First, here's what Hernandez gets right, which is buried in the middle of the story, after the scary stuff and quotes from Gillibrand opponents:
Running for Senate in New York is a big undertaking. It takes doggedness, a thick skin and a lot of money.
It has undoubtedly helped Ms. Gillibrand that her powerful allies, like the state's senior senator, Charles E. Schumer, and President Obama, have helped ward off potential Democratic challengers.
But a more likely explanation is that Ms. Gillibrand possesses assets most of the aspiring senators lack.
She has a legitimate geographic base, having represented an Albany-area Congressional district in a part of the state where her family is prominent. She has a network of donors, especially women, who are not going to abandon her. She has a commitment to working her tail off to keep the seat, a fact that even her political enemies grudgingly acknowledge.
And, perhaps most important, she has $5.1 million in her campaign account.
Indeed, Gillibrand's high-level allies, political smarts, fund-raising prowess, and support from much of the Democratic base (labor, women, GLBT, netroots, etc.) obviously had an effect in dissuading potential Democratic challengers.
Unmentioned is that Gillibrand has been a strong supporter of President Obama and his programs, both of which are quite popular across the state. And that she is incredibly effective in person.
Republicans like Rudy 9/11, Peter King, Susan Molinari, Mort Zuckerman, and Bloomberg's girlfriend also took a look, and decided against, even though her allies, her appeal to the base, and her votes for the stimulus, HCR, etc., shouldn't have mattered much to them.
Hernandez' quoted sources for the story betray a continuing anti-Gillibrand bias at the Times. Four are named -- Al Sharpton, Vito Lopez, Trippi and Scott Stringer -- and a "Republican strategist" and a "Gillibrand adviser" are unnamed.
The quotes are unbalanced against Gillibrand, as you can read, in the order they appeared in the story.
Sharpton:
I think Gillibrand either has mystical powers or the best luck I have ever seen in politics. It is amazing.
Sharpton gives Gillibrand no credit at all for being a formidable candidate in her own right for lots of political reasons -- she's just lucky and/or a witch.
Lopez, who is a Democratic assemblyman, chairman of the Brooklyn Democratic Committee, and, nonetheless, a Bloomberg ally:
It's been extremely frustrating. No one has told me directly why they dropped out.
Obviously, potential Democratic challengers saw the handwriting on the wall, as Lopez would have were he not so devoted to the city's Republican mayor.
Trippi, whose consulting to the brief campaign of Rep. Carolyn Maloney of Manhattan last year included polluting DKos with sockpuppets:
I really did feel like this was the one that got away. I felt we could have won that seat.
And I could be an astronaut. Trippi's relentlessly negative, and at times deceptive, campaign for Maloney did nothing to convince Democrats who were paying attention last summer that they should dump Gillibrand. Maloney recognized that, and Trippi obviously is disappointed that his $10K-a-month gig with her only lasted one month.
Anonymous GOP strategist:
She remains vulnerable to a surprising degree at this stage of the game. But the vulnerability that Gillibrand has is offset by her dominant cash position; that is what has made Democrats blink and it is what has made Republicans blink.
Another campaign guy who's pissed he missed out on several months of five-figure-a-month checks.
Anonymous Gillibrand adviser:
She is weak, but she is no pushover. So there's a lot to lose in running against her. Nobody is willing to take the risk.
Pinch must have loved the first three words of that quote. But they are overwhelmingly related to Gillibrand's lack of name recognition, which is still reflected in the polls.
Once she begins to campaign full-bore, her name recognition and approval rating will rise substantially.
Finally, Stringer, who had considered challenging Gillibrand, decided against, and endorsed her:
Who's the parakeet now? It was hers to fumble. A lot of people thought she would.
The "parakeet" thing refers to a Harold Ford slur that Gillibrand is a parrot for Schumer. Ford knows as much about birds as he does about New York politics.
Six quotes, none of them all-positive about Gillibrand, and none which makes this basic point -- Gillibrand is a hard-working, left-center Democrat whose policy positions and votes align with a solid majority of New York voters.
Sure, she's a good fund-raiser, and that's always important.
But Gillibrand also has earned the strong support of the activist portion of the Democratic base that's paying attention now.
The rest of the base will get that in November, and help elect her for the first of many times in November.
P.S. The Times story was probably inspired by this March 26 story at Talking Points Memo by Evan McMorris-Santoro.
No credit or link, natch. |
