| It's the question on everyone's lips, and most people probably have a different answer depending on their point of view. The popular view is that Paterson has been running the Governor's office as "amateur hour," bungling many issues. While there's some small sliver of truth to this--which we'll get to later--I think that on the whole this is greatly exaggerated.
Up front disclosure: I like Governor Paterson. I always have. Honestly I don't think that his tenure has been nearly as disastrous as most people think it has. And I completely agree with the President's decision to try and curb Paterson's attempts to run next year, because if he does it will be a disaster.
Governor Paterson's rapid slide into the annals of New York political history can be chalked up to three things. Two are his fault, one is not. The budget shortfall problem was going to need to be dealt with no matter who sat in the Governor's mansion, and there are a limited number of ways to deal with that. New York has to reduce spending and raise revenue, neither of which is a popular thing to do, and even less so when you've got a screaming mob of legislators trying to pin you as either kicking disabled veterans out of nursing homes, or taxing poor people into starvation.
However, where things really went awry is not primarily with policy--it was with communicating about policy. There has been an overall lack of a clear and consistent message coming out of the Governor's office. Paterson can be a really good communicator when he wants to be--I had the privilege of getting to see him in person during his stop at SUNY Geneseo this past spring, and he firmly and clearly presented his case for why the budget needed to be the way it was.
I think it's fair to say that if every single one of our 19 million New Yorkers got to see the Governor explain the current governmental situation in person, we wouldn't be having this discussion. However, they don't have that luxury, and that brings us to the crux of the matter: the use (and misuse) of mass media. The Governor's office has not well handled the press. From the broad range of anonymous (and contradictory) leaks during and after the Senate appointment process, to the invocation of race as a reason for falling poll numbers, to the lack of a statewide address explaining the budget crisis, the message coming out of Albany has mostly been in bits and pieces, not a coherent whole.
Then there's the third and final reason for the Governor's political demise. This is a simple misjudgment on his part: opposition to the "millionaire's tax" as a partial relief to the budget crisis. While no one likes raising taxes, the media moguls and Wall Street barons affected by this can afford it far better than most New Yorkers could deal with cuts to vital state services and jobs.
Lastly, as to the President's involvement, I can only say this. Like any good political observers, President Obama and his advisers can look at the history of Cuomo vs. McCall in 2002, as well as Paterson's statements invoking race, and recognize a serious disaster coming from a long way away--one that not only could hand the Governor's mansion to a Republican, but could damage turnout across New York State and even become a national story leading up to the crucial 2010 mid-term elections. |
