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NY-23: Hoffman Internal Poll Has Scozzafava In Lead

by: robert.harding

Wed Sep 09, 2009 at 19:37:15 PM EDT


A poll conducted by McLaughlin and Associates for Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman attempts to give the perception that Hoffman is a viable third party candidate.

The results of the poll showed that Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee, leads with 26 percent. The Democratic candidate, Bill Owens, netted 17 percent while Hoffman came in at 16 percent. When "lean" votes are factored in, Scozzafava gets 30 percent, Owens 20 percent and Hoffman 19 percent.

The poll also has a large group of undecideds at 31 percent. It covered 300 likely general election voters and had a margin of error of 5.7 percent.

This poll makes for a good NY-23 post, but nothing more. Based on some other information in the poll, you can tell what the goal was: To portray Hoffman as the conservative option to the "liberals" Owens and Scozzafava.

Here is an example:

All things being equal, based on the following descriptions for whom are you more likely to vote for U.S. Congress? If you will decide your vote on other issues just say so. A Democratic candidate who is pro-abortion and is supported by Nancy Pelosi, who supports gay marriage. A liberal Republican who is pro abortion and pro gay marriage, OR, A Conservative Republican who is running on the Conservative Party line, who is pro-life and pro traditional marriage.

The results of that question had 48 percent saying they supported the "Conservative Republican" choice (which is Hoffman without the question saying as much).

The intent of this poll was to do what Hoffman has been trying to do since being given the opportunity to run on the Conservative Party line. He is running as the conservative alternative to Scozzafava (and Owens, if that's possible). He has labeled his two opponents as "liberals", which is an interesting approach. He labels Owens as a supporter of gay marriage even though he does not support gay marriage (he supports civil unions, but does not support full marriage equality due to religious reasons) and tries to separate himself from Scozzafava on the same social issues.

Obviously, this poll is nothing more than a way for Hoffman to get more support. It's not something I would take too seriously.  

robert.harding :: NY-23: Hoffman Internal Poll Has Scozzafava In Lead
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Bill Owens? (0.00 / 0)
The important point in this poll is that Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate is only one point ahead of Hoffman.

Democrats might have had a chance to win this seat with Oort, who challenged McHugh in 2008.  He got creamed, but he has name recognition and people who would be willing to volunteer for his campaign again.

Meanwhile, Owens is to the right of Scozzafava on most issues important to progressives.   His web site is lame, and once again I volunteered to help a candidate at his web site and have gotten no response.

I know the Republicans are going to hail Dede's win as a judgement on President Obama, but I personally cannot get enthusiastic about such a poor and quixotic candidate as Owen.

I don't know what the county chairs were thinking when they nominated Owens.  It's their district and what I think doesn't matter.  But with such a lackluster candidate, many progressives who would have volunteered for the campaign are not going to bother.  Especially if Owens is too disorganized to accept our offer of help.

My hope (and it's a long shot)is that Dede, who has in the past has been endorsed by the Working Families Party may become an independent when she gets to Congress.  WIth her progressive views, I don't see how she can last in the Southern male dominant Republican caucus.


HylasBrook


Don't take that much stock in the poll... (0.00 / 0)
This poll was done for Hoffman's benefit, not for Owens or Scozzafava. It makes a nice blog post about NY-23 (and a news story), but it means very little at this stage.

Oot wasn't even one of the finalists and I think he knew it. I believe he bowed out on his own. He wasn't interested. He didn't run the greatest of campaigns in 2008 (yes, he was running against McHugh) and I think the Democrats wanted to go in another direction.

It should be noted that Owens was backed by the DCCC. Then all 11 county chairs backed him. The reason? Probably money. I'm sure he showed that fundraising prowess that is needed in such a short race and that made him their top guy.

They also know more about Owens than we do. I know very little about him. I know where he stands on social issues and I know where he stood on health care. But aside from that, I can't say a whole lot for him.


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