NY-23: Owens 'Surges' Ahead of Scozzafava, 'Civil War' Looming For GOP

You beat me to it... (4.00 / 1)

Posted this diary right after yours got posted...(no, Phillip and I are NOT in constant contact about diaries.... :))

Owens up in Latest Siena Poll

Yes, I know it's a poll and who can believe in polls...but, as a rule, they help frame the narrative.

And the narrative is that Bill Owens seems to have the MO according to the results of the latest Siena Poll of the Congressional race in CD23 released this morning.

The skinny:

Owens (D) - 33% (28%)
Scozzafava (R) - 29% (35%)
Hoffman (C) - 16% (16%)

The second number was from the past poll released on October 1.

Money quote from Siena Pollster, Steven Greenberg:

Scozzafava's seven-point lead has evaporated over the last two weeks, as voters have gotten to know all the candidates better.

If you believe these numbers, this is still a toss up, and, personally, I think some of Hoffman's support will flip to Scozzafava in the booth...but it's the trend that is important.

This race, along with the NJ and VA Governor's race will dominate the media blah blah about Obama and the 2010 election.

It would certainly be nice to see yet another GOP NY Congressional seat make the flip...but holding on to it in 2010 without a Conservative to siphon off votes will be tough.

We've got some work ahead of us.

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by: NYBri @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 15:02:59 PM UTC

My Concern Exactly (0.00 / 0)

"holding on to it in 2010 without a Conservative to siphon off votes will be tough."

I was thinking the same thing. Sure, it's nice to win the seat. But will incumbency be enough to compensate for what will likely be a 2-way race in 2010? How much funding should be put into a race that may be such a difficult hold, especially in a mid-term election?

I don't know much about the makeup of the district and which way it's trending, but I don't know if it's worth pretending that it's some kind of referendum on Obama (which, of course, it isn't).

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by: dsimon @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 23:19:00 PM UTC

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We might have thought the same thing about NY-20. (0.00 / 0)

But if one thing seems universal about red districts, it's harder getting a Democrat in in the first place than it is to keep them there.

And remember we haven't seen how the votes are going to shake out in the end. It could turn out to be less three way, and for that matter Scozzafava could be drawing away as many Owens voters as Hoffman is from her.

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by: Adama D. Brown @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 04:10:14 AM UTC

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Yes, But.... (0.00 / 0)

I know the numbers may change. And I know one can't just add the Republican and Conservative candidates' numbers and conclude that would be the result in a 2-way race against a Democrat.

But my thought experiment is what would happen if Scozzafava or Hoffman were not running. If Scozzafava were not running, I'd think Owens might get a fair chunk of votes. But I don't see a similar swing if Hoffman were not running; I'd think most of those voters would go with the Republican candidate or stay home.

It's my understanding that the district is not deep red, and Owens is still introducing himself to his potential constituents, so the prospects of holding the seat may turn out to be reasonable. But my relatively uneducated guess is that this will be a more difficult task than NY-20. (And NY-20 may be tough if the economy isn't clearly on the upswing by the end of the summer.)

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by: dsimon @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 17:31:33 PM UTC

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Today is a bad day for New York Republicans. (4.00 / 1)

The problem for Scozzafava is that she can't win straddling the middle. If she leans over to the left, she gets no support from the national Republican party and loses the base. If she goes right, she loses the Democrats who currently support her. And let's not kid ourselves, there's got to be quite a few of them if Owens is only pulling 33%.  

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by: Adama D. Brown @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 19:27:59 PM UTC

this is a key moment for NYS Republicans (0.00 / 0)

not so much whether they win the race, but whether they can separate from movement conservatism and still do well.

If they're really trapped in movement conservatism, they're going to have a hard time in this state.

(I suspect that if that's the case we'll also see something new emerge from the folks who want to be Republicans but not that kind of Republican.  Dunno.)

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by: simonstl @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 19:37:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]