| Top Ten
1) SD-33: Gustavo Rivera
It's hard to fully explain how great the past two weeks have been from Gustavo Rivera. He's gone from appearing like the also ran to being the top candidate to pushing out his main competitor in the race to be the reform option against Pedro Espada. It started with the endorsement of the New Roosevelt Institute and then followed with a series of unflattering interviews and blog pieces with Desiree Pilgrim-Hunter. Next thing you know, Desiree is out of the race, Gustavo has the Working Families endorsement, and he ended the quarter with a respectable haul of 65,000.
What's especially noteworthy here is that Gustavo has momentum. At the end of the financial filing he was the 4th "hottest" page on all of ActBlue. The vast majority of the money he raised was done in the last two weeks, including several thousand raised in small (under $100) contributions on July 11th. There's obviously no guarantee when your opponent is Pedro Espada, but things are looking good for Gustavo.
2) SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz
I'm upgrading Mike Kaplowitz to the best chance to flip a seat. I've been a fan of Mike's since 2006 and I think there's several factors in his favor. His filing was strong (119k) and his campaign operation is looking smooth. More importantly, the negatives keep racking up against Greg Ball. At some point you have to think that all of these crazy stories about Ball (brought to us on a play-by-play basis by the always great DeWitt and the Ball Monitor) are going to start to affect his standing in the district. Ball is simply over the top and completely out of touch with the actual problems in the district. With a strong Westchester turnout in this swing district, I see Mike Kaplowitz as a future State Senator. Like all competitive races this is going to take a lot of work, but Mike has the pieces in place to make it happen.
3) SD-11: Tony Avella
Tony gets bumped down this week because of a severely disappointing filing. Tony managed to only raise 84k in the quarter. This is despite the fact that Tony is a) an established name who just ran a city-wide operation, b) running against a Republican incumbent in New York City, and c) running against an opponent who voted for marriage equality. As a colleague of mine pointed out, Jim Gennaro broke 100k in the same filing in 2008 and he wasn't nearly as well-known as Avella. Padavan is a well-funded incumbent that the GOP will spend a lot to protect, so Tony needs to get his fundraising in gear to properly fund what will be an expensive and bloody battle of titans.
4) SD-1: Regina Calcaterra
The Calcaterra campaign continues to roll merrily along, as Regina raised a cool $147,00 and has $178,000 on hand. She's also been managing her volunteers fantastically and I've heard great reports about volunteer events over the past few weekends. Lavalle will be a well funded incumbent but Regina appears to be in an extremely strong position and she's poised to receive generous support from the DSCC, both financially and in man-power. This is going to be the race to watch, and if we pick up SD-1, it's almost certain that our majority is safe and being built on the backs of strong progressives like Calcaterra.
5) SD-44: Susan Savage
Here's one thing you never want to hear when you're an incumbent in an anti-incumbent year; your opponent has raised more than you. That's exactly what Hugh Farley found out when Savage reported raising 75k, compared to a measly 45k by her opponent. Sure Farley is sitting with $381,000 on hand, but don't discount the power of the big "Mo". The strong showing by Savage helps to bump her into the Top 5. I'll be curious to see what sort of institutional support she starts to win in this suburban Albany district.
6) SD-38: David Carlucci
Carlucci stays right where he is as we get into the petition fight phase of this Rockland campaign, something Rockland operatives should be quite familiar with at this point. There are a lot of moving pieces at work, including Grant Valentine's status in the Democratic primary and an Independence line fight with Vanderhoef. But Carlucci has proved to be a solid candidate with a strong team and a decent haul of 43k (decent considering that Carlucci wasn't officially a candidate until fairly recently). This race has a lot of potential but Vanderhoef is the 800 pound gorilla of Rockland and it remains to be seen if he's unbeatable or if the voters have Vanderhoef-fatigue.
7) SD-32: Charlie Ramos
I've downgraded Charlie from 5 to 7 because of a disappointing financial filing (34k raised and a high burn-rate), but I'm keeping him at 7 where others might kick him out of the top 10 all together. Why? Because Ruben Diaz is beatable. Sure he raised $120,000, but check underneath the numbers. He received contributions from only 12 individuals, and only one of them lives in the Bronx! This report more than any other shows that Diaz is a tool of special interests and does not represent his district. That leaves him quite vulnerable to the type of grassroots, field-oriented, voter-to-voter campaign that Ramos is running. This is a winnable race folks.
8) SD-43: Joanne Yepsen
Making her top ten debut is Joanne Yepsen, running against Roy McDonald in the infamous Joe Bruno seat. Joanne had quite a nice filing, raising $71,000 in just a few months. She shares the honor with Sue Savage of outraising her opponent, but McDonald is in an even more precarious position having raised only 44k and having spent at a nearly 1-1 rate. Ouch! Yepsen's campaign doesn't seem as strong or media driven as Savage's but this is a race to watch. McDonald is an untested first term Senator and Joe Bruno's name doesn't carry the same weight in Saratoga County that it used it these days.
9) SD-6: Dave Mejias
Also entering the top ten is Dave Mejias, running against Kemp Hannon in Long Island. There are a lot of positives here; you can be sure that state party chair Jay Jacobs will have a lot of interest in winning a seat on his home turf. Mejias also raised 116k, quite a strong job for a candidate that didn't officially declare until late in the cycle. But I'm not fully convinced yet about Mejias's viability. I've never been a fan of candidates running only a year after they lost their last election (in this case his county legislature seat) and Mejias has a bad track record with the larger seats. Let's see if Dave can get things back on track against arguably the weakest incumbent in Long Island.
10) SD-41: Didi Barrett
Ok, I'm going to admit something. I've been a doubter of Didi Barrett. I believed that Saland just wasn't beatable, and at the very least Didi Barrett wasn't the person to beat him. Well it looks like Didi is in fact quite viable and quite serious about this race. She raised an astounding $161,000, handed in 3,700 signatures, and is showing all the signs of an effective campaign channeling the district's anger at Albany. Saland is sitting on a lot of cash (280k) and seems to be fairly effective at maintaining popularity in the district but Didi is poised to make a race out of this.
Dropped Out of Top 10
SD-11: Lynn Nunes- He'll probably make a return to the list soon as things continue to develop in Queens but he's on the bubble after a mediocre filing.
SD-50: Kathleen Joy- 13k raised by a heavy-hitter in Syracuse politics? Ouch. Let's hope Joy can get her campaign in motion, and fast.
SD-56: Robin Wilt- Wilt is just looking outgunned here against Robach.
On The Bubble
SD-53: Pam Mackesey
SD-55: Mary Wilmot |
