NY Voters Angry at Senate, Vow to Remember in 2010

Remember who did it. (0.00 / 0)

That's what I'm hoping for, that voters remember who it was who made this mess, and vote accordingly.

---

by: Steaming Pile @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 20:27:12 PM UTC

Looking forward to the conference, Jim! (0.00 / 0)

Once that information is further posted, I'm planning on blogging here and trying to get a better exchange of ideas going among the community.

---

by: BingChester @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 20:39:20 PM UTC

I'll believe that the voters will remember, when I see it (0.00 / 0)

come 2010.  Voters are notoriously fickle, and there's always a sense of hate the institution but love the personal representative - or at least keep him around, regardless.

But if there were ever a year for strong outside challenges, this would be it.

---

by: wmlawman @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 20:54:20 PM UTC

More about the conference (4.00 / 2)

jmcbride and I have been in communication about this idea for a while.  He suggested that we in the NYC area have a local conference as well, an idea I heartily agree with.

I believe we should have local and/or regional conferences around the state during the summer, then send people to Albany in late September to compare ideas, plans, candidates, etc.

Many local areas are dealing with local elections right now; once the primary season is over there will be a window of opportunity to look forward to next year's state elections.  A lot of people who don't have the time right now to attend a statewide conference can get to more local conferences.  In addition, local conferences will be far more knowledgeable regarding individual races and potential candidates.

This is where YOU can come in now (yes, I mean YOU!).  Organize your local conference, get people involved, find candidates, discuss specific reform ideas -- and local issues -- and prepare for the statewide meeting in September.

Big thanks to jmcbride for taking this idea and running with it.

Dan

---

by: Dan Jacoby @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 00:10:06 AM UTC

Yes, but what are they going to remember? (4.00 / 1)

This is what I'm worried about: we were in control of the State Senate when this whole crazy Charlie Foxtrot went down. Our guys were the ones who decried Espada and Monserrate, then took them back and made Espada the f--king Majority Leader.

Yes, this was carried out by desperate Republicans, and is the unholy spawn of 40+ years of patronage, corruption, and graft. But are the voters going to know, or care? Typically the party in power gets the blame.

What worries me is how far this has probably set us back in terms of selling people on the idea of government reform. How many people in upstate areas voted for a Democrat, or were on the fence, only to see their tentative interest get smashed in the face by this disaster?  

---

by: Adama D. Brown @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 04:24:33 AM UTC

I've generally noticed (0.00 / 0)

a lot of Democratic malaise as of late...with the State Senate being a major reason, but also nationally. Who thinks Obama is too liberal, who thinks he's too conservative, who is upset because they thought Obama and the Democrats could govern with a strong bipartisan consensus and now they're just partisan bickering all over again.

In the end, looking back at the 2008 campaign, and to some extend 2006, there appeared to be great delusions of gradeur and as reality sets in, a lot of those delusional people disengage from politics yet again.

And we may see that next year in lower turnout

---

by: nrafter530 @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 19:15:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And don't forget the people who think Obama's not being partisan enough... (0.00 / 0)

...because he's not having the Republicans dragged out in chains.

It's my hope that next year will be bolstered by increasing economic recovery, as well as the spectacle of the Republicans playing to their base in classic horrible fashion. But there's no doubt in my mind that next year's state legislative elections are an uphill climb.  

---

by: Adama D. Brown @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 19:28:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well the economy probably isn't going to recover much (0.00 / 0)

Unemployment will still by high...my guess is that we get killed in next years elections...probably not losing Congress, but with a dimished majority. I don't know if we hold the State Senate, but if we do, it's only going to be because of how few Democratic seats are in jeopardy. At best I think we old our small majority...I'm already prepping for the reality of Governor Giuliani.

In the end the Democratic Party is just too big and with too many contridictory interests; socially conservative labor activists vs. rich social liberals who oppose health care reform or EFCA, pro-Israel liberals vs. anti-Israel liberals...over on MyDD, there are posting attacking Obama for being too liberal while on the same thread posters attacking Obama for being too conservative and I hear this everyday.

The party may very well fall under it's own weight. We won because we conviced the country we could be everything to everyone...now reality has set in and as it turns out, we can't be.  

---

by: nrafter530 @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 19:49:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Damn, and people were going to say I'm pessimistic. (0.00 / 0)

First off, I don't think that we're going to do too badly next year in Congress. It is, after all, likely to be a referendum on Obama, who's doing his damndest to make sure that that turns out well. That said, I think that the state senate is probably a lost cause unless they turn things around within the next 12 months.  

---

by: Adama D. Brown @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 22:42:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Demographics will out (0.00 / 0)

First of all, we may lose the 48th district before next year, if Aubertine wins the House seat about to be vacated by Rep. McHugh.  Unless we can find someone with the cross-aisle pull that Aubertine showed, that seat may be lost, leaving us with a 31-31 tie (assuming the "gang of four" doesn't pull another switch).

Of course, without 32 votes nothing gets passed.

There are also a couple of Democratic senators currently under indictment.  If we lose Aubertine's seat, we keep the majority in the Senate, since there aren't enough votes to force a change.  If, however, one of the indicted senators is convicted and must resign, the Republicans take over.  The 32-vote rule still applies to legislation, but if it doesn't apply to procedural votes (like who's the majority leader), the Republicans probably regain control even though both districts are heavily Democratic.

Looking foward to the 2010 general election:  There are a couple of districts on Long Island that may go red-to-blue, as well as the one Republican-held district in Queens.  Frankly, I don't see three Democratic-held districts switching next year, no matter how bad things are.  In addiiton, since the Democratic committees are almost certain to have a much better money ratio when compared with Republican committees next year, it stands to reason that Dems end up with at least 33 seats, and possibly 34-36.

The trick, of course, is to put reform Democrats in as many seats as possible; otherwise, we just get more of the same nonsense we've had for decades.

---

by: Dan Jacoby @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 01:02:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is Aubertine running? (0.00 / 0)

I'm sorta in favor of him running because another seat in Congress will be more damaging to the Republican Party nationally and protect the party from the "things are unraveling for the Democrats" meme...pretty much Dems in the State Senate aren't really filling me with confidence at the moment to convince me that Aubertine shouldn't jump into a race he'll almost certainly win.

I hearsay the GOP nominated Scozzafava...that means the Conservatives are going to go third party increasing the liklihood of a Democratic pickup.  

---

by: nrafter530 @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 01:38:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I just heard a very convincing argument about Guiliani.... (0.00 / 0)

... from a very savvy Democratic official: if it looks as if the chaos is not abating in the Senate, and the "ship of NYS" is listing about without clear direction, it plays directly into Guiliani's self-promotion as the Manager of Disasters.  The more things seem out of control, the more the voters will favor Rudy, so, please, Senators, GET IT TOGETHER.  Hire yourselves a real manager, and do what s/he says at least until the gubernatorial race.

---

by: robinia @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 01:17:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just have them put Phillip in charge. (0.00 / 0)

---

by: Adama D. Brown @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 02:05:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jim - Please cross post this at DKos (0.00 / 0)

I want to help - can you supply your email address (or any other address) so I can sign up?  I believe fixing the Senate is more important than who wins the NY Senate race.)

Thanks for sharing the results of the poll.

Please cross post at DKos

HylasBrook

---

by: HylasBrook @ Fri Jul 24, 2009 at 19:12:08 PM UTC