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Last poll gives narrow edge to Hoffman, but who knows? (NY-23)

by: brooklynite

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 10:53:18 AM EST


Siena College has released its final poll of the NY-23 race, reflecting shifts since Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out and endorsed Democrat Bill Owens, rather than join the right-wing hordes embracing Conservative Doug Hoffman.

Since Friday's poll, Hoffman is up 6 points to 41%, Owens is static at 36%, and Scozzafav (who will remain on the ballot) has plummeted to 6%.  However, that leaves 18% (up from 9% on Friday) in the Undecided column.  

My inclination is to say most of the conservative Scozzafava supporters had already abandoned her during her spectacular collapse over the past month, and the remaining Undecideds are the moderates who stuck with her to the end, and are likely to either go with Owens or stay home.  But whoever wins a three-year stint in this job (the District is likely to disappear after the 2010 Census), the Republican Party is going to have either an emboldened or embittered rump movement to contend with going into next year's primaries.

Detailed poll summary:
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedf...

brooklynite :: Last poll gives narrow edge to Hoffman, but who knows? (NY-23)
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It won't disappear. (0.00 / 0)
It'll just be called something else.  Maybe the incumbent will have to run against Mike Arcuri, but there will most likely still be a big-ass district encompassing the northern part of the state where cows outnumber people.

Careful, man. (0.00 / 0)
Cows outnumber people in my county too. :D

[ Parent ]
My prediction (0.00 / 0)
For what it's worth...

Owens: 46
Hoffman: 44
Scozzafava: 10


Hoffman SHOULD win by 25 (0.00 / 0)
This, in theory, isn't close. I know they'll spin even a 1 point Hoffman win as a huge victory for the teabaggers, but in reality, this is a conservative district with a massive Republican enrollment edge.

This will be a good barometer of what support the Dems have lost over the last year - if Hoffman wins by less than 5 (or loses) it's small enough to not have to worry, if Hoffman wins by 5-20 its some, and it's time to hunker down, but it's by no means a death knell, and if its 24 or more, we might have to fire all of out PR guys (starting with Pelosi and Reid).

24 or so Points - 62-38 - is what Hoffman should win by in this district. Keep that in mind tomorrow night.

Unconfident Prediction:
Hoffman 51
Owens 41
Scosazoavoazaoazaazzza - 8


oh and I disagree with the disappearing thing (4.00 / 1)
This district I think barely changes at all. Maybe its numbered 22 next time and picks up another county, but other than that, no, this is staying how it is.

I'm from NY-21st (0.00 / 0)
and I have been getting robo calls from Republicans all day long.  Anyone else experiencing this?

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