Some Stability for the Upstate Economy

Controlled descent (4.00 / 3)

I guess it means that upstate NY has just been enjoying more of a controlled descent.  Sometimes I wonder if predictions of its ultimate doom aren't highly exaggerated.  James Kunstler, who lives around Saratoga Springs, is always spouting doom and gloom (much of which I generally agree with), but his prophesies seem to apply more to other, richer parts of the country.  One wonders if he actually gets out around the rest of Upstate and looks around.  

The descent process in Upstate maybe seems more painful because it's been slow.  Each little twist of the knife hurts (such as, news today that a beloved old diner in Syracuse is closing).  But it's not like we're taking California-style or Las Vegas-style body blows, at least not any more.

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by: NYCO @ Wed Mar 31, 2010 at 14:34:57 PM UTC

Stability for Upstate economy? Yeah, I guess. (4.00 / 3)

There's an old joke in medicine:
no patient is as "stable" as one who's dead.

The Upstate economy is stable, alright. That's because it's moribund, flatlined, cooling fast. Just drive through any neighborhood in Buffalo, other than a few small stretches of gentrification. I recently visited Syracuse for a course, and was stunned by the deterioration in just the last two years. It's starting to look like Buffalo, for golly's sake.

On the bright side, this is likely to be a temporary state of affairs. In another 10 years, 25 tops, we'll see a huge shift from the 'sunbelt' back to the rustbelt. According to current usage trends, Arizona/Nevada are going to be flat out of water within 15 years. As in, turn the tap and nothing comes out. Lotsa thirsty folks. Add in global warming that will turn the desert Southwest into a dusty furnace 9 months of the year, and...Buffalo will be the "new Phoenix/Tuscon".  

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by: Geoff Wittig @ Wed Mar 31, 2010 at 17:12:25 PM UTC

not likely (4.00 / 3)

The kind of development you envision can only be supported by oil that is running out.  (Just ask Obama today...)

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by: NYCO @ Wed Mar 31, 2010 at 17:46:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not necessarily true (4.00 / 2)

Water supplies are going to be a major factor throughout the west.  It's something that I didn't really grasp until I lived out there - the entire idea of "water rights" and why it's the major point of contention there.  Even without clmate change, the reality is that much of the West (California, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado) are hitting the limit when it comes to population and water supplies.  

Which means that either they discover new supplies of water (unlikely), restrict their population (difficult) or people and industries start to migrate to where water supplies are not a critical limiting issue - which turns out to be what is now the Rust Belt.  

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by: Norbrook @ Wed Mar 31, 2010 at 21:02:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gotta disagree. (4.00 / 2)

"Development" is completely beside the point. When you turn the kitchen faucet and nothing comes out, that's that. The huge migration of people into the desert Southwest is completely unsustainable at current water usage rates; even if not another person migrates there, the existing water sources will be tapped out within a single generation. Lake Mead is going to be bone dry in less than 15 years at the current "burn rate". Attempts to reduce water consumption have been spectacularly unsuccessful, and our current crisis of governance (i.e. teabaggers, a Republican party bent on sabotage as their best shot at returning to power) is making it impossible to address this effectively.

Add in global warming and massive shortfalls in predicted Rocky Mountain snowpack, and things are gonna hit the wall very abruptly in the next decade or two.

Even without oil, you're going to see a wave of 'environmental refugees' heading back toward the Great Lakes as the communties of the Southwest just flat run out of water.  

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by: Geoff Wittig @ Wed Mar 31, 2010 at 21:55:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, but... (4.00 / 3)

No one's arguing with a possible population shift.  What I am arguing is that a greater population isn't necessarily going to mean greater "prosperity" or a turnaround of northern cities.  You need unlimited future oil for "the new Phoenix/Tucson."

Also, there's still plenty of water in the Southeastern U.S., and warmer temperatures too.  

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by: NYCO @ Wed Mar 31, 2010 at 23:05:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not quite (0.00 / 0)

as the people there found out when they hit a drought.  As it was, their water systems are near capacity.  You're also overlooking the better potential for alternative energy (aside from sun) near the upstate cities.  It's not an insurmountable problem, and it doesn't necessarily require unlimited future oil.  

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by: Norbrook @ Fri Apr 02, 2010 at 02:54:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Albany has state government, (4.00 / 2)

universities and medical facilities; Glens Falls has tourism (especially if the metro includes Saratoga), some paper manufacturing, and a big hospital; Ithaca is a major college town.

Much of the rest of upstate depends on colleges, prisons, and local government/schools for decent jobs that support real estate values.

Or not.

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by: devtob @ Wed Mar 31, 2010 at 23:22:47 PM UTC

Not so much jobs, as the housing (4.00 / 1)

As per my comment below, I think Ithaca's performance has more to do with good housing and financial services than good jobs-- we have a perennially low unemployment rate, but really depressed wages.  Possibly the underemployment capital of NYS.  So, I see it less as economic prosperity and more as maintaining HOUSING stability through best practices in housing stock improvement and home finance.

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by: robinia @ Fri Apr 02, 2010 at 00:54:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Richard Deitz is the best! (0.00 / 0)

I really like everything that Richard and his office turn out; and he is a very nice guy, too.

That said, I don't read this the same way others here do.  I live in Ithaca, so, maybe I am prejudiced.... or, maybe I know the back-story.  I think the latter.  Ithaca has one of the best housing agencies in the state (full disclosure: my husband works for them, and I used to contract for them occasionally, too)-- applying a lot of building wisdom, TLC and energy efficiency to the housing stock, and keeping it affordable for low and moderate income homeowners.  And there are other housing agencies in the county, helping, too.  Then, the first housing agency I mentioned has an active loan department, working against the need for subprime mortgages (ESPECIALLY: getting people of color the best mortgage deal for which they qualify).  Ditto a local credit union open to all (full disclosure: my brother-in-law started it and ran it for decades...), with an emphasis on helping lower-income folks establish and keep good credit, and big outreach to the unbanked.

Doing things right in the housing market can actually work.  We might consider replicating this....

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by: robinia @ Fri Apr 02, 2010 at 00:49:21 AM UTC