The New Roosevelt Initiative has commissioned a poll in the 33rd Senate District (something that should be the responsibility of the mainstream media but that is a different matter) and the results aren't pretty for Pedro (from an emailed press release):
The poll commissioned by New Roosevelt from Red Horse Strategies reveals that Espada continues to have limited and weak support and there remains a tremendous opportunity for challenger Gustavo Rivera to win, if he continues to gain momentum and raise his name recognition. The third candidate in the race, Dan Padernacht, remains a threat to be a spoiler in the race, should he choose to continue his campaign.
Despite a 78% name recognition, Espada continues to be viewed negatively by more voters when it comes to Favorable/Unfavorable (38%-41%); Job Approval/Disapproval (34%-42%) and Re-elect/Replace (26%-47%). Less than half of Latinos have a favorable view of Espada (48%). Across every age group, gender, level of voting history, geographic region, and even race, there is a larger sentiment for replacing Espada over re-electing him-including 39% of Latinos who want to replace him vs. only 35% of Latinos who would re-elect him. Espada's appeal among the electorate appears to top out at 32% with no room to grow.
Espada's main challenger in the race, Gustavo Rivera, a college professor and progressive activist with deep campaign and governmental experience, remains positioned to overtake Espada, if he can raise his name recognition. Rivera is unknown to a majority of voters in the district, but still has a respectable favorable to unfavorable ratio (22% to 7%).
Despite his relatively low name recognition, however, Rivera is still tied with Espada in a head to head matchup, with each polling 32%. What is interesting about this statistic is that Rivera's 32% is 3% higher than his substantive name recognition while Espada's 32% is a full 47% lower than his substantive name recognition.
In a three-way race between Espada, Padernacht and Rivera, Espada's support drops to 30%, while Rivera drops to 20%, with Padernacht at 8% and 42% of the electorate undecided. The match up, as it stands today, indicates that Padernacht could potentially boost Espada's chance of being reelected should he remain in the race, thus playing the role of a Ralph Nader-esque spoiler.
I'm actually surprised that Pedro's numbers aren't lower, but I'm beginning to believe that an incumbent Senator could be caught with both a dead girl and a live boy, so to speak, and still get 30% of any district. After all his travails, the Slasher still managed to pull 30% against Peralta and Pedro seems to be doing about the same.
The takeaway from this poll is that Pedro is certainly vulnerable but Rivera has grow his name recognition faster. Additionally, it's becoming clear that Daniel Padernacht does not have the polling numbers or cash to win this race and his candidacy is perhaps the best lifeline Pedro has. I believe Padernacht is sincere in his desire to change Albany and remove Pedro, but the best way to achieve both of those ends is endorse Gustavo Rivera and coalesce the anti-Pedro movement behind one candidate. I hope he makes the right decision.
On the web:
Gustavo Rivera for State Senate
|
