| The problem for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand might not be a Democratic primary. The problem might be beating Republicans Rudy Giuliani and George Pataki.
The Marist poll on the U.S. Senate race shows that Gillibrand trails both Republicans, although there are some points to make about the polling numbers against her hypothetical Republican opponents.
Against Giuliani, Gillibrand loses 51 percent to 40 percent. Those numbers aren't too surprising, given Giuliani's name recognition and considering that is pretty much what these polls are all about when they involve someone like Gillibrand who doesn't have the statewide name recognition that Giuliani or Pataki has.
When pitted against Pataki, Gillibrand does better. She still trails 45 percent to 41 percent, but that's not a bad margin against the man who seems to be the more likely of the two opponents. If Giuliani runs for anything, it is looking like he will run for governor. But I think the Republicans are waiting to see what Andrew Cuomo does.
There are some things in these polls that need to be pointed out.
- Gillibrand beats Giuliani in New York City by a larger margin than Pataki. That is a very interesting number. Gillibrand wins 58 percent to 38 percent in New York City over Giuliani and 53 percent to 34 percent over Pataki. I know that it's only one percent point, but since 58 percent of voters are willing to pick her over Giuliani, that's a much bigger achievement than the margin of victory.
- Gillibrand's weakness in the general election matchups is what some might consider her strength: Upstate. She loses upstate New York to Giuliani 59 percent to 33 percent and loses to Pataki 48 percent to 39 percent. Isn't it fascinating that Giuliani loses the city he used to be mayor of by 20 percentage points and yet, wins what you might consider "conservative upstate" by 26 points.
- Democrats supporting the Republican in these polls are also interesting. Of the Democrats polled, 29 percent support Giuliani and 26 percent support Pataki. By comparison, only 13 percent of Republicans back Gillibrand in her matchup with Giuliani and 17 percent support her in a race with Pataki. Could those votes be from Democrats who just don't like Gillibrand or aren't informed about Gillibrand? It is very possible. It's also possible that they are voting for the person they know the most about. In this case, it wouldn't be a shock to have that person (or persons) be Giuliani and Pataki.
- Gillibrand has to build her support among women. Women back Giuliani over Gillibrand 47 percent to 41 percent and back Gillibrand over Pataki 43 percent to 40 percent. You would think that support would be a little higher, especially in a race that would pit her against a man. But those numbers are sitting in the low 40s.
We are about 13 months away from the general election. I'm not too worried about this race. I do worry that she has hit a lull after months of increasing poll numbers. What is clear is that if Pataki is her opponent, she will probably beat him. The numbers don't say it now, but she could beat him today. Giuliani is a different story. Of course, it helps to have a national profile. Some people vote not based on qualifications but who they know when asked in these polls. So when they hear Giuliani as opposed to Gillibrand, it doesn't surprise me that they pick Giuliani.
Gillibrand is still working hard. She has clearly made gains in New York City, where hardly anyone likes Giuliani or Pataki. So if she can build up her base and appeal to those in upstate New York, she will be a tough candidate to beat in 2010. |
