| With the 23rd congressional district seat vacant, we have already been discussing possible contenders for the race to fill the post previously held by Rep. John McHugh, who is leaving to serve as President Barack Obama's Secretary of the Army.
CQPolitics has more on the possible contenders for both parties.
But other Democrats pointed to state Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine, Syracuse attorney Daniel J. French, 2008 nominee Michael P. Oot, state party Chairwoman June O'Neill and John Rhodes, who considered a 2008 run, as possible contenders.
"I'm interested," French, a former aide to the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, D-N.Y., said in a telephone interview.
Though he lives outside the district, he was raised in it, earned a bachelor's degree at the State University of New York in Oswego and worked as a U.S. attorney there.
Aubertine, of Watertown, won a 2008 special election for a Senate district based an hour or so from Ottawa, Canada, that covers all of two counties in McHugh's district and part of a third.
But even an Aubertine victory could be a net loss for national Democrats. New York is set to lose at least one seat in the reapportionment of congressional districts after next year's census, and his influence in the state Senate may be more valuable to the party than an extra vote in the U.S. House that could disappear after the 2012 election.
For that reason, several Democrats said they thought it was unlikely that Aubertine would run.
"It's too early to comment right now," said Aubertine's spokesman, Drew Mangione. "The senator is committed to his work in the New York state Senate."
A slew of Republican names also surfaced Tuesday: Assembly members Will Barclay, who lost to Aubertine for the Senate seat, Janet L. Duprey and Dede Scozzafava; Terry Gach, vice president of institutional advancement at the Trudeau Institute; Michael F. Joyce, the head of Hargrave Custom Yachts; former state Sen. Jim Wright; and Franklin County District Attorney Derek Champagne.
On the Democratic side, a lot of attention has been paid to Aubertine. If we had a 33 to 29 majority in the New York State Senate, it would be an easier decision. But with a 32 to 30 majority, the decision becomes a much more difficult one. Losing Aubertine could mean losing his seat, leading to a split in the Senate and a legislative nightmare.
June O'Neill could be an intriguing choice. She hails from St. Lawrence County and is very familiar with the North Country. Having her run would involve little risk. She doesn't hold a seat in the state Legislature, so we don't have to worry about another special election. Her candidacy would certainly bring the state party together and a huge effort would be made to elect her (not that such an effort wouldn't be put forth for any other candidate, but when it's the state party chair, you might see an outpouring of support from Democrats all over the state).
On the Republican side, none of those names are surprising. Most of them are currently serving as elected officials and a few of them are businessmen. It isn't a secret that the Republicans have a larger bench (they have more elected officials in the region) but they don't have anyone that sticks out as a candidate that is sure to win it.
The enrollment figures for the district aren't too bad. The Republicans do have an enrollment edge over Democrats, but with the minor party lines and blanks, that edge can be erased.
Here is the enrollment breakdown throughout the district (as of April 1):
23rd Congressional District Enrollment
DEMOCRATS: 120,887
REPUBLICANS: 167,272
INDEPENDENTS: 19,619
CONSERVATIVES: 5,561
WORKING FAMILIES: 1,482
GREEN: 911
LIBERTARIAN: 77
SOCIALISTS: 3
BLANKS: 76,194
TOTAL: 392,006
By comparison, NY-20 had a greater disparity between Democrats and Republicans, yet we still managed to win. If we can mobilize our base and get our voters out and find some supporters among the minor parties and blanks, we can win this. The Republicans will try to lower expectations, but on paper, they should win this race. However, if we do what we did in NY-20, we can win this. Having a solid candidate will only makes thing better for us and improve our chances in a special election. |
