| You've got some serious political trendlines going against you right now. You know it, I know it, the whole state knows it.
Can you retain the majority in 2010? Maybe. 2012? 2014? Who knows? But if you look at the first order extrapolation, you are toast sooner rather than later.
Of course, all that can change. And how long you maintain control depends on both macro things (trend of the country, Obama's popularity, the national Republican positions) but also on your own actions.
Let's review some of what you're facing:
- Strong push-- with campaign contributions-- for equal marriage laws in New York state
- When you are in the minority, your gerrymandered districts that provide you even this many seats will fall apart in redistricting
- When you are clearly in the minority, your ability to solicit campaign funds will disappear
So let me make some suggestions:
- Pass equal marriage laws. The trends on this are clear; you can get out front of it and reduce the contributions to Democrats by putting the issue off the table.
- Pass non-partisan redistricting-- the Iowa model or something like it. You are correct; it hurts you in the short term-- but I suspect it helps you in the senate in the long term and almost certainly both in the assembly and the House.
- Pass CMCE. Once you're clearly out of the majority-- again, your current status is likely temporary; maybe, very temporary-- your campaign funds will dry up and you will need these kinds of support to continue being comnpetitive.
Yes, these laws are against "traditional Republican positions". No, I don't expect you to pass the truly progressive legislation that I had hoped for from the Democratic senate. Their lack of progress on that is part of why I'm having a hard time crying too loud about your coup.
Glance down below. I'll predict the first comment (maybe whatever comments are there) absolutely trashes this post-- says that I'm collaborating with the devil (that's you, by the way); that I'm naive because you will only do bad (I'm not actually going to disagree with this); and that I'm foolish if I think you'll actually take this advice (I don't, by the way, I offer it only because I think it's better for the state, even if I honestly believe it will also help you).
Finally-- a piece of advice. Watch your back. You got this far thanks to Golisano. I think it makes more sense for him to be collaborating with you than it did for him to work with Democrats last year.
That, by the way, is a tarred by association comment on both your camps (Republicans and Golisano).
But if you think that you can trust him, I think you are sorely mistaken.
I spoke with a local candidate for State Senate whom he supported in the 2008 election last summer and expressed my concern about his being in bed with Golisano. The candidate shrugged and said that he thought Golisano was truly interested in reform. I wonder what he thinks right now.
If one thing is clear, it is that Golisano is only interested in his own best interests. He's focused on his tax bill, and his fortune, and his own well being. He'll throw you under a bus the moment it helps him.
Look, I really believe that implementing these suggestions will help you. I also think they are best for the state.
I'm not stupid. I suspect you'll go about your way and go back to the total dysfunction that you worked under up until January.
Maybe in the end, if you've helped the Democratic caucus purge itself of its most, ahem, troubling member; and maybe if this leads to a larger and quicker good Democratic majority in the Senate; then maybe this becomes a good thing eventually. |
