Aubertine (or Valesky) Should NOT Run in NY-23

Precisely (4.00 / 3)

Well said-- am pretty sure Aubertine and Valesky have this figured out, too.

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by: robinia @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 01:29:10 AM UTC

Let"s hope so (4.00 / 1)

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by: Roatti @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 02:05:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Doesn't Richter live in Connecticut? (0.00 / 0)

If we can win NY-20 with a no name venture capitalist, we can win NY-23 with a no namer with a good campaign too.

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 02:09:44 AM UTC

It was more of a snark (0.00 / 0)

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by: Roatti @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 03:42:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He graduated from Yale last May. (0.00 / 0)

So, no.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 04:18:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Or, we can hope they follow the lead of NY20 (4.00 / 6)

where all 10 Democratic County Chairs collaborated, agreed that a unified approach would be best for all concerned, interviewed a large field of candidates  (MANY who were "new" to politics), agreed on the best candidate for the district, and then worked together to elect Scott Murphy.  
The Democratic wing of the Democratic party is alive and well in the Northcounty..... I look forward to working to elect their new Congressional Representative!      

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by: janed @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 02:30:34 AM UTC

Agreed. Contrary to our natural instincts, this doesn't have to be a circular firing squad. (4.00 / 3)

Democrats working together can find the best candidate.

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by: Adama @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 02:40:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

with all due respect ROatti... (0.00 / 0)

the north country deserves the best possible congress person and if that happens to be Aubertine or Valesky then so be it. the people of the north country shouldn't have to play second fiddle to your need to have control of the state senate. Clearly you view this congressional seat as nothing more than a pawn on a chess board.  But for the people of the north country this is about having someone who really understands and cares about people like themselves -- you know like those of us struggling to make ends meet during these tough times. And not for nothing if darrel could win that state senate seat and this congressional I don't see why the dems can't win the senate seat again.    

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by: newyorker @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 02:37:43 AM UTC

The Problem (4.00 / 5)

My "fellow" newyorker, is we have to evaluate the bird in the hand (literally control of the state senate) against the possibility of winning a last-in-seniority congressional seat followed by the necessity of a long-shot victory in a special election to replace Aubertine.

And as I commented in an earlier thread - we are looking at two, if not more DRP's, next year's budget, and a TON of other legislative priorities we have to sort through, which is going to be impossible in a tied Senate.

If your reasoning is that if Aubertine can win the Senate seat, then we can win it with someone else (a point I would not concede, btw); then doesn't it follow that if Aubertine could win the Congressional, some other Dem could too?

On the off chance Drew or Darrel read TAP, remember we are going to lose at least one seat in reapportionment.  Someone among the Engel-Lowey-Hall-Hinchey-Tonko-Murphy-Arcuri-NY-23 is going to disappear.  Doesn't mean you will, but this district WILL change.  That's a lot of built-in uncertainty.

Finally, let's not overlook - in the context of the bird in the hand - what could happen if Aubertine were to LOSE the Congressional seat.  Is he not then weakened for re-election to the Senate?

I concede and respect this is HIS life and HIS career, but don't sell control of the State Senate short.  It's something a lot of people fought for, and with the margins so tight, and stakes so high, it's a lot to risk.

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by: Lead Dog @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 03:39:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lead Dog... (4.00 / 2)

Just wanted to mention that Sen. Aubertine has read TAP in the past and that Drew is very aware of TAP. There is no "off chance." They are readers.

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by: robert.harding @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 03:06:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Read more carefully (4.00 / 1)

Both Aubertine's and Valesky's districts are trending blue, but they are still red districts and while a non-incumbent Democrat could retain one of them, it's not a chance I think the Senate Majority is worth betting on.

Is there something wrong with a "chessgame?"  Are you saying we should not think strategically about politics?  

I agree that the North Country deserves the best possible congress person and the best possible Senator.  And I think neither of those people would be a Republican.  I just want to avoid that scenario.

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by: Roatti @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 03:47:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We may want to take the long view, (4.00 / 1)

but politicians often do not.

I hope state Sens. Aubertine and Valesky pass on this opportunity, but I'll understand if they don't.

Especially since it's a special election, which is a relatively free shot at moving up to Congress since they would retain their Senate seats should they lose.

 

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by: devtob @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 02:54:20 AM UTC

The fact that Aubertine (4.00 / 2)

turned down that Paterson appointment gives me hope

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by: Roatti @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 03:48:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fascinating analysis, but... (0.00 / 0)

I disagree.  I don't know much about the north country, which is why my earlier post simply asked for ideas.  But when talking about statewide races, we're all on much more level ground.

If Cuomo clears the field for Paterson, and supports him, then the only way Paterson loses is if he gets pulled over on a DUI.  We'll have President Obama campaigning here if that's what it takes (he has a recent record of involvement in New York politics).  Not that we'll need it.

Even better, we'll probably pick up one or two Senate seats that we wouldn't have otherwise, because the Republicans are likely to spend a fortune in a losing attempt to win the Governor's race with ... who?  Peter King?  Christopher Lee???  How about Jim Tedisco?  Maybe Tom Golisano will move back to New York.  Hey -- what about George Pataki?

Get real!

Democrats will keep the Governor's mansion, pick up Senate seats, and sail into 2011 on a new high note.

Remember, you heard it here first.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 03:20:33 AM UTC

I just don't see (4.00 / 2)

how Paterson wins reelection...I live in one of the most Democratic parts of the state and I don't know anyone who likes him or is willing to vote for him next year.

Giuliani on the other hand has a lot of supporters here...but only if Paterson runs.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 03:40:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope you're right (0.00 / 0)

but I don't see it with Paterson as the standard-bearer.  If the race was today 9u11iani would beat Paterson, and he's probably gonna run.  

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by: Roatti @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 03:50:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

June O'Neill (4.00 / 3)

has anyone considered her?  

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 04:58:14 AM UTC

THAT is a cool idea (0.00 / 0)

You have considered her.... and, you know, now I am thinking about it, too.  Interesting.

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by: robinia @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 12:01:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I actually just contacted her (4.00 / 2)

about the possibility of a special... didn't think to ask if she was interested in running.  She'd be a helluva candidate.

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by: Jrathman @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 17:34:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think she'll be attending an event we're having within the next couple weeks... (4.00 / 2)

Assuming she does, I'll ask her.

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by: Adama @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 18:34:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unfortunately, June O'Neill won't be attending our event. (0.00 / 0)

Just got word that she's got other obligations that won't allow her to make it out.  

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by: Adama @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 18:18:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Aubertine Should Run (0.00 / 0)

Aubertine would be the best candidate for that seat and do the best job representing the people of that district.  That should be the only consideration.  I find it quite disturbing that people on this website are primarily concerned with controlling all the levers of power rather than ensuring that quality people are afforded the opportunity to run and advance their public service careers.

When you are solely focused on maintaining power, then you are truly lost!

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by: Cincinatus @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 13:00:31 PM UTC

Umm, I take exception to that, actually (4.00 / 2)

My position is that Aubertine has just signed on to head the Senate Ag Committee, the Senate Energy Committee, the Legislative Commission on Rural Resources, and the Upstate Caucus of the NYS Senate.  That's a lot of responsibility, and he has begun, in just a few short months, to lay the groundwork for doing an outstanding job for the people of his district and the people of this state.  To drop all that and grab at a higher office that is perceived to be more powerful (and, btw, have to study up on a completely different set of issues, as states and federal government work on different statutes and issues by definition), would not serve the people of his district very well.  It would look like, well, self-promotion rather than public service.  Indeed, "when you are solely focused on maintaining [personal] power, then you are truly lost."  Nobody accomplishes anything in government alone.  People take on different roles, and strategy is important.  I seriously doubt that you know all possible candidates personally, and know them all to be inferior to Aubertine.... let's not jump to conclusions about who might come forward.

I'm very glad that the people of the North Country chose Aubertine to represent them; I'm also glad that he is a valued member of our team-- that is why I worked on his campaign.

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by: robinia @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 14:45:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So let's say Aubertine takes NY-23 and a Republican takes his Senate seat (0.00 / 0)

then 9u11iani wins the Governorship, making his Lt. Gov case the vote to give the senate to the GOP.  Then they will probably redistrict Aubertine out as he would be the most junior house member.  You have to think about the long-term implications.  Politics is about winning.  You can be as ideologically pure as you like, but if you're in the minority than you can do nothing.  That's just a fact.  

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by: Roatti @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 14:59:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry to hijack the thread ... (0.00 / 0)

but Andy Cuomo announced he won't challenge Patterson in a primary?  When was this?  And if it's true, WTF is he thinking?  Is he worried about how that would look, considering he already challenged McCall back in the day?  

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by: Ryan @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 13:26:51 PM UTC

I heard a rumor (0.00 / 0)

a few months ago that Cuomo may have a bank problem...something scandalous having to do with Citigroup or AIG.

I don't know how true it is, but the source...someone within the Democratic Party...says he didn't expect Cuomo to run.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 14:29:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Source? (0.00 / 0)

I did a quick check after reading this:

Furthermore, with Andrew Cuomo's announcement that he will not challenge Paterson

And did not come up with anything newer than a NYpoliticker quote from Jan. 23 saying that "right now" his only plan was to run for AG....

Honestly, seeing the Governmental Consolidation bill being presented by Cuomo with Paterson by his side kind of made me wonder about the opposite option (Paterson deciding not to run and endorsing Cuomo).

But, Roatti, how's about a source on all that?

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by: robinia @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 14:54:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Source (0.00 / 0)

http://www.nydailynews.com/new...

Maybe it's not as hard and fast as I may have implied, but it kinda looks that way.  And yes, I would assume he's concerned about how it would look after challenging McCall.  But I don't think that's apt because in the latest poll he was beating Paterson even among African-American voters.

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by: Roatti @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 15:14:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He didn't say he wouldn't run for Gov under ANY circumstances (4.00 / 1)

Cuomo said he would not primary Paterson. But a lot of folks think the money people and the electeds (esp. the Congresscritters who are understandably obsessed with holding on to the Senate for redistricting) will force Paterson to bow out and not run. He's showing no signs of doing that now, but I think the fundraising numbers he reports for this quarter and next will probably tell the tale.

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by: Historical Pessimist @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 21:57:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah (0.00 / 0)

That's kinda the way I am seeing it.  David Paterson is an honorable and brilliant guy, whose original ambitions did not actually seem to include being Governor.  He's done some deeply unpopular things, things that arguably needed to be done.  Would he "take one for the team"?  Well, you could say that in some ways, he already has.... we'll see.

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by: robinia @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 12:14:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think Paterson will show signs of dropping out until he does. (0.00 / 0)

Even if everyone on the inside is making that assumption, actually saying it publicly would cut out any remaining leverage he has in the legislature. Besides, there's always the vague chance that something drastic could happen to improve the governor's numbers, or destroy Cuomo's. Not that I think that likely, of course. Personally I've always liked Paterson, but I'm resigned to the fact that he's just taken too many hits.  

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by: Adama @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 15:20:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY-23 -- Valesky, Aubertine and who should run (4.00 / 2)

I would like to point out that NY is about to lose two congressional seats.  The NY 23rd and possibly the NY 26th will get wiped out after the next Census and the usual Gerrymandering.  

We will need Valesky and Aubertine to remain in the Senate so that the next set of districts are drawn in a manner that maximizes Democratic seats.  Given the above, I would be very worried if either one of these candidates decided to run for what may only be a two term seat.

It is my understanding that in addition to Aubertine and Valesky that the two former Democratic candidates in the NY-23rd, Bob Johnson and Mike Oot are considering runs.  However, this is a time and a chance for those of us within the NY-23rd to seek out a compelling candidate with a fresh face.  

The resume that I'd like to see would look something like this: a farmer who is also a professional that could easily fit into the Congress -- in other words a lawyer and someone that has a strong background in economic development/community organizing.  That person exist in the NY-23rd -- Eve Ann Shwartz led the successful anti-NYRI battle.  Let's send Eve Ann to the Congress and put the nail in the coffin of NYRI and let her lead the charge for a rational energy policy in this country.  

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by: ElPocho @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 13:31:33 PM UTC

Here's a novel idea (0.00 / 1)

Let the best candidates run, even if it is Valesky or Aubertine, and let the people decide in an election.

This is supposed to be a representative democracy after all.

All of this maneuvering for the sake of maximizing the number of Democrats in the NY congressional delegation or for the sake of maintaining control of the Senate is simply Karl Rove politics.

Is that what this website is supposed to be about, concocting machiaveliain/Karl Rove political schemes for the sake of maintiaing power?

Just put out good candidates who espouse your ideals and run good campaigns.

Trying to keep Aubertine or Valesky from running is a disservice to them and the people of this state.  

Good public servants should be rewarded with the opportunity to run for higher office, not punished because the party may suffer if they are entrusted by the people they serve with the opportunity to move forward.

Anything else is simply politics at its worst!

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by: Cincinatus @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 13:49:39 PM UTC

Do not ever compare me or anyone on this site to Karl Rove (4.00 / 4)

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by: Roatti @ Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 15:00:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DONT LET AUBERTINE GO! (4.00 / 1)

Thank you for saying this.  You are totally right. He is way too valuable to his district and the state of New York exactly where he is doing exactly what he's doing.

Thru-You

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by: dereau @ Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 20:46:28 PM UTC