| Everyone has a reaction to the Quinnipiac poll unveiled yesterday that shows Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand trailing Rep. Carolyn Maloney 27 percent to 23 percent, with four percent of respondents saying they backed Jonathan Tasini and 44 percent of those surveyed saying that they are undecided, a huge total which will no doubt help the eventual winner in such a primary.
But while that might be the most important statistic from the poll, there are actually others that give you an idea that while Maloney might lead in a primary, that lead might not be what it seems.
There are a few other numbers from the poll that are worth highlighting:
- Gillibrand would beat Republican Peter King in a hypothetical matchup 44 percent to 28 percent with 26 percent undecided. Maloney also beats King, but by a 42 percent to 26 percent margin and 30 percent undecided. That four percent difference in the undecided column shows that while Gillibrand still has some work to do, Maloney has a longer way to go, especially if she is going to be a strong general election candidate. It's one thing to win the primary, as we have seen in the past, but it's another to be a weak candidate for a general election bid. I'm not saying that Maloney is the best candidate for the primary (I believe Gillibrand is) but if she is going to tout herself as the liberal in the race, she might want to change her tone and tout herself as more of a statewide candidate, which at the present time, she isn't.
- Maloney's only strength is New York City. Against King, Maloney beats King in New York City with 54 percent of the vote compared to King's 18 percent. In the suburbs, Maloney gets 41 percent against King's 39 percent, which isn't a huge margin. Maloney's faring in upstate New York isn't any better. In all of upstate New York, Maloney gets 32 percent of the vote against King, who gets 25 percent of the vote in a race against Maloney. Maloney's numbers against King in urban upstate areas (39 percent to 18 percent) are better than her numbers in other, presumably more rural areas of upstate (31 percent to 26 percent).
- While Maloney is strong in New York City and shaky elsewhere, Gillibrand is strong in most categories. While she needs to improve in the suburbs (King is beating her there in the poll by 17 percentage points), Gillibrand has strong numbers elsewhere. In New York City, she beats King 49 percent to 20 percent. In upstate New York, she beats him 46 percent to 24 percent. The polls show that both Gillibrand and Maloney have some work to do in the suburbs, but that Maloney also has a lot of work to do in convincing upstate voters that she, not Gillibrand, is the right nominee for the Democratic Party.
- Gillibrand's job approval ratings are rising. The poll finds that 37 percent of those surveyed approve of the job Gillibrand is doing as senator. Only 15 percent disapprove and 48 percent don't know or have no opinion on her performance. Those numbers are up from 33 percent in April and 28 percent in February. There are also more voters forming an opinion of Gillibrand. While only 48 percent are undecided on her approval rating, that is down from 54 percent in April and 62 percent in February. And it can be concluded from the results that as time goes on and Gillibrand has a chance to prove herself, more of those who don't know or have no opinion decide that they approve of her job performance.
Gillibrand has received plenty of endorsements from party leaders, unions and community groups, as well as many other progressive leaders, elected officials and organizations. There have been those who have argued that she has done this to avoid a primary. That isn't the case. She is receiving this support because people genuinely support her. The poll numbers have shown the evolution of New Yorkers and their support for Gillibrand. She is gaining more and more support at time goes on.
Maloney might lead in this poll that was released yesterday. But leading a poll in June 2009 is a far cry from winning the Democratic primary in September 2010. There is a long way to go and time is something that Gillibrand has shown benefits her greatly. The more time she has, the more she can show New Yorkers just how effective she has been and will continue to be.
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