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Governor David Paterson has made it clear that he wants to run again in 2010. His poll numbers aren't very good. He loses to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in a hypothetical primary and possible Republican challenger Rudy Giuliani holds a double-digit lead.
The only candidate Paterson beats? Republican Rick Lazio, who has declared his candidacy for governor.
Steve over at Daily Kos has this analysis on the New York gubernatorial race:
NY-Gov: Is Romney Tipping Rudy's Hand?
There are a couple of different ways to read into this nugget of news out of the Empire State: apparently, 2008 GOP presidential contender (and, to many, the 2012 favorite) Mitt Romney will be heading to New York in three weeks to host a fundraiser for 2010 gubernatorial candidate Rick Lazio. This could be seen as a sign that Giuliani is going to eventually demur from seeking the governorship, since Romney would be unlikely to expend a lot of political capital on a candidate who polls show would have little chance of winning the GOP nomination against Giuliani. This could also be a sign that there were some seriously hard feelings about the 2008 presidential race, and Romney feels like giving Rudy a little clip at the knees. It is worth noting that Lazio is a Romney friend, as well as an endorser of the former Massachusetts Governor's presidential campaign last year.
While I don't think Romney will have such an impact (if Giuliani decides not to run, it will be on his own, not because he isn't aligned with Romney or because Lazio is Romney's horse in this race), I do think if Giuliani were to take a pass and no other serious Republican challenger steps up to run, we could see Paterson give it a go in 2010.
For that to happen, Paterson will need some help.
- Giuliani would need to announce he isn't running OR Giuliani could run for U.S. Senate against Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. That would take away the GOP's best candidate for the seat.
- Cuomo will have to pass on the Democratic primary. This is the least likely of the two. Cuomo's poll numbers show that he would win a primary. He is a very popular attorney general and would get a lot of support in a primary and general election. He is the biggest threat to Paterson.
- Lazio isn't the strongest of candidates, yet he is only within a few percentage points of Paterson. While it's too close for comfort, it's a race Paterson can win.
I don't think it's likely, but we could end up with a general election of Paterson versus Lazio. What a campaign that would be. Having a matchup like that would be like the Yankees and Red Sox losing their respective division series matchups and getting an ALCS featuring the Twins and Angels. Sure, it's still a championship, but it's not the best championship possible. |
