|
A new Marist poll on Senator Gillibrand's approval numbers suggests that she's gaining ground in statewide recognition, though head to head election polling is still a dead heat.
The poll groups respondents into those who have a generally positive opinion of the Senator's job performance, those who have a generally negative opinion, and those who have no opinion or won't say. The latter number declined by 10%, while both the positive and negative views went up.
| May | Now |
| Good or excellent | 19% | 24% |
| Below average | 10% | 13% |
| Don't know | 43% | 33% |
With 33% of the public still unwilling to commit to an opinion, it's still early, but at the current rate within a few months the Senator may make significant gains in statewide name recognition.
Marist also polled the Senate primaries: a statistical tie between Gillibrand and Maloney, and Pataki beating Peter King by about 15 points.
Polling was done on the general election assuming Gillibrand as the Democratic nominee, bearing out the idea that a moderate and substantially less insane Republican like Pataki would be a stronger general election opponent than King.
A word about election polling a year to a year and a half out: nobody cares but us. Not that that influences the science, but it does influence the public attitude. Ultimately, polls conducted right now are going to be just a measure of name recognition, and thus fairly meaningless once the campaign heats up and people are paying attention.
If polls 18 months out were accurate, Hillary Clinton would have been challenging Rudy Giuliani in the 2008 presidential race. |
