| Cadei reports that Gillibrand has been unable to "scare off talk of a big-name 2010 challenge, either in the primary or the general election."
But such talk is cheap, and worthless, so far:
New York political observers and party activists remain deeply skeptical that any of the prominent politicians now mulling a possible Senate candidacy will ultimately run, in part because of her head start on fundraising and in consolidating Democratic support.
For the primary, Cadei notes that neither Bill Thompson nor Harold Ford Jr., who the generally anti-Gillibrand NYC media have floated as possible primary challengers, have done anything more than talk to reporters off the record about challenging Gillibrand.
And beating a hard-working incumbent Senator, even an appointed one, takes a good deal more than that.
(Manhattan Democratic Assemblyman Jonathan) Bing, an ally of Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney who at one time was considering her own primary challenge to Gillibrand, also expressed doubts that much of the state Democratic establishment would rally around a primary challenger to Gillibrand at this point, given the roster of tough statewide races that the party is already looking at.
"I think it would be very hard for them to draw financial or elected official support at this point," Bing said.
State Democratic chairman Jay Jacobs noted that Gillibrand's fund-raising head-start, and her prowess at that essential political skill, bodes ill for any potential primary challenger.
"I don't think that at the end of the day" taking Gillibrand on will be "an easy thing to do. People look at the poll numbers and right now hers are not as high as I'm sure they will be.
"There will be people who look at it and then take a look at the money you need to raise and then the fundraising limits ... and it becomes less and less attractive."
The longer they "take a look," the less likely a serious challenge becomes. Thompson and Ford are not that well-known statewide, and they would need $10 million or so to change that for the primary.
Which will be difficult to raise.
Cadei reports that while Republicans are hoping that big-name has-beens Rudy Giuliani and/or George Pataki will get in, so far they haven't.
So the GOP is evidently stuck with third-tier nobodies like Bruce Blakeman and Liz Feld.
Cadei spoke with Giuliani-lover Guy Molinari, the Staten Island GOP boss, who's hoping against hope that his friend and benefactor gets off the dime.
(Molinari) has been trying to recruit Giuliani to run, though he admits he has been met by some doubts from the former mayor and his close allies.
When asked whether he thought Giuliani would be suited for a legislative rather than executive role, Molinari said, "That's all I hear from Rudy and his close friends."
Molinari has argued, to the contrary, that "There's not that much difference from the posts. ... The fact of the matter is today there aren't too many stars in the United States Senate (and Giuliani) would be one that would rise to the top immediately."
Cadei also spoke with state Conservative Party chairman Mike Long, who helped lose NY-23 to a Democrat for the first time in over a century.
Long, whose family and friends made out big-time on Pataki patronage, lies about Gillibrand big-time to Cadei:
Clearly she is unknown, that's No. 1. No. 2, she has flipped on every given issue so I think she's weakened herself upstate where initially that was her strength.
No. 1, Gillibrand has modified her position on only two relatively minor issues -- gun control and immigration -- to better reflect and represent in the Senate her new statewide constituency.
No. 2, Gillibrand remains quite popular upstate, which generally appreciates its first Senator in memory.
No. 3, none of the potential GOP candidates will excite teabaggers who are the volunteer field workers they will need.
The upshot of this story is that Gillibrand is a lot stronger than her current poll numbers indicate, for a variety of political reasons.
She represents the state well in supporting serious health care reform, investments in 21st-century jobs, marriage equality, children's nutrition, dairy price reform, etc.
She's an assiduous fund-raiser, gets out to meet voters in small gatherings at every opportunity, and is the epitome of a hard-working Senator.
Cadei's story shows that Gillibrand's potential challengers, in both parties, are obviously aware of her inherent political strength.
And increasingly wary of wasting their time, and their friends' and family's money, on a fool's errand. |
