Republicans win two Assembly seats

At the Assembly level, (4.00 / 3)

a few dozen extra committed volunteers can make a difference.

And they did in AD 3.

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by: devtob @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 20:28:14 PM UTC

yes. (4.00 / 3)

The Dems had better work to overcome the enthusiasm gap before this year's general election.

Or else we'll lose control of the state Senate, more Assembly seats, several House seats, and possibly even a statewide race or two.  

I don't think most people realize how serious this really is. We have the majority in registered voter polls but an honest likely voter model right now would probably have us losing 15 assembly seats, 4-5 state senate seats and 4-5 congressional seats, and possibly some of the statewide offices (all numbers assume the Rs can find candidates, which at this point is really their only legitimate problem).

This can change by November, and it needs to. Obama and Cuomo (Please go away Paterson) can shift back into dreamy visionary mode. Its our best hope.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 22:08:32 PM UTC

Better than "dreamy visionary mode" for Obama (4.00 / 3)

would be to get some kind of halfway decent HCR passed and enacted.

Without that, there is no chance of energizing the base to vote and/or volunteer, and the Democrats are toast, not just in the NYC suburbs.

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by: devtob @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 22:26:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Absolutely 100% true. (4.00 / 1)

But it will not pass unless the excise tax problem is fixed via reconciliation. Until that happens, the unions will continue to oppose the Senate bill and it'll die on the vine. Where is the push from the WH? Is this what's dragging HCR down?

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by: JohnS @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 23:01:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Healthcare reform wont pass (0.00 / 0)

The votes simply are not there.  

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by: Sean @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 05:51:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I disagree, (0.00 / 0)

but I'm an optimist.

The Senate will have to use reconciliation to pass anything halfway decent.

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by: devtob @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 06:24:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't think that's true, Sean. (4.00 / 1)

The Senate easily has the votes, via reconciliation, to pass an amendment fixing the politically insane excise tax that the unions oppose (and that the Senate agreed to drop the weekend before the MA election). Then they send that back to the House for a vote. The vote in the House will be tight, but it'll pass with pressure from Pelosi and the WH. Not sure why this hasn't already happened...Obama should have already signed the thing and moved on to financial reform. Instead, the Dems make themselves look like the gang who can't shoot straight. Why? Because they're afraid editorial boards and the GOP will be upset for using reconciliation?  

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by: JohnS @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 16:21:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Senate doesn't easily have the votes (0.00 / 0)

there are at least 10 Democrats who are either opposed to reconciliation or open, but uneasy about it.

Nelson, Bayh, Lincoln, Landrieu, Lieberman, Pryor, Byrd, Feingold, McCaskill, Webb.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 16:53:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Senate doesn't easily have the votes (0.00 / 0)

there are at least 10 Democrats who are either opposed to reconciliation or open, but uneasy about it.

Nelson, Bayh, Lincoln, Landrieu, Lieberman, Pryor, Byrd, Feingold, McCaskill, Webb.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 16:53:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We're probably going to lose the state Senate next week (4.00 / 3)

Or whenever they reconvene.  Ruben Diaz is going to lead the charge, and he'll take Kruger and (probably) Espada with him.

That's fine with me (for now); the Republicans can share in the mess for a while.  After all, it was Republicans in DC who got us into much of the mess, so they should take their share of the blame.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 23:35:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They don't (4.00 / 1)

I don't think most people realize how serious this really is.

They don't, because as I'm finding, the same people who showed up at the polls for Obama two years ago couldn't give a rats ass about anything political, while the (seemingly growing) teabagger constituency is the only one talking.

I don't think there's anything we can do about it. It may have been an inevitable disaster that comes from relying on the votes of unreliable voting blocs.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 00:03:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Those "unreliable" voters might have been trained differently.... (4.00 / 4)

I think the Obama campaign did not interface effectively with the rest of the Democrats at the local level.  In my part of the scenery, the Obama field manager wasn't even a Democrat, herself, and she blabbed about Obama bringing about a new age of bipartisanship incessantly.  Put the former-mayor of the city (an "independent" because Republican's don't win here) in front of thousands at a huge rally as MC (didn't ask the Dem sitting mayor), and let him "introduce" our state-level candidates with what he thought was appropriate.... and didn't let the candidates themselves say a word!

Volunteer and mailing/donations lists were never shared-- in the past, the presidential campaign was not organized on-line by centralized field directors, so, that info was shared.

"Organizing for America" still sends me emails urging me to go to a "watch party" to see Obama's State of the Union speech, but could care less if we have a State Senate challenger or if anybody votes in upcoming village elections.

It's a bifurcated party-- and the Organizing for America crew has forgotten the most important lesson of politics: all politics is local.  The digital age changed that less than you might think.

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by: robinia @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 04:28:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OFA opened an office in Albany (4.00 / 1)

a couple months ago.

Nice reception, chatted with Paul Tonko a bit, signed up with my e-mail address, and have never heard from them.

Not for Scott Brown, not for the SOTU, not for the first anniversary of the inauguration, not even to ask for money, nothing.

I wonder what they do all day over there.

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by: devtob @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 05:24:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I get facebook messages from OFA (4.00 / 1)

fairly frequently.  Try hooking up with them through there.

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by: Jrathman @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 16:52:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I got OFA messages (4.00 / 3)

for Coakley, SOTU, even for Bill Owens.

Actually, to tell you the truth, I've heard a few people complain OFA contacts them TOO MUCH.

I don't think it's a question of whether or not they're moving the troops, I think the question is the troops don't want to be moved.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 16:55:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Huh? (4.00 / 1)

This shows really clearly that the OFA organizing effort is very different from place to place, and maybe from communication medium to communication medium. Also, a bit impersonal sometimes: they have a habit of encouraging you to go to "parties" at the homes of people you have never met, and they provide you with only the person's first name and directions to their house.  That is not a "troop moving" approach in some 'hoods.  

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by: robinia @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 22:58:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It probably is different from place to place (0.00 / 0)

that wouldn't surprise me.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Fri Feb 12, 2010 at 00:45:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

considering (4.00 / 2)

Considering how the Obama campaign pretty much lifted all their tactics from Dean for America and dressed it up in slicker trappings, is it really any surprise that they don't have any real presence on-the-ground in local politics?  Doesn't anyone remember the Iowa debacle in '04?

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by: NYCO @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 13:42:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The problem with OFA (4.00 / 2)

OFA was born out of the grass roots support for the Obama campaign (which, as you say, mimicked the grass roots meetups for Dean).  The problem is that OFA is now a top-down organization, and such things cannot excite or engage the grass roots activists.

The other side of that is that if you think controlling Democrats is like herding cats, you should try to organize the individualists that make up any grass roots effort.  Whew!

Note that the grass roots elements of the "tea party" movement are fighting among themselves something fierce.  It's fun to watch, but it's also instructive.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 13:57:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

a few things... (4.00 / 2)

First, I don't think the Obama campaign ever thought they could win New York.  Remember, their major opponent was a Senator from here, and reasonably tightly woven in with the local establishment.  That would limit connections by limiting effort.

Second, well, I'm not entirely shocked by any political group who would prefer not to weave too tightly with our various New York Democratic institutions.  I suspect the reasons for that are obvious here.

In Tompkins County, I think the Obama campaign did provide a place to go for a lot of folks who weren't thrilled with or weren't members of our county organization.  I just can't be surprised by the story of that rally - to be honest, I'm surprised it's that tame a story.  (There were lots of Obama supporters in the county committee, but I'm pretty certain we were far from a majority.)  And Obama did carry the county - the only one, if I remember right.

Beyond that, though, "all politics is local" simply isn't true for an awful lot of people.  I have a lot of strained conversations with people who know everything about healthcare but aren't sure which municipality they live in.  Some of them assume that all New York State Democrats must be good because they're Democrats, or just don't know anything about state politics.  There are a fair number of Republicans in a similar though opposite position.

Those folks vote in even-numbered years, or might come out if we show up on their doorstep and they aren't too busy election day.  They're often articulate, organized, and very impressive people - just not about politics at the local or state level.  NIMBY issues are often a great way to bring them out, as are PIMBY (please in my back yard). Otherwise, they devote their attention to the national scene.

And why not?  Information is readily available, there are huge communities of people you can work with, and you avoid a lot of the frustration inherent in getting people to care about local or even state issues.

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by: simonstl @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 15:04:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually agree there, Simon. (4.00 / 3)

When I say "all politics is local," I don't mean that people necessarily know or care about local issues-- often, as you point out they don't.  Well-educated, mobile people may be especially oblivious, and know more about Europe than their village.  I mean that you can only mobilize people, engage people, reach out to people as individuals.  Where people identify strongly with local communities, that may mean relating to local issues or politics.  Where they don't, it just means connecting with them starting from where they stand, who they are.

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by: robinia @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 23:04:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

that makes sense (4.00 / 2)

It's just a slightly different meaning of "local" than I'm used to.

Thanks for the clarification!

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by: simonstl @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 23:23:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Best In Thread (4.00 / 2)

It's a bifurcated party-- and the Organizing for America crew has forgotten the most important lesson of politics: all politics is local.  The digital age changed that less than you might think.

Emphasis mine -SP

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by: Soundpolitic @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 16:12:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Now it is part of the DNC . . . and not very effective so far. (0.00 / 0)

Lots of the President's supporters WERE NOT DEMOCRATS!!!  That's why you needed to go Bi-partisan to get anything done.  What a waste.  

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by: John Minehan @ Sat Feb 13, 2010 at 01:25:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Best Quote (4.00 / 3)

This was a great victory for the Tea Party Movement in New York State!
Once again, Long Island leads the way!

We won in a district the Liberals considered "safe". This district has been held by democrats for over 30 years!

Liberals (including ACORN and the Teachers Union) spent the last week promising to break the momentum of the Tea Party movement. WRONG!

We the People win again.

WE manned the phones. WE carryed the petitions. WE visited voters in their homes. WE picked up people and broght them to the polls. WE showed up and voted.

Not to diminish devtob's reporting, but this is what should be paid attention to.  I recall getting inticed into this movement with e-mails that could have replaced the word "Tea" with "Democratic."

Word.  For.  Word.

The progressive movement is no longer at the helm of the Internet.  We're going to have to share the wheel with these "teabaggers."  First step: remove the deragotory language to seize the high ground.

A very smart man taught us that lesson in the '08 campaign; we should stick behind somebody like that.  If there's an enthusaism gap, who's enthusiasm is that talking about?

You, baby, you!

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by: Soundpolitic @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 22:22:59 PM UTC

They call us Communists, Marxists, baby-killers, (4.00 / 2)

thieves, cheats, unpatriotic, etc.

Teabaggers is mild compared to that.

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by: devtob @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 22:31:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You killed my mojo (4.00 / 1)

I can't rec that like I normally rec all of your stuff.

I agree that the Tea Party movement is driven by anger.  And ignorance.  Their name-calling of us was an example of the same.  They wanted to associate us with something we were not, or just come up with something deragotory to muddy the waters of political communication.

With regard to those waters, we all have a long way to go until we retire to a lagoon in the Caribbean.  When we call them "teabaggers," we give them the opportunity to take offense, and the waters just become as murky as they were in Boston Harbor.  The same opportunity they give us when crying out other "mild" phrases.

Here's a mild phrase for TAPpers and Tea Drinkers to consider:  "Two wrongs don't make a right."

I hope someday we can stop this sort of thing at the source.  I highly recommended retiring the phrase "teabagger" and replacing it somethign like..."tea drinker."  You know...put the focus on what they're lapping up?

Or at least, conjuring an image of some old-fashioned tea-drinker might be less offensive to everyone instead of something like this:

::

Hey...my photobucket account!  You got off lucky this time!

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by: Soundpolitic @ Wed Feb 10, 2010 at 23:38:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But it isn't. The Tea Party people seem to be small business (0.00 / 0)

people who are really concerned with high taxes and activist government: both threats to their ricebowl.  Mostly well informed, at least in the Albany area, many engineers.

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by: John Minehan @ Sat Feb 13, 2010 at 01:29:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And didn't they call themselves teabaggers first? (4.00 / 1)

Rachel Maddow did a whole segment on it. She was getting panned from the right for it, so she ran the original announcment and footage of them declaring themselves "teabaggers."

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by: Clarknt67 @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 00:34:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The 89th (4.00 / 3)

In the 89th we had a perfect candidate who is already widely known throughout the district and a well financed and organized campaign with a ton of support from the unions and various organizations.

Yet we were crushed by an underfunded nobody who barely phoned it in.

People are voting 'No' and our candidates are bearing the brunt of voter disatisfaction. We need to work harder and we need to get better organized quickly or we're going to be crushed in November.  

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by: westchesterdem @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 00:20:07 AM UTC

I don't know if there's anything we can do (4.00 / 1)

if people are voting no because they're dissatisfied. What will satisfy them? Apparently, Republicans.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 00:26:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

How about anyone who understands economics and the Constitution? (0.00 / 0)

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by: John Minehan @ Sat Feb 13, 2010 at 01:30:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So then why vote Republican? (0.00 / 0)

You can't get someone more clueless about economics and the Constitution than a Republican.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Feb 13, 2010 at 06:24:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, that wonderful democratic Party tradition of (0.00 / 0)

Jimmy Carter.  I forgot how good we had it then.

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by: John Minehan @ Sat Feb 13, 2010 at 17:13:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

John, you're usually polite (0.00 / 0)

but what exactly inspires you to troll this place?  

I have to doubt that you still expect TAP folks to join arms with Tea Party folks and bring us all to a magical small-government world, though some of your early posts suggested that.

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by: simonstl @ Sat Feb 13, 2010 at 17:25:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

When all else fails (0.00 / 0)

fall back on the Jimmy Carter, nice.

What does this have to do with what said?  

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Feb 13, 2010 at 20:39:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The 89th (0.00 / 0)

Oh come on, organized campaign?  

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by: Flame @ Sun Feb 14, 2010 at 23:16:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Time for the Speaker to stir the pot... (0.00 / 0)

... and rejuvenate DACC and its strategies, and/or perhaps even pass the gavel to someone else before he becomes even more the poster child of incumbency in this fall's campaigns.

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by: teaparty2 @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 04:55:38 AM UTC

This is all about healthcare (4.00 / 1)

The failure of healthcare reform is keeping Democrats home.  I would not even be surprised if this ended up toppling Gillibrand in the fall.  

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by: Sean @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 05:52:16 AM UTC

Turnout was high in these specials (4.00 / 1)

Democrats did turn out, they voted for Republicans.

It has nothing to do with healthcare.  

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 14:44:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Healthcare? (0.00 / 0)

Sean,

Sorry but this was NOT about Healthcare. The Assembly race and/or the Assemblymen were not voting on HCR. This was about the state of New York State, which is controlled by Dems presently. Who knows what will happen next week, but for the election, Dems are in control.

People are hurting, hurting bad and they are not seeing their elected officials doing anything to alleviate that hurt.

Folks are out of work and all we hear coming out of Albany is budget cuts, which cut more jobs.

Hard times, and folks are either really angry or just plan fed up.  

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by: Flame @ Sun Feb 14, 2010 at 23:20:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Republicans win two Assembly Seats (4.00 / 2)

When you hold almost all the political offices - 2 US Senators, only 2 Republicans left in the NYS 29 member Congressional delegation, the State Assembly and Senate and all the Statewide offices - there is literally almost no place to go but down.

Having said that, in these past few elections (NY-23 and Bill Owens being the only bright spot), what made the difference was that the opposition wanted it more than the Democrats.  The Obama 'coalition' only cares about Obama and hasn't figured out that if they don't support Democrats in the down ballot races, the President won't have the votes he needs to move his agenda forward.  And if they don't pay attention to the state and local races, when the new district lines are drawn, they may be drawn by Republicans to the detriment of the Dems and the President.

Don't forget to fill out the Census questionnaires!

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by: Blue62 @ Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 14:32:16 PM UTC

Scott Murphy in NY-20 (0.00 / 0)

was a bright spot, too.

Can you imagine what Tedisco would be like in Congress!?

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by: devtob @ Fri Feb 12, 2010 at 00:27:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah. (0.00 / 0)

Unfortunately, yes, I can imagine.  His dogged pursuit of media attention, given a national platform, would have heaped non-stop embarrassing attention on the district and NYS, as well as dealing with all the bad votes.

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by: robinia @ Fri Feb 12, 2010 at 16:31:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He might be better served with a Republican majority as Clinton was. (0.00 / 0)

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by: John Minehan @ Sat Feb 13, 2010 at 01:32:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Tea Party movement is about limited government, lower taxes, (0.00 / 0)

responsibility and freedom.  With the failed stimulus plan, a health care plan no one liked, few understood and those that understood hated, you don't have any ideas that match them.

The Obama Administration could have re-invented the Entitlement State, shifted many things that are not government concerns back to the Social Sector where they belong and righted the ship of state.  Instead, they went back to unworkable Liberal nostrums.  

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by: John Minehan @ Sat Feb 13, 2010 at 01:20:17 AM UTC

The tea party movement (4.00 / 1)

is about white people who are afraid they're losing control of the country.

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Feb 13, 2010 at 06:26:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]