Report: Arcuri to Vote Against Healthcare?

so much for support from Tompkins (4.00 / 2)

County.  I sure hope he doesn't expect donations or volunteers from this corner of the district if he does this.

(And even if he wins in November, I'm guessing it'll be years before he can rebuild a reputation here.)

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by: simonstl @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 16:57:11 PM UTC

Yup. (4.00 / 3)

Am sending the url for this post right over to his campaign manager, as a follow-up to my email this morning, which ended with the words "tone deaf tone deaf tone deaf."

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by: robinia @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 18:03:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Any response? (4.00 / 1)

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by: Roatti @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 19:52:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup. (4.00 / 1)

They emailed and called. Tried to explain.

But, they got no response from me.  I'm done.

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by: robinia @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 01:35:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Isn't Ithaca in Hinchey's district? (0.00 / 0)

Whatever, Arcuri chose to diss his base big-time, and will lose his seat as a result.

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by: devtob @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 02:02:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

City and Town of Ithaca plus Town of Danby (0.00 / 0)

are in Hinchey's district.  The rest of Tompkins County is in Arcuri's district.

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by: simonstl @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 13:15:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

. (4.00 / 1)

I am thinking that Arcuri is trying to shore up the support of the independents/moderates in his district. He figures, and probably rightly so, that the a majority of the average Dems voter will still vote for him regardless of his vote on healthcare simply because they won't vote for a GOP candidate (hate the GOP more than him).

He had a tough battle in 2008 from a weak candidate and I would guess that he is thinking there is no way he will get re-elected supporting the healthcare bill because he will loose all Ind/moderate support and have zero chance of any GOP votes. I think he is banking on the Dems having a short memory and winning the support of the middle.

Or he really does not like the healthcare bill in it's current form.

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by: MattS @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 17:08:25 PM UTC

If HCR dies and we have a '94 repeat (4.00 / 2)

Arcuri will be the first to fall.  He's a moron, especially since he voted yes last time.  That ad is already cut and he has nothing to lose by voting for it now.  

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by: Roatti @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 17:24:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's why this is a problem for him (4.00 / 1)

If he just voted against it twice, he'd be fine. But by doing both, he'd piss off everyone.

Find a primary opponent. That'll get him in tune with his district faster than anything else.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 22:24:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

for it before he was against it (4.00 / 2)

Conservatives will hear the "for it" part of that and be angry, while progressives will hear the "against it" part and be angry.

And both of those plus some other folks will hear the "before he was" part and be annoyed.

And short memories between here and November?  I don't think so.

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by: simonstl @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 18:23:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Partly correct... (4.00 / 1)

He's appealing to the middle ground voters. Die hard Dems wills be pissed and die hard GOp won't vote for him, but the middle is where elections are won.

Short memories is what 90% of the US population have. People on here are the exception rather than the norm.  

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by: MattS @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 22:11:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think (0.00 / 0)

there's too many people who don't have an opinion on this. At least not people who matter who vote in mid term elections  

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by: Amherst Guy @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 22:26:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're Right Matt (0.00 / 0)

I just saw a column on the SI Advance that McMahon says the same thing.  Unfortunately for McMahon, Arcuri and others we will be out there in droves to remind people of their votes on Health Care.

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by: ROSALIE907 @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 00:23:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Most people in the middle also (4.00 / 1)

don't like the current health insurance system.

And Arcuri's vote to do nothing to change that will not help him much with independents/moderates.

It's a really stupid move.

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by: devtob @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 02:07:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Arcuri loses Tompkins County he loses the election. (0.00 / 0)

His margin of victory in 2008 was in large part provided by his sound defeat of Hanna in Tompkins County.  

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by: JML @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 14:48:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is a demonstrably bad strategy (4.00 / 4)

Owens came out supporting the health care bill and still won in NY-23.

The fact is that Republicans and conservatives are going to vote against Democrats in this year no matter what and independents are the ones you'll need to persuade with some direct campaigning.  Voting against the bill is going to suck out the support and groundwork activism that Arcurci will need to do just that by alienating his own base.

Democrats that are listening to the concern-trolling of the Republican Party are going to go down in flames.

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by: BingChester @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 17:20:49 PM UTC

If True, (4.00 / 3)

The man is just a fool.  And unlike Mr. T, I cannot pity the fool.

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by: prince nekhlyudov @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 17:23:59 PM UTC

electoral suicide (4.00 / 4)

He's a fool.  He should realize that the teabaggers aren't going to vote for him no matter what.  If he votes against health care reform all he's going to accomplish is severely depressing democratic/progressive turnout in his district come election day.

Is there any chance of him being challenged/beaten in the Democratic primary?

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by: BluePoster @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 17:40:29 PM UTC

Has anyone heard about Murphy? He's been under the (4.00 / 1)

radar.  The last I heard from him (about 10 days ago)was a telephone town meeting. He gave basically the same reason he gave back in December 2008 - concern about taxes on Medical Manufacturers and Paper Mills.   He did say he liked the Senate bill better than the House bill.

He has been quiet, not getting in front of the media about where he stands.

Don't ask me to call him again - I've called, faxed, emailed him about this.  I was at a fund-raiser for him where he got royally chewed out by the donors for not supporting the bill.

I like Murphy, but I hope he is weighing the options of holding on to a district with a majority Republican voters, but a majority of liberal activists and donors.

HylasBrook

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by: HylasBrook @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 18:21:31 PM UTC

Last I Read, (4.00 / 1)

He was on the Republican whip count as being a Yes vote.  However, last news report I saw from his office was that he is still undecided.  I too am sending him daily emails.  A No vote is a death wish.

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by: prince nekhlyudov @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 19:49:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Arcuri saw my last donation for him if he stands by a NO vote! (4.00 / 1)

Any Democrat opposing this now with the language all out there and the CBO report so favorable is just interested in forming the circular firing squad. It is pass this with its imperfections or say goodbye to November! Mike Arcuri, if we do not hang together we most certainly will hang separately on election day!  

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by: politics64 @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 18:41:37 PM UTC

Primary? (0.00 / 0)

I assume it's not too late.  This should be a realistic threat for anyone who votes against HCR.  It's going to be a fight to hold on to these seats, but let's at least make it a fight for Democratic principles.

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by: prince nekhlyudov @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 19:48:21 PM UTC

Betcha he doesn't show up at the Dems Rural Conference either. (0.00 / 0)

We need better Democrats.

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by: janed @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 20:55:51 PM UTC

these "moderate" Democrats make me (0.00 / 0)

scratch my head. Activists and donors like myself are, at least in part, responsible for their having gotten elected in the first place, due to the support from the national and state parties supported by us; their labor support is also, in part, why they were elected in the first place; independents are not against health care reform; and the overwhelming majority of Republicans who they are attempting to placate...will never vote for them no matter how they vote on this or anything else.

Plus...Democrats who consider themselves to be fiscally conservative...are shooting themselves in the foot because...this legislation is one of the best anti-deficit measures possible, since it will reduce our national debt by trillions of dollars, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office and others.

So...exactly how to moderates like Arcuri win by voting against health care reform?

My guess is that he will lose more supporters than he will gain.

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by: paco @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 23:35:32 PM UTC

I agree with........ (4.00 / 1)

almost every comment so far.  I live in this district and actually volunteered a little for his first campaign. Most of my time in 2008 was spent on the Obama campaign, but a lot of work was done to help him win a tight re-election fight. I think he vastly underestimates how this will anger the base.  The logic is flawed as others have said.  Further, there are issues that come up in Congress, but once in a blue that are of vital importance. This is one of them.  We elect leaders, not just representatives. Leaders lead when it is not politically expedient.  I am not a member of WF Party, but am close to becoming one and I always vote on that line if I have the option to vote for my candidate of choice that way. He has lost not only that, but probably 5% of his die hard progressive base, just foolish.  

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by: shepherd @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 03:27:03 AM UTC