2004, Republicans outnumbered Democrats, though by fewer than 3,000 registered voters.  Independence and Conservative party members added another 10,000 people to the list.  As of two months ago, Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 7,000 registered voters, while there are nearly 3,000 Conservatives and just over 8,000 Independence party members.

In short, the district is moving blue.

So who could get Valesky's seat?

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 16:05:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mad Co (0.00 / 0)

Certainly Madison County (which is part of the 49th as well as NY-23) has a healthy enough Dem bench and organization to cover it.  This isn't 2004 any more (unless Nancy came back from the grave -- but then again she might switch parties again right?  That's her thang - to sit with the winners...)

Valesky would have to sell himself to the North Country, of course, but it's not like he's a flaming liberal or anything.  He wouldn't have any baggage up there (unlike Aubertine).

So, Malcolm Smith needs cut a deal with Nancy and send Jimmy Stewart off to Washington.  Something like that.

Okay, that's enough storytelling for one day...

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by: NYCO @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 16:17:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We have a pretty large majority in DC (4.00 / 1)

And the stakes are too high in Albany to go with a party-switcher.  Valesky is the kind of Dem we need in Albany, smart, moderate, and substantive.

There are a lot of fights we are going to have to go through in the next year (the end of this year's session, two or more DRP's, and next year's budget).  I'd rather have the reliable Valesky vote than an uncertain replacement.

The same analysis applies to Aubertine.  He's also bright, moderate, and subtantive, and yes, either of them would make a fine Congressman.

But if we want to fix Albany . . .

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by: Lead Dog @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 16:37:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

serious answer (0.00 / 0)

A more serious answer to who gets Valesky's seat:  Draft an Assemblyperson.  Simple.

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by: NYCO @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 16:22:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We had no bench in NY-20 either (4.00 / 1)

and all of a sudden had 32 potential candidates for our special of which 3 or 4 where actually good solid candidates.

It'll be very interesting to see who pops up in the 23rd.

Valesky lives in the 25th doesn't he?

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by: Andrew C. White @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 16:58:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oneida (0.00 / 0)

I think he still lives in Oneida.

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by: NYCO @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 17:03:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He does (0.00 / 0)

Valesky lives in Oneida, in Madison County, which is in the 23rd CD.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 17:31:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting (0.00 / 0)

that makes him a viable candidate then... and one for whom their is a reasonably good chance of retaining his Senate seat.  

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by: Andrew C. White @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 20:53:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

possible state legislators (4.00 / 1)

these are the state legislators whose districts overlap McHugh's in some way:

Dem, Assembly: Russell, Magee, Destito
Dem, Senate:  Valesky, Aubertine
Rep, Senate: Farley, Little, Griffo
Rep, Assy:  Barclay, Townsend, Scozzafava, Duprey, Butler, Sayward

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by: bbill @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 16:01:39 PM UTC

We need (4.00 / 2)

A tree-hugging Vietnam vet who knows how to milk a cow.

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by: NYCO @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 18:59:25 PM UTC