| The main reason Tobias does not like this primary is that he estimates it will cost $25 million, and the primary to replace Maloney (in a wealthy district in the most expensive media market in the country) will cost another $15 million (that's the new one for me).
Tobias knows more than most how difficult it is to raise that kind of money, and that money spent in New York and NY-14 on unnecessary primaries will inevitably mean that other Democrats will have fewer resources in 2010.
As he explains:
All this - $40 million - NOT to turn a red seat blue, but simply to decide which of two progressive Democratic women gets to be senator.
That same money could provide $2 million each to 20 tough congressional races where Democrats have a shot at picking up seats - check out Krystal Ball's remarkable race in conservative Fredericksburg, Virginia, for example (and yes, that is her given name)- or where we risk losing seats we just picked up in 2008. Two million dollars goes a long way in a tight congressional race. Should we spend it 20 times over just to replace Senator Gillibrand with a different (terrific!) woman who would have 18 months less Senate seniority? And to lose the congresswoman's clout in the House? And to install a junior senator from New York who would have 19 fewer years ahead of her (actuarially speaking, being 19 years older) to build seniority in service to New York?
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Perhaps in a better economy, $40 million wouldn't be so hard to come by. These days, however, it's been my experience in asking Democrats for money that not a lot of us feel flush.
Tobias also does not like the mid-September primary, with good reason:
If Gillibrand and Maloney square off, each would inevitably be saying tough things about the other until just a few weeks before the general election - very possibly opening the door for the Republican to walk right in, turning a precious blue Senate seat red.
So the net result could all too plausibly be: (a) the loss of the seat; (b) one fewer woman in the Senate (there are too few as it is); (c) the loss of a terrific, senior congresswoman.
Tobias thinks Maloney will reconsider, and do "what she has always done: put her country and her principles ahead of ego, stubbornness, or personal ambition."
I disagree, given what she's been up to the past month -- hiring staff like Joe Trippi, commissioning a push poll by Doug Schoen, and trashing Gillibrand at every opportunity.
But I hope I'm wrong about this, and he's right. |
