One-year-out polls have caused Marshall to be pessimistic about Gillibrand's election chances:
Maybe she'll turn out to be a great senator. But this one surprised everyone when it was announced. And she's far from the best positioned person to hold this seat in 2010. It wasn't clear when she was appointed that it would be such a tough climate for Dems. But that's life. If Giuliani gets in to this race, this one could end up looking like a senate (seat) Gov. Paterson all but gave away to the Republicans.
Marshall does not mention who else might have been "the best positioned person to hold this seat in 2010." The only NY Democratic pol who is a lock next year (for whatever statewide office) -- Attorney General Andrew Cuomo -- did not indicate any interest in the job.
Marshall also gives too much credit to name-recognition polls that show Giuliani leading Gillibrand.
IMHO, Giuliani is unlikely to challenge Gillibrand, in part because he knows from his presidential-campaign experience that year-out polls mean nothing.
In a real campaign, which Gillibrand will surely run, Giuliani's many political and personal negatives will be highlighted; there may well be a teabagger running on the Conservative line; most NY voters will vote for a Democrat who will support President Obama; and Giuliani will not become the first former NYC mayor to win any statewide office.
Yglesias generally argues that Obama should not have hired so many Democrats who held elective offices that Republicans might win at the next opportunity.
But here's what he says about Gillibrand:
It's not clear to me that there was any better choice than Gillibrand.
I, and many NY Democrats who are paying attention, agree.
Gillibrand has been an excellent Senator -- supporting the stimulus, a strong public option, cap and trade, DADT repeal, improved children's nutrition programs, and better federal regulation of illegal gun trafficking.
Gillibrand has also been working hard, all across the state, meeting many thousands of voters and impressing them.
And she's a diligent fund-raiser, who will raise the money necessary to win next year.
Gillibrand has suffered somewhat from a pronounced antipathy by the NYC newspapers, who no doubt preferred that Gov. David Paterson would have appointed Caroline Kennedy or someone else from NYC.
That will change next year, as every major newspaper (except the Murdoch-money-pit New York Post) comes to recognize that Gillibrand has done an excelllent job, and the other media follow along. |
