| UPDATE: Senate adjourned until tomorrow morning at 10 a.m.
All signs are pointing to the New York State Senate voting on the Marriage Equality Act (S4401) tonight. The debate and vote won't take place until late tonight, but multiple sources are telling me it is going to happen.
(You can watch the live debate here.)
And the best part? It just might pass.
The historic nature of this bill won't be lost on the Assembly either. Assemblyman Danny O'Donnell, who is the sponsor of the Assembly version of the bill, said earlier today that his chamber will pass marriage equality again which will set the stage for the Senate later tonight.
It is the Senate where the bill faces uncertainty. Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr. - a vocal opponent of marriage equality based on his religious beliefs - has resorted to prayer. He has tried to stand in the way of a vote in the past, but the fact he is now praying means that a vote is not only coming, but a real chance at passing.
So what does this bill need to pass? There are no less than 22 votes for the bill right now. Those votes are all Democrats. Sponsor of the bill Tom Duane and 19 co-sponsors: Senators Adams, Breslin, Dilan, Espada, Craig Johnson, Klein, Krueger, Montgomery, Oppenheimer, Parker, Perkins, Savino, Schneiderman, Serrano, Squadron, Stavisky, Stewart-Cousins, Hassell-Thompson and Thompson. In addition to those 20, the two leaders of the Democratic conference, John Sampson and Malcolm Smith, are supporting the bill.
That leaves 10 votes needed and a lot of uncertainty.
In May, Nate Silver whipped the votes for marriage equality. He found what we know: This is an uphill battle. There are at least two definite no votes in the Senate Democratic conference: The aforementioned Diaz and Darrel Aubertine, who is a conservative on the social issues (he is also anti-choice). Silver listed five Democrats - Aubertine, Diaz, Shirley Huntley, George Onorato and Bill Stachowski - who were on the record as opposed to marriage equality. However, because of the nature of this vote, there could be at least one of those who are opposed that will vote in the affirmative.
The Republicans have at least 20 members in their conference who will vote against the bill in addition to the two Democrats who are certain no votes. That means there are 18 members who are up in the air. Some will certainly be no votes. Others will be yes votes.
The 18 undecideds are:
DEMOCRATS
- Brian Foley. Foley has been on the fence about marriage equality and has been undecided on the issue since campaigning for the seat in 2008. But when the time comes, he could be a yes vote. It has been said that out of all the undecideds on the Democratic side, he is one of the ones that will vote yes.
- Shirley Huntley. While she is listed as a no, that was in May. This is December. Things can change and a vote for marriage equality would be helpful for her in a conference that is ready to replace her with someone better.
- George Onorato. Onorato has faced protests over his opposition or undecided status. That pressure could turn him into a yes vote.
- Hiram Monserrate. Monserrate isn't exactly beloved. But his vote would be important. He is one of the few representatives from Queens where a vote on marriage equality is possible. Other Hispanic members (including Espada) are supportive. Monserrate might be as well.
- Joseph Addabbo. He is on record as saying he believes there are other important issues to discuss prior to marriage equality. Whether that means he is against equal rights is another issue. He replaced a man who was in opposition, so voting for this bill will mean that 2008 wasn't a loss for those who fought for change and made Addabbo one of two Democrats to overtake Republican incumbents in November (Foley was the other).
- Carl Kruger. Kruger isn't the best Democrat in this conference (although Espada and Monserrate have made him look like a party loyalist over the last several months) but he knows a key vote when he sees it. He has been out in front, as finance chairman, on the issues with the governor's DRP. So if he gets what he wants with the DRP, maybe that will give him the motivation he needs to vote for marriage equality.
- David Valesky. He could be a no, but his leadership position in the Senate might change that. The upstate delegation is split on this and Valesky could give us a third vote from upstate. That would be important.
- Bill Stachowski. He is another whose weak showing in the 2008 elections would be helped by a vote for marriage equality vote. He needs to show that he will be there when it counts and this is a way for him to do that. He is previously a no against it (citing religious reasons) but has kept an open mind on the issue. We need a yes vote from him. This is important.
REPUBLICANS
- Long Island senators: Kenneth LaValle, John Flanagan, Owen Johnson, Kemp Hannon, Charles Fuschillo. Newsday found that six of the nine Long Island senators opposes marriage equality. That means some of these Republicans listed as undecided will be no votes. However, Owen Johnson is still on the fence. So while those Long Island senators (if their votes hold) make it tougher to pass the marriage equality bill, the door is still open.
- Andrew Lanza. Lanza is one of the few Republicans in New York City and might be one of the easier Republicans to bag as a yes vote. His vote, like others, is up in the air but he could be one vote in our column.
- Vincent Leibell. With Leibell getting a primary challenge from Greg Ball, will Leibell move to the right and vote against this? Or would he have voted against it anyway? It's hard to say, but he is another who could be a yes vote under normal circumstances, but might bail on this vote to save his political career.
- Betty Little. Little is leaning no, but would be one of the likely Republicans to vote yes. She is fairly moderate and just might be a surprise vote in favor of the bill.
- Jim Alesi. He is the only Republican on record as a yes vote giving us no less than 23 YES VOTES.
- Cathy Young. Being from a conservative upstate district, it won't be surprising if Young votes no. That is the likely vote, but she might pull a rabbit out of the hat.
My prediction? I say it passes one of two ways:
(1) We get 32 or 33 votes, mostly Democrats but also a few surprise Republicans (i.e. Lanza, Little, etc.). The number of undecided Democrats could also give us a higher number, especially if there are Republicans who will vote for this bill.
(2) We get 31 votes and Lieutenant Governor Richard Ravitch is called in to cast the tie-breaking vote. What a monumental situation that would be, given the controversy surrounding his appointment.
Will it pass? Possibly. Insiders are saying it is likely. We'll see what happens tonight. |
