| It is very clear now that Democratic candidate Bill Owens has won the 23rd congressional district race. The Press Republican reports via Twitter that Owens' opponent, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, has conceded.
 So why did Owens win? There were more than a few reasons.
MODERATE VIEWS. It has been repeated over and over again that NY-23 is a moderate, not conservative, district. In fact, if you look at John McHugh, he was known for being more of a moderate Republican. Upstate New York districts tend to get a "conservative" label because usually these districts are red districts with Republican enrollment advantages. But NY-23 isn't your average red district. The 23rd went for President Barack Obama in 2008 and that was with McHugh winning big over the Democratic challenger, Michael Oot. What was clear then is clear now: This district is a moderate district, not a conservative one. And while it wasn't popular at the time, the Democrats picking a moderate independent to run as their candidate was brilliant and a successful strategy from the start.
HOFFMAN'S WEAK CANDIDACY. There will no doubt be conservatives who see Hoffman as their kind of candidate, but he really did run a weak campaign. For someone looking to represent a congressional district, he didn't do anything to appeal to the congressional district. It was the Watertown Daily Times who pointed out that Hoffman was more of a national conservative candidate than a local one. This was true throughout. He was very uninformed on key local issues. He seemed to enjoy going on Glenn Beck (he is Hoffman's mentor, after all) and being talked about on Rush Limbaugh instead of focusing on the people who would really matter: The constituency in NY-23.
SCOZZAFAVA'S EXIT. It was said after Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out on Saturday that her votes would probably go to Hoffman. It seems like, at least at first glance, that such an assumption was wrong. Scozzafava is more in line with Owens than Hoffman. I know it might seem unlikely for a Republican to support a Democratic candidate, but people also vote their views. If there is a candidate who is a moderate independent like they are, they will support that person. Bill Owens presented that option.
As an aside, Scozzafava as a candidate is a strong woman who would have served the district well. Admittedly, she wasn't a bad option. She represents the good of the Republican Party and is someone the Republican Party should be modeled after: A moderate or traditional conservative who votes what she believes in. But she faced an uphill battle with the NRCC and conservatives within the Republican Party undermining her campaign. As a result, she wasn't able to maintain a strong campaign and had to pull out. That helped Owens. Either her supporters stayed home or voted for Owens. That's my conclusion.
ISSUES. From the beginning, Owens has been pushing one issue: Jobs. He has mentioned repeatedly his role in creating 2,000 jobs. The economy is an important issue. Owens knew that and hit on it the whole campaign. Hoffman was too busy schmoozing with Fox News. When voters see you talking about job creation, they will listen. Voters need a representative, not a television star.
Owens will serve the district well. They need someone who will fight for them and help the key parts of the district. We now hold 27 of the 29 congressional districts in New York. That is amazing. Only NY-3 (Peter King) and my district, NY-26 (Chris Lee), are in Republican hands.
It's a good night in NY-23. Congratulations to Bill Owens. |
