SD-58: We're officially screwed.

Thanks for the reminder to support all these excellent candidates (0.00 / 0)

I'm going to try to give a little to each.

By the way, not sure why this happens with Act Blue, but the link you used for Desiree Hunter (who is taking on perhaps  biggest Pigeonite of them all -- Pedro Espada) understates the support she has gotten on Act Blue.  This link shows a true accounting of all her online support, which is more than twice what the other link shows:

http://www.actblue.com/entity/...

Of course she and all these worthy candidates need more support if we are to have any chance at real progressive reform in Albany.  From what I am seeing here in the Bronx, I really like our chances of sending Charlie Ramos and Desiree to Albany to oust Diaz and Espada.  It would be great to hear reports from these other districts about what folks are hearing and seeing.

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by: Jackbx @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 00:09:18 AM UTC

Adama, great post...up until the point about being ashamed to be a New Yorker. (4.00 / 1)

I'm already ashamed by the current state senate. They are better than the old guys, but just barely.  

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by: nyspol1 @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 00:41:37 AM UTC

Read it again. (0.00 / 0)

The current State Senate is who I'm referring to. The opportunity to not be ashamed is for next year. But thanks.

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by: Adama D. Brown @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 01:06:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You left a few out... (4.00 / 1)

Didi Barrett (SD-41) has a better shot than a few, if not most of the people on that list. Mary Wilmot (SD-55) could be in the same boat, as she has a family name known in Rochester and can be very competitive against Alesi.

As for SD-58, it was a sign for Cooney that he wasn't cutting it when Sam Hoyt endorsed Stachowski. Stachowski was better than the alternative (Kennedy) but neither are ideal. It gives Democrats a tough choice: Do you back the guy who does have some progressive ideals, but connections to Pigeon? Or do you back the guy who is probably a losing bet in the primary and general election?

Tough decisions.  

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by: NYProgressive @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 01:18:47 AM UTC

Senate Races (0.00 / 0)

38th - The 6,000 bloc votes from the Hasidic villages will go to County Exec Scott Vanderhoff just like last year in the county exec race.

58th - The Conservatives endorsed Kennedy. This sets up a possible 3-way race with Stac, Kennedy and Quinn. To bad Quinn is not the Conservative nominee, then this race would REALLY be over.  

Also, the post calls Bill Stac a 20-year incumbent.. He is closer to being a 30-year incumbent as he was elected in a special election in 1981.

1st- Forget about it
22nd-Forget about it
53rd-Forget about it
56th-Forget about it
59th-Forget about it

A victory against Espada is realistic. Not so for Rev. Diaz.

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by: GOP_RIP @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 02:26:34 AM UTC

Okay, who are you and what do you think you know? (0.00 / 0)

Because if you were in a position to know anything about the races you're blowing off, then I would know who you are.  

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by: Adama D. Brown @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 04:14:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't be so stupid. (4.00 / 1)

OPEN SEATS.  Pam Mackesey has a chance, and so do the other open-seat candidates.  

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by: neroden @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 06:05:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ummm.... (0.00 / 0)

I am rooting as hard as I can for Pam.... but, honestly, it is quite an uphill battle for a Tompkins County legislator to overcome a sitting Assembly member representing the district already in a predominantly Republican district that just suffered the Eric Massa effect.  We should surely give it everything we've got.... not "forget about it".... but, we should also be realistic that "open seat" is not a very precise definition of conditions on the ground here... To mount an effective campaign in this district will take a lot of money and effort.

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by: robinia @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 13:23:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't write off Carlucci b/c of the bloc (0.00 / 0)

There are a number of scenarios in which Carlucci can beat the bloc vote. He needs money and volunteers.
Vanderhoef's county exec opponent won the secular vote in 2009 with a weak campaign, but the turnout was too low to put him over. Carlucci can get the few thousand extra votes he needs to overcome the bloc b/c far more Dems turn out in a gubernatorial year. Also, there is no way of knowing if the whole bloc will fully go for Vanderhoef. If it looks like the Senate will stay Dem they could intentionally split to hedge their bet. Keep in mind that 1/3 of the Republicans are angry that their choice for Senator, Ed Day, got shafted. A number have threatened to back Carlucci. This could be interesting.  

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by: LOBlue @ Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 03:15:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

38th (0.00 / 0)

This could be true, Scott VDH squeaked by in 2009 due the voter fatigue with his running for a 5th term. Lucky for him there was the bloc vote and anti-democrat sentiment.

Also, Rockland republicans are accused of not running any candidates for Clarkstown and Ramapo Supervisor to keep turnout low in the Democratic towns during election years for County Exec.

Interestingly Senator Tom Morahan had more votes in his senate race than the Presidential race as many Hasidic voters passed on the presidential race as there were an unusually large amount of blank votes for President in the Villages of Kasar and New Square.

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by: GOP_RIP @ Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 03:40:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Intrigued by the 56th (0.00 / 0)

What is going on in this ridiculously gerrymandered district?  What can people in that neck of the woods report?  Just looking at the map and the registration numbers suggests this is winnable.  I know a little about Robach's history -- why isn't he more vulnerable in this current climate?  There is a significant gay community in Rochester -- are they organizing for Wilt?

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by: Jackbx @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 04:05:13 AM UTC

Missed a few (4.00 / 1)

11th - Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan
40th - Mike Kaplowitz for open seat

Bill Stachowski is the longest-serving Democrat in the state Senate, yet during the coup he was nowhere to be found.  He's a complete waste of a Senate seat when he isn't busy going against Democratic principles.  Despite that, I'd back him over a Pigeon-follower, as Stac is probably not far from being done anyway and the last thing we need (other than a Republican takeover) is a Pigeon-ophile who will probably be around for a while.

Also, I disagree with "GOP_RIP" that Regina Calcaterra can't beat Ken LaValle in the 1st district.  Congressman Tim Bishop is going to be mounting a huge campaign against whoever the Republicans put up against him, and that means a large GOTV effort that Calcaterra can capitalize on.  She's tough, smart, and as prepared a challenger as I've seen in quite some time.  Also, the district is rapidly trending blue; it still has a Republican edge, but that edge is narrowing very quickly.

Finally, Charlie Ramos (who is challenging Diaz) is having a fundraiser tomorrow night in downtown Manhattan, at City Tavern, 22 E. 13th St., starting at 7:00.  Contributions can also be made online at https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/entity/24093.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 04:12:18 AM UTC

Is Kaplowitz running? (0.00 / 0)

I was going to list him since that's an open seat, but all I could find were references to him running in 2008.  

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by: Adama D. Brown @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 04:17:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's running (0.00 / 0)

His website (linked above) is clearly for 2010.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 12:00:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You forgot another good prospect... (0.00 / 0)

SD44: Susan Savage v. Farley

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by: teaparty2 @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 06:58:24 AM UTC

1st District Calcaterra In Lavalle Out (0.00 / 0)

Come down to the 1st Senatorial District and meet a candidate who has been campaigning for almost two years and who has developed tremendous support in the district.
The demographics and numbers have changed in this district which is the most diverse in NYS. Since 2004 the district has been voting 60% Democratic at the top of the ticket and 4 out of 5 Assembly  members are Democrats.

Lavalle has grown out of touch with the district just as Caesar Trunzo had in the district next door.

If you want to beat a reactionary Republican this year come to the first District and work for Regina Calcaterra.

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by: Socrates @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 10:14:47 AM UTC

50th Senate District.... (0.00 / 0)

...Kathleen Joy, a Syracuse city councilor, is the strongest Democrat that has run against DeFrancisco (aka locally as...Defraudisco (because he's  fraud in almost every sense of the word)) in a long time.

So...while DeFraudisco has massive amounts of money (having sold himself out shamelessly to the wealthy elites and special interests)...given the right circumstances...including anti-incumbent anger against state legislators...and a strong campaign by Joy...this has the potential to be competitive.

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by: paco @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 16:38:13 PM UTC

I have to disagree with your list (0.00 / 0)

to a certain extent, anyway.

1) Mike DiSanto is not a top pick-up.  
2) Where's Tony Avella?  That's probably the best pick-up in the entire state.
3) Lynn Nunes against Shirley Huntley is a pretty decent opportunity.
4) Where's Mike Kaplowitz against Greg Ball?  That's probably a better red to blue pick-up than anything else on this list except for the previously mentioned Avella.

I will say that I'm thoroughly disappointed that Sean dropped out.  I liked Sean a lot and thought we had a great shot with him.  We really are screwed now with the 58th; we either get a mediocre Democrat like Stack who will probably lose to Quinn or a traitorous Pigeon/Golisano ally like Kennedy who will become his own Gang of Treachery.  

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by: BingChester @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 20:12:20 PM UTC

It's a bummer (0.00 / 0)

I spoke with Sean about campaign finance reform.  (He knew I had written a great deal on the subject, and reached out to me.)  He was genuinely interested in real reform, and also in truly grasping the details of an issue, rather than just the stump-speech buzz phrases.

My impression (and it was my impression when I spoke with him) is that he went into this a little bit wide-eyed, and was lacking in the hard, harsh reality of campaigns.

We need a long-term program to train reformers in how to win elections.  We need to combine it with a method for connecting them with people who can get them elected -- which, right now, means people with money.  I know there are several people on this blog who can manage the first part very well; the problem is finding people who can handle part II.

Any suggestions?

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 20:24:07 PM UTC

History (0.00 / 0)

First off, this is not a year to be a Democratic, except if you are Cuomo. The billion dollar tax increases that will be passed later this week along with the one party rule in Albany will likely cost the Democrats 3-4 senate seats (3, 48, 49, 58 (my guess).  i do not believe that the Republicans are in any danger of losing any of the 4 open seats.

In fact, the Republicans have only lost one of their OPEN seats during November elections since 1998 (I am excluding all specials). The only loss was in the 34th (Guy Velella) during a 3-way race back in 2004. The Republican candidate stopped accepting campaign cash from the SRCC cause he was attacked by Klein ("you claim to be a reformer but you take Bruno money??). Klein only won 51% of the vote.

Republican Open Seats - November elections

1998 - Bonacic

2000 - None

2002 - Robach (R-pickup), Flanagan, Golden (new seat created), Betty Little

2004 - Winner   (J. Klein- D Pickup)

2006 - Lanza, Griffo (Spitzer 1.8M vote landslide)

2008 - McDonald, Ranzenhofer (Obama 2M vote landslide)

Other than the Velella seat, I believe that the last Democrat to win an open Republican seat AND which had a majority of Republicans was Suzi Oppenheimer back in the Reagan landslide in 1984.

Finally, if the Democrats could not knock off Padavan, Robach and Hannon, (they were VERY VERY close in each race), during the Obama 2M vote rout in 2008, they definitely will not be winning these seats this year with a much lower turnout in the minority communities and anti-Democratic feelings.

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by: GOP_RIP @ Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 23:35:37 PM UTC

There are some flaws in this analysis (0.00 / 0)

For example, the minority vote in Avella's district or Kathleen Joy in Syracuse isn't really the main base that the candidates are pushing.

And furthermore, all politics is local.  With issues like marriage equality (which plays in any district south of Dutchess and some of the urban upstate district) as well as the general Republican intransigence, we can hammer some of them.  

And that's really the point.  2010 is a bad year to be an INCUBMENT.  On both sides.

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by: BingChester @ Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 02:42:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Padavan (0.00 / 0)

The demographics in S-11 shifted dramatically in the 1990's to the point where the 2000 census indicated that the district only had a non-Hispanic white population of 52%.  The 1990 census had a non-Hispanic white population of 70%.

The swing vote is the large and growing Asian population, which was 24.5% of the population as of 2000. However, I agree blacks are a small minority of the population, only 5.6% as of 2000. Hispanics are 13%.

http://www.latfor.state.ny.us/...

But in non presidential years, the incumbent is generally going to be favored unless a specific issue can be pinned on them or the opponent is running strong.  The base comes out in this type of election and it ain't a year for the Democrats.  

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by: GOP_RIP @ Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 03:25:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If the base is who's voting, the Republicans had best worry. (0.00 / 0)

Since most Republican voters believe that their own representatives don't deserve reelection.

I'm not going to argue excessively with your analysis save to say that I disagree entirely. You're pushing conventional wisdom about it supposedly being a bad year for Democrats without regard to the fact that recent polls show Democratic voter enthusiasm equaling or matching that of the Republicans, massive anti (Republican) incumbent sentiment, and the fact that all the top levels of the ticket are going to be a blowout in the Dems favor, dragging down Republican turnout.  

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by: Adama D. Brown @ Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 05:13:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

huh? (0.00 / 0)

One of the first rules that you learn in politics is that Asians and Caucasians vote in identical and indistinguishable patterns.

Racial demographics are a crude and dated way to segment people, and politics are basically the only arena where people still think that way. Gatorade doesn't target black people because they're often considered to be better athletes; they target athletes (regardless of race) because athletes need Gatorade.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 11:15:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Count 'em all (0.00 / 0)

Why exclude special elections for open seats? Perhaps because Aubertine and Johnson won?

The reason Dems didn't win those 3 races in 2008 deserves scrutiny:

In SD11 (Padavan), Tony Avella didn't run, so Jim Gennaro stepped up. He had almost no name recognition going in (his City Council district barely overlaps), and almost no support from the party, yet he came that close on his own.

In SD6 (Hannon) Dems ran another virtual unknown with no party support. Same result.

I don't know about the other race, but I suspect a similar lack of party support at least.

(BTW, all three Repubs lost on the R vs. D vote; they won on the C and I lines.)

This points up a longstanding problem -- the DSCC and state party have done a lousy job.  In 2006, for example, the DSCC backed a guy in SD3 who had contributed to the Repub in 2004 -- he lost the primary, and cost us that seat. Yes, we won the seat in 2008, but we could have concentrated on picking up other seats.

Klein won because Velella went to jail. Valesky won because Tom Dadey ran on the C line, splitting the R/I/C vote. Serrano won because Mendez switched parties. Aubertine and Johnson won because of Spitzer's money.

Back to 2006:  Initially, the plan was to defend Valesky and put Stewart-Cousins over the top -- and nothing else. As Repub fortunes fell, that strategy was never revisited. We could have picked up at least two more seats if the people in charge had been paying attention.  As a result, Dems would have had control during the bulk of the Spitzee year, and enough of a majority now to get things done.    

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 13:25:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Specials (0.00 / 0)

"Why exclude special elections for open seats? Perhaps because Aubertine and Johnson won?"

---------------------------------

Nah..it's just my analysis of November elections which is where we are heading at this point. But I will give Client-9 credit for eliminating the non-aggression pact and campaigning/raising cash for the D's in the 7th and 48th which resulted in the D's taking the senate in 2008.

Republicans also lost a special in the spring of 2002 (Roy Goodman's old seat now occupied Liz Kruger (26th SD).

 

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by: GOP_RIP @ Thu Jul 01, 2010 at 00:10:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Valesky wont lose (0.00 / 0)

His district went for Obama by almost 20 points and he won easily in 2006 and 2008.  I doubt Foley loses either, since his opponent lost by 16 points in 2008 in NY-01, which is about four points more Republican than SD-03.  Republicans need a popular local officeholder to beat Foley.  I agree on SD-49 and SD-58, but I have to beleive that Avello will beat Padavan.  That district is just too Democratic for Padavan to hold onto against someone like Avello with Gillibrand and Cuomo romping in the district.

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by: Sean @ Fri Jul 02, 2010 at 06:36:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The tax increases (0.00 / 0)

have nothing to do with why things are looking down for the Dems in SS-58.

But Stach got some incredibly good press today that might me the push he needs.

Don't forget that he managed to beat an incredibly powerful "change" candidate and local hero 2 years ago.

Voters in WNY are very good at ignoring third candidates who can't win. We're not heros, we're not visionaries, we're not dreamers. If you can't win, we aren't voting for you. Don't be fooled into thinking a 3-way race will badly hurt the Dem nominee. Now the bruising primary...

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by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Jul 02, 2010 at 19:18:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That district is Democratic enough (0.00 / 0)

And doesnt it look like Quinn wont have the Conservative line?  That would be a killer for him.

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by: Sean @ Tue Jul 06, 2010 at 00:00:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

One more brand new possibility (0.00 / 0)

SS-61. I'm not saying who but keep an eye out.

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by: Amherst Guy @ Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 02:11:40 AM UTC

Let's not forget Igor Oberman (0.00 / 0)

vs. Carl Kruger

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by: Roatti @ Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 19:50:19 PM UTC

Igor dropped out (0.00 / 0)

Sorry.

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by: Dan Jacoby @ Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 20:27:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]