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SD-ALL: Skelos Puts Bullseyes On Certain Senate Democrats

by: robert.harding

Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 16:48:46 PM EST


Republican leader Dean Skelos is already plotting his course for 2010 and hoping that the so-called anti-incumbent wave that swept certain areas of New York will help his conference retake the New York State Senate.

Courtesy of Liz:

There were also Republican successes, albeit slightly less high-profile, in Monroe, Erie and Onondaga counties, Skelos noted, all of which are home to marginal Democrats who have been in the GOP crosshairs in the past.

   "If you're Bill Stachowski, Dave Valesky, Darrel Aubertine, Andrea Stewart-Cousins, Craig Johnson or Brian Foley, I think you have some cause for concern," Skelos told me yesterday.

   "We've had people approaching us and asking to run against Democratic incumbents whereas in the past we've had to go out and seek candidates to run," the senator continued. "Even some candidates who maybe fell a little short, we're going to look at all of them. Some of them ran terrific campaigns and perhaps are ready to go for the Senate."

So if we go by what Skelos is saying, his targets are clear: SD-3, SD-7, SD-35, SD-48, SD-49 and SD-58.

Without challengers, it will be tough to gauge just how vulnerable those six seats are. Keep in mind that Skelos gave us Barbara Donno in SD-7 last year, so it's not as if Skelos has a good record to work with. He was, after all, the leader when the Republicans lost the majority last year.

robert.harding :: SD-ALL: Skelos Puts Bullseyes On Certain Senate Democrats
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Thanks Dean! (4.00 / 2)
We appreciate you laying out your plan of attack for us!

But seriously, does he really think he can beat Andrea in Westchester on the basis of Andy Spano's flop?  Unless the Tea Baggers are willing to let the GOP nominate a legitimate moderate (like Nick Spano or his type?), there is no way that district goes back to the red team.


Not unexpected seats (4.00 / 1)
I think we all imagined that most of those seats would be targeted next year.  In addition, the post made mention of how Eric Ulrich has been groomed as a challenger for Joe Addabbo in SD-15.  However, as someone who worked on Addabbo's initial election, I'm not too concerned about that seat.  

The other seats are a mixed bag.  SD-3 and SD-7 will of course be challenges to hold.  The same goes for SD-49, which will always be a difficult seat to hold, even for Aubertine, unless it is redistricted after the next cycle.  It seems to me that SD-35 seems to be trending rapidly in a positive direction, and that the Republican caucus may be experiencing a frantic yet self-defeating obsession with retaking that seat.  SD-58 strikes me as a fairly solid seat, and although we experienced a scare there last year, no one will be caught as unprepared this time around.  

I don't know too much about the internal dynamics of SD-48.  Can anyone enlighten me?


I'm assuming by SD-48 you are talking about Valesky? (4.00 / 1)
He is in the 49th by the way.  I don't see him having trouble.  I interned for him in college and can tell you that he is a very solid guy and an extraordinarily dedicated and hard working public servant. He has parts 4 cities, albeit perhaps the only solidly democratic one is Syracuse. In that district though it is all about the farmers and he takes care of the farmers. In the past he has had what I thought would be solid challengers and he won both times by a good margin. At some point the statewide party will realize what a solid guy he is and run him statewide, he would be a breathe of fresh air.  

[ Parent ]
agreed (4.00 / 1)
I think Valesky is already in possession of his Senator for Life card if he wants it.

[ Parent ]
Oops (0.00 / 0)
Oh yea, had a brainfart.  Not like I didn't spend enough time following the SD-48 special election and reelection to have that memorized.


[ Parent ]
I am not super scared of losing Aubertine (4.00 / 1)
Or, for that matter, Stachowski.  But who knows.

We need to make sure we take advantage of that same sentiment.


Not worried about Stachowski? (4.00 / 1)
He nearly lost to a guy who wouldn't know a key issue if it hit him in the face. I'm not too impressed with him and think that we could do better. I also think he is viewed as someone who caved to the so-called "New York City Democrats" and lost the Senate Finance Committee chair slot because of it. I don't think that is accurate, but that's what the locals are claiming. And because of that, Stachowski is vulnerable.

I'm not worried about Aubertine either. Not too worried about Valesky either. The upstate Dems are fairly safe, but I do think that the senators on Long Island, if this year's elections are any indication, have reason to be concerned. Mix that with Skelos disdain for Johnson and Foley because they are Democrats on what he believes should be a Republican Long Island, that's where our key defenses will be.


[ Parent ]
I agree with Skelos take on the two LI seats (4.00 / 1)
In Craig Johnson's district the Democrats re-elected every single incumbent but by smaller than normal margins thanks to the Democratic base staying home.  The Republicans plan to use Lee Zeldin, Tim Bishops 2008 opponent to challenge Foley and wrap Brian in the teeth with his MTA vote. A bill to pass real property tax reform or return the STAR reimbursement would help overcome the MTA issue.

[ Parent ]
My problem with the MTA... (4.00 / 1)
Is that, like usual, the Republicans didn't propose an alternative. It's no different than the national debate over health care. We have proposed the public option, Medicare for all, cutting out preexisting conditions and improving records (just to name a few). The Republicans? Nothing. At least nothing in terms of legislation.

They can criticize Foley for MTA, but what is the alternative?

It's amazing how obsessed Skelos is about protecting his turf. He takes issue with two Democrats being elected on Long Island. The more they spend resources there, the better. Because I can't see them beating Craig Johnson and even with a serious challenger to Foley, I think Foley can overcome it.


[ Parent ]
Not worried about Aubertine? (0.00 / 0)
I know Aubertine is a great candidate and perfect fit for that district, but I don't think we can ever be really comfortable with his reelection.  That district is very Republican.  I think it's going to be a tough ride of it every election cycle.  

I agree with you on Stachowski, in that I don't like him in the least bit and would like to primary him.  But that's a Democratic district and I feel much more secure about Stachowski's, or any other Democrat's, chances of winning than I do for Aubertine in his district.  



[ Parent ]
I wrote a diary the other day about........... (4.00 / 1)
a consequence of that happening. Follow the link if you would like.

http://www.thealbanyproject.co...


SD 37 (0.00 / 0)
Suzi Oppenheimer could be vulnerable in SD 37.  In 2008 Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld ran a spirited campaign against Oppenheimer -- a 25 year lackluster incumbant.  Droves came out and voted for Obama -- and as a result Oppenheimer won easily.  Feld is fronting some group called New Yorkers for Growth -- and was in the forefront of the successful Rob Astorini campaign to oust Westchester County executive Andy Spano.  Dems in SD 37 would be wise to run an alternate in that race -- Amy Paulin or George Latimer -- two Westchester Assemblymembers -- come to mind.  

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