| It will be awhile - possibly over a month - before John McHugh is confirmed as the new Secretary of the Army, a post that many contend he is qualified for and is deserving of.
But with an open seat and a special election coming up, speculation is growing about who are possible candidates for the race and there have been a number of reports telling us who is out.
One person who can't avoid the speculation is Sen. Darrel Aubertine. Aubertine has been mentioned from the very beginning as a possible Democratic candidate for this seat. He hasn't ruled out a run, but such a run (if he were to win) would put the New York State Senate majority in jeopardy.
But if the Democrats want to win this seat, Aubertine wouldn't be a bad pick. He has proven that he can win in the North Country and a portion of the district (about one-third of the registered voters, give or take) overlaps with his state senate district. So it would be tough for him not to run, but as we learned with Scott Murphy, if the candidate is smart and willing to work hard, we have a chance either way.
On the Republican side, their pool is growing. The National Journal lists 12 Republicans who are still in the running. That list includes Assemblywoman DeDe Scozzafava, who has drawn the ire of conservatives due to her support of marriage equality. They are already saying that if she is the nominee, she will have a tough time getting the Conservative Party line, which a Republican candidate rarely goes without in New York State.
Other candidates include a businessman (Ex-Deutsche Bank Managing Director Matt Doheny) who could self-finance a race, something that might interest the Republicans. Sen. Joe Griffo is still considering a run. His senate district overlaps with the congressional district and considering his age, would not be a bad choice to replace McHugh. McHugh's chief of staff Robert Taub has also been mentioned since the very beginning as a possible heir to the seat.
There are no Democrats out of the race, although I have heard rumblings that state Chairwoman June O'Neill would not run. There are a few Republicans out, according to the National Journal. Former Sen. Jim Wright is out. We already knew Sen. Betty Little was out. And the 2006 nominee from NY-24, Ray Meier, reconsidered and said he was not interested in running.
At this point, it is clear who the favorite on the Democrats' side is. On the Republican side, it's not too clear. It seems like Scozzafava's name has been mentioned a lot and that could mean something, but I have heard Griffo's name mentioned just as much, along with Taub.
I could see both sides going for members of the business community, which would make this race wide open. If this race is between elected officials, I think we would have a better idea of where the race stands. But with businesspeople involved, we will have no idea how well (or how poorly) they will perform. It would be an interesting race from that aspect. |
