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Why marriage equality will pass

by: Dan Jacoby

Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 08:34:33 AM EDT

Marriage equality will pass this year. That's a prognostication, but I have two reasons for making it.

First, Pedro Espada supports it. I hate to think that someone with his less than stellar record has any power at all, but there it is. In addition, Tom Duane is willing to do whatever it takes to get it passed -- even conspire with such as Espada.

Second, Republicans want it to pass. They are tasting the possibility of being in control of the Senate again, and don't want to lose that control in a year and a half. If marriage equality is still an issue, there will be enormous amounts of money and people turning out for Democrats (real Democrats) next year. By passing marriage equality, Republicans will dam that flood.

Dan Jacoby :: Why marriage equality will pass

Tags: Marriage Equality, Tom Duane, Pedro Espada, (All Tags)

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Why marriage equality will pass | 15 comments

I think it's an opportunity (4.00 / 2)

for NY Republicans to separate themselves from the ever-less popular national party, and start rebuilding. Whether they'll take that chance is another question.

A lot of stars still need to come into alignment, but I agree odds are good.

by: simonstl @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 13:03:53 PM UTC

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For showing they're a different kind of Republican... (4.00 / 3)

... Allying themselves with an Al Capone wannabe and a guy who slashed his girlfriend strikes me as being probably the sort of they'd want to avoid.

by: Adama @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 16:08:03 PM UTC

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motions (4.00 / 1)

Further, the new rules allow for Messages of Consideration to be brought to the floor. Now, if a majority of legislators want to vote on it, either for or against, it'll be brought up for a vote. Malcolm Smith won't be keep it down anymore.

by: bbill @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 13:29:20 PM UTC

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A shame (4.00 / 3)

It'a a shame that Senate Republicans and not Senate Democrats will get the credit for bringing Marriage Equality to a vote and possible passage.
But the Dems have not been acting very democratic lately. It is clearly time for the state party to recruit some real Democrats to replace those fools running the place now.

Tax the Church.

by: furiousdee @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 15:05:48 PM UTC

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I came to the exact conclusion as Dan Jacoby in this thread (4.00 / 2)

after reading the Times article with Duane and Espada quoted. Ironically, the NYS Republicans may well receive credit for the passage and that will tamp down opposition in 2010 although they still have an ever growing club of octogenarians holding on to some otherwise Democratic seats.

by: politics64 @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 17:06:42 PM UTC

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I wouldn't count on Duane joining Golisano's coalition. (4.00 / 2)

The east side of his district who inherited Sen Duane after the GOP redistricted Liz Kruger out already sees him as a one-issue pony. We are watching this very closely. It will not be looked upon favorably if he goes over to the dark side and I'm pretty sure he knows it.

by: JohnS @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 18:31:15 PM UTC

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No one's suggesting that. (4.00 / 1)

He doesn't need to join the coalition to bring forth the bipartisan bloc of votes he recently told us he said he has, regardless of what caucus is finally bringing the bill to a floor vote.

The most optimum turn of events, I think, is for Golisano's coalition to last just long enough for the ME bill to be brought to a vote, it passing, and then Golisano's Coalition of the Billing crumbling, and the Dems taking back the senate. That way, it will be hard for voters to punish Dems in rural areas for voting for a bill that the Republicans will get an equal share of the credit for towards passage of.

by: homoaffectional @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 21:48:58 PM UTC

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I think (4.00 / 2)

that if this happens, it proves that Michael Steele has NO control over anything.

When Karl Rove, Tom Reynolds, Dennis Hastert and Matthew Dowd were pulling the strings, one phone call from any of them would have put this to bed in 15 seconds.

by: Amherst Guy @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 18:50:42 PM UTC

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Also, (0.00 / 0)

If the Republicans pass this here, that means public opinion is swinging so fast that we're gonna have federal legislation for it by 2012 - and it won't cost the Dems dearly.

by: Amherst Guy @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 18:53:44 PM UTC

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Don't know about that... (0.00 / 0)

... at least, if you mean federal ME legislation that actually passes. They haven't even been able to pass a federal hate crimes bill, which there is tons more support for than ME, after a full 15 years of waiting for it to pass, let alone a federal non-discrimination bill that includes transgendered citizens. And how about abolishing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"? It's funny how marriage seems to overshadow so many GLBT rights goals that should have come forth a long time ago.

by: homoaffectional @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 21:51:29 PM UTC

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They could pass hate crimes today. (4.00 / 1)

They're afraid. It's stupid.

by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Jun 12, 2009 at 02:20:40 AM UTC

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it being their fear (4.00 / 1)

so there's no confusion.

by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Jun 12, 2009 at 02:21:14 AM UTC

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DADT I'm sure (4.00 / 2)

is held up because of stiff opposition from the military leaders President Obama needs behind him to get out of Iraq and figure out Afghanistan. I also don't think it was one of his top priorities right away...but even then, a repeal should come out of Congress. I don't favor the President's executive order thing because I think Congress will then consider the problem solved and not pass the necessary legislation, and the executive order will be at risk of being overturned when another President comes into power.

by: nrafter530 @ Fri Jun 12, 2009 at 04:54:03 AM UTC

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I agree entirely, though some people are still having a hernia. (4.00 / 1)

There's a LOT of things that need to be done--DADT is on the menu. But they had 8 years to mess things up, and that doesn't count the stuff like DADT and DOMA that were messed up already. Obama's had just under 5 months.

by: Adama @ Fri Jun 12, 2009 at 05:02:46 AM UTC

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