New York Senate Registration Trends (w/Maps)

List of State Senators for cross-reference (4.00 / 3)

http://en.wikipedia....

http://www.senate.st...

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by: ortcutt @ Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 21:05:27 PM UTC

Caveat (0.00 / 0)

I left the Conservative, Independence, and WFP, and Blank registrants out of the picture.  Since Conservative and Independence registrants (who tend to vote for the Republican) greatly outnumber WFP registrants (who tend to vote for the Democrat), the maps with the gap info does underestimate effective Republican voter registration advantages.  I didn't think there was any reasonable way to include them though.  I don't think the Conservative or Independence registrations change enough to affect the gap change figures greatly though.

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by: ortcutt @ Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 21:44:10 PM UTC

Wow, look at Long Island (4.00 / 1)

Until Craig Johnson, all senators were GOP, but it ahs been trending strongly blue everywhere in terms of party registration. 

Let's tip a hat to the Dem 2 county execs, Suozzi and Levy!

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by: Roatti @ Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 21:47:43 PM UTC

Wow, look at Long Island (0.00 / 0)

Until Craig Johnson, all senators were GOP, but it ahs been trending strongly blue everywhere in terms of party registration. 

Let's tip a hat to the Dem 2 county execs, Suozzi and Levy!

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by: Roatti @ Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 21:47:44 PM UTC

Incredibly cool (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for doing this!

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by: simonstl @ Mon Apr 30, 2007 at 22:26:22 PM UTC

State Committee-- Support Candidates Everywhere! (4.00 / 2)

Our County Dem Committee in Tompkins County (which is bright blue if you look at registration by county, but does not show up on these maps, as we are divided into 3 separate senate districts...) just passed a resolution asking the State Committee to please work to run and support candidates in every senatorial district.  These maps would make a really good argument for passing a similar resolution elsewhere.  If ever the "Dean approach" was appropriate, this situation is it.  Statewide, Dems need to support that with cash, to counter the "incumbent advantage."

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by: robinia @ Tue May 01, 2007 at 01:56:45 AM UTC

The DSCC is going to do what it always does.... (4.00 / 2)

...raise money from a few rich donors...and give it to a few races...lose most of them and hope someone actually wins one or two in spite of their losing approach.

It's a sad state of affairs when they are hoping they get Reps to flip instead of winning elections and supporting good candidates.


We've got some work ahead of us.

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by: NYBri @ Tue May 01, 2007 at 03:18:25 AM UTC

That stinks-- but you would know (4.00 / 1)

So, there is a root problem, don't you think?  How do we change that?

I'm very frustrated with the gender-segregation that I believe protects male State Committee members, in the guise of providing equal opportunity.  Do you think that if we pushed to overturn that, we might make some changes in party approach?  I would consider a challenge to my County Committee's State Committeeman, but, am not allowed to because of gender restrictions.  This effectively ensures that, despite a history of male domination of party business, there is no chance that women will ever have even the 51% of the representation that would reflect their % of the population... The old guard is WAY in the WAY.

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by: robinia @ Tue May 01, 2007 at 13:08:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The DSCC is irrelevant (4.00 / 3)

The effort to take the Senate is being run from the Governor's office.  Craig J's campaign is exhibit #1.

Smith is an empty suit.  Everyone knows that - his only mandate is to serve the Queens, Brooklyn and Bronx machines.  If/When the Dems take the Senate, I expect him to be gently pushed aside for someone more rapacious, like Klein.

But nevermind the current minority leadership [sic].  Shouldn't we be encouraging progressive candidates to run, so that they will at least form a voting block that can counterweight the residual Republicans and the ascendant Outerborough Machines?

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by: Todd_NYC @ Tue May 01, 2007 at 14:01:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Smith is an empty suit but I doubt he'll be pushed aside (0.00 / 0)

I sincerely doubt that the State party will push aside a minority leader for a white Senator, despite the fact that Smith may be an empty suit.  I find it hard to believe that they will upset a key segment of their party just to install a more active leader.  Instead, I believe that the Governor will be pleased to have someone that he can "work with" like Smith.

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by: RSLJD03 @ Tue May 01, 2007 at 23:23:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

the power behind the throne (0.00 / 0)

you're probably right - so, instead we'll get a bush-cheney dynamic between Smith and Klein.  I wonder how Klein looks in a Darth Vader suit?

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by: Todd_NYC @ Wed May 02, 2007 at 11:47:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Smith is Empty -- More Maps (0.00 / 0)

Smith is an empty suit made by the Queens machine.  Not sure if he will be unseated should the Dems take over.  Queens is no place for reformers and is one of the most locked down counties in NYS.  At least Brooklyn has fights over the partonage mill that is the court system (the only reason county organizations exist in New York City). 

As for the maps. The next version needs to give a break down of likley voters by party registration.  That is the baseline for determining the swing/shift that is likely possible.  With a little work, we could break down Election Districts with strong cross over votes.

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by: milesblack @ Wed May 02, 2007 at 00:38:27 AM UTC

27th SD (0.00 / 0)

I was a little confused about the change in registration map for NYC, which shows a heavy surge in favor of the GOP in the 27th. I wasnt sure if that was a mistake -- whether a smaller GOP trend, or a mismarked Dem trend. According to the PDF we enjoy an almost 4:1 advantage, so I'm not sure if any GOP trend short of mass defections could make a difference, but I was just curious.

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by: hellenica @ Wed May 02, 2007 at 17:44:52 PM UTC

27th SD (0.00 / 0)

It's mostly a matter of Democrats losing registration to non-partisan, but there is some increase in Republican registration, from 15.22% to 16.61%.  So, that is something to note.

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by: ortcutt @ Thu May 03, 2007 at 18:01:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]