| Overall list:
1- Tony Avella
2- Desiree Pilgrim-Hunter
3- Mike Kaplowitz
4- Regina Calcaterra
5- Charlie Ramos
6- David Carlucci
7- Kathleen Joy
8- Lynn Nunes
9- Robin Wilt
10- Susan Savage
1) SD-11: Tony Avella
This is by far the best pick-up opportunity in the state for many reasons. Jim Gennaro came brutally close to defeating Frank Padavan in this Northeast Queens district back in 2008 with practically no support from any statewide actors. In that regard this race looks an awful lot like SD-38, where Andrea Stewart-Cousins won 2 years later after nearly dethrowning Nick Spano with no support. Furthermore, Avella is arguably the most popular politician in this district. He was always extremely popular as a City Councilman for his unorthodox mix of progressive populism with certain conservative flairs thrown in. Avella also has the added benefit of great name recognition in the district, as his City Council district is entirely encompassed in the State Senate district (something that couldn't be said for Gennaro).
For the purposes of the weekly update, Padavan has really worked in overdrive this week to prove his independence. While he voted against the MMA bill and no-fault divorce, he did support the Schneiderman micro-stamping bill. He's also been an outspoken critic of the budget, which is rare for a senator that prefers to work on constituent service in order to lull his Democratic constituents about his strong conservative policies. This is a great opportunity and we have a great candidate, so Tony Avella will remain #1 on this list for the foreseeable future.
2) SD-33: Desiree Pilgrim-Hunter
I know that there are other candidates in the race to replace Pedro Espada but Desiree Pilgrim-Hunter continues to ride above the rest of the pack. She received an extremely nice bump on The Huffington Post and continues to be the most prominent campaign in the field and within progressive organizations. Rumor has it that Desiree has raised a nice chunk of change here and I could see Gustavo Rivera ending his campaign if his quarterly filing looks less than promising.
The worst thing that could happen here is a drawn-out, multi-candidate primary. I've set the bar at three; if there are more than 3 candidates (including Espada) on the ballot, then Espada's odds greatly improve. But if we end up with 3 or less candidates, I think Espada is gone and Desiree Pilgrim-Hunter will be our next State Senator. The quarterly reports and the petition efforts will be crucial here, but for now I'm staying optimistic and slotting this one in at #2.
3) SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz
Here's our second best opportunity to flip a seat blue. This race is arguably cousin of the Avella-Padavan race: two heavy-hitter politicians, both fairly popular in the district, in a district trending blue. The two differences are that a) Greg Ball is running instead of Vinny Leibell, and b) the 40th is more conservative than the 11th. That being said, Kaplowitz came within striking distance against Leibell last time and he has great momentum going into this race.
Greg Ball also finds his name in the paper this week for arguably violating the law by using public footage of himself at Assembly proceedings in his campaign ads. That's no surprise to those of us who read TAP and the always excellent Ball Monitor . While Greg Ball might seem like a tough opponent, he's also an unhinged conservative who was a teabagger before there were teabaggers. I expect Kaplowitz to take full advantage of that and strike in the fertile territory of Northern Westchester, where a large proportion of the votes in the 40th reside.
4) SD-1: Regina Calcaterra
On paper, this is not one of our best pick-up opportunities. The 1st Senate District is not particularly fertile grounds for a Democrat and Senator Ken LaValle isn't known as a particularly awful guy. But the fact is that Regina Calcaterra is running and she's running hard. Regina has hit the news consistently with a flurry of well-timed media strikes, campaign advertisements, and good works throughout the district. She also has an incredible profile of lifting herself up out of poverty and as a plaintiff's lawyer fighting for shareholder justice against corporate fraud.
This week was another good one for Calcaterra as she continues to fire away at the inane logic of her opponent, specifically lambasting his lack of support for public and affordable education. Regina also made the most of her support of the NY Uprising Pledge and got it picked up in a few political blogs. As in prior weeks, her campaign is the picture of a well-functioning machine and its that sort of efficiency that will really make the difference in tough turf like the 1st.
5) SD-32: Charlie Ramos
Ok, quick disclosure: I am an active and involved volunteer for Charlie Ramos's State Senate campaign against Ruben Diaz Sr., so I might be accused of optimism on this ranking. No one doubts that toppling Rev. Diaz is quite a challenge, but Charlie is up to the job. We held a great young professional fundraiser for Charlie this past week and support from the LGBT community has been picking up on the heels of the Pride Parade.
The reason this district is winnable, notwithstanding the opposition of the Bronx machine, is that Rev. Diaz simply can't stop himself from the crazy. He stood against the budget on extending tax benefits to same sex couples recognized by the state and then claimed that he was supporting the couples by sheltering them from taxes. That's a little like a California politician saying they support marijuana users by voting against the legalization efforts so they can avoid paying sales tax. Diaz also voted against no-fault divorce based on his expected moral superiority complex. With another week of budget shenanigans ahead, I imagine that the good Reverend will continue to feed the fire and provide more ammunition for Charlie's campaign.
6) SD-38: David Carlucci
Over in Rockland County we have a pure open seat opportunity, and boy it's a doozy. Former Lt. Governor nominee and County Executive C. Scott Vanderhoef is facing opposition for his attempted coronation from Clarkstown County Clerk David Carlucci, a young upstart progressive. I was especially impressed with Carlucci's statement this week about hydrofracking, which was especially thought-out and masterfully incorporated the Gulf spill as a strong argument against the Marcellus Shale bamboozle of a drilling plan.
Carlucci already has received some progressive support in the form of the WFP endorsement and the local CWA affiliate, which has a nice pocket of members around New City. The trick here will be mitigate the likely support for Vanderhoef from the hassidic community as well as navigating some interfere from the often slimy Christopher St. Lawrence. I think Carlucci is the guy to do it, but this race could get tricky.
7) SD-50: Kathleen Joy
Our first real upstate race (sorry kids, I'm from Westchester so I can attest to the fact that the 40th and the 38th are not upstate). Kathleen Joy is an experienced Councilmember in Syracuse and is probably the most competitive Democratic to run against DeFrancisco in quite some time. I've heard she's gotten some traction on her anti-incumbency arguments, as this is one of those races in the state where the incumbent has been in Albany for decades. Joy got a late start in this race but I get the sense that she's already making up ground. I will be extremely curious to see how her filings look in a few weeks, but this is a winnable race in Syracuse.
8) SD-11: Lynn Nunes
Lynn is another one of our great reform based progressive challengers to a sitting Democratic incumbent, this one being Shirley Huntley. His campaign received a great bump from City Hall News a few weeks ago but I don't sense any momentum out in Southeast Queens. I've heard very little about this race in the past few weeks. I do think this is a great opportunity for marriage equality advocates, but Nunes needs to get his face out there a little more than he currently has.
9) SD-56: Robin Wilt
Robin Wilt's campaign dynamic reminds me a bit of Kathleen Joy in Syracuse, except the 56th is a bit more Democratic in greater Rochester but also has a slightly stronger incumbent in former Democrat Joe Robach. Robin only announced her campaign a few weeks ago and Robach has proven adept at fending off Democratic challengers (as he did against Dollinger in 2008). Let's see how this one develops.
10) SD-44: Susan Savage
Rounding out our list is Susan Savage's campaign against Hugh Farley. This race makes my list because it's probably the best pick-up opportunity in the Albany area, Hugh Farley hasn't run a truly competitive race for years, and Savage is a known commodity as a major player in the County Legislature. That being said, I've seen almost no life out of the Savage campaign. Another one where we need to see more life out of the campaign.
Off the list but on the radar:
SD-41: Didi Barrett
SD-22: Mike Disanto
SD-53: Pam Mackesey
SD-55: Mary Wilmot |
