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Just 27% want GOP to win control of NY State Senate

by: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee

Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 15:55:21 PM EDT


[cross-posted at DLCC.org]

New York Democrats have had to face a rocky economy and recession-induced budget shortfalls in their first few years as the majority party in the State Senate.  But New York voters remember the previous 40 years of GOP control, and according to a new Siena College poll, only 27% of New York voters want to go back:

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee :: Just 27% want GOP to win control of NY State Senate
  • 33%:  Want to see Democrats expand their State Senate majority
  • 34%:  Prefer the status quo, in which Democrats hold a narrow edge
  • 27%:  Want to see Republicans re-take a majority

This has to be unwelcome news for State Senate Republicans.  Between the GOP infighting occurring up and down the ballot and the atrophy of the Senate Republicans' statewide campaign apparatus, Republican Senate candidates were depending on a hostile electorate to carry them over the top in key districts.

But that electorate, while clearly hostile to incumbents (only 31% plan to re-elect their incumbent Senator in a generic question), is not scapegoating Democrats for the state's troubles.  And with Republicans showing extreme weakness in every statewide contest tested in the Sienna poll, there are no coattails for GOP legislative candidates to ride.

The New York Senate is a top redistricting priority for the Democratic Party this cycle, because Democratic control of the chamber would give Democrats complete control of the redistricting process for both congressional and state legislative districts.  

Democrats have not held a majority in both legislative chambers in New York during a redistricting year since 1910 - exactly 100 years ago.  The only other time this has occurred (since the advent of the Republican Party as a competitor) was in 1870.

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An Unprecedented Number of Challengers (4.00 / 1)
Thanks DLCC - this is a drum that we at the New York Senate Dems have been beating for months.

Not only is the polling unfavorable for Republicans this year, but we're fielding an unprecedented number of challengers to Republican incumbents this cycle.

TAP readers and DLCC supporters can learn about all our candidates - and how to help their campaigns - on our interactive NY Battleground Map.


Keep up the good work! (0.00 / 0)
That interactive battleground is an excellent resource.  

[ Parent ]
Well, don't get comfortable (4.00 / 3)
There still has to be some enthusiasm to actually get people out to the polls.  I'm working hard to build momentum for the candidate I am working with.... but, I think, unfortunately, that one of the big winners this cycle, if we aren't careful, may be apathetic cynicism.  

Wow! (0.00 / 0)
The conventional wisdom is that this is such a big GOP year that Mean Dean will get control of the state Senate.

The CW is wrong again, so far.

Senate Dems have recruited a bunch of excellent challengers (Didi Barrett, Susan Savage, Joanne Yepsen, etc.) who are, mostly, challenging a bunch of old white guys who are lucky not to be in a nursing home.

Siena poll respondents probably know nothing about strong Democratic challengers to do-nothing senators.

They just know that a Republican-controlled state Senate would suck.    


Name Recognition (0.00 / 0)
I think you are probably right that name recognition is still too low.  

We've helped a number of candidates put together intro videos to help spread the word about their campaign (some have even been seen here on TAP).

But please share them with folks in-district to help get the word out about these challengers.

http://youtube.com/nysdscc

(We should have more videos next week for other campaigns.  I'll post about that as soon as they are live online).


[ Parent ]
Don't get cocky. (4.00 / 1)
We can talk all we want about "the atrophy of the Senate Republicans' statewide campaign apparatus," but ours isn't exactly Mr. Universe. Between a statewide organization that's geared for short, post-Labor Day campaigns that really happen almost nowhere, disturbingly low name recognition, and a lack of experienced campaign infrastructure upstate, there's ample room for the opportunity of this election to be misused. Sure, it could still be good for us either way. But the difference between business as usual and what we could be doing might be the difference between winning two extra seats and winning six or seven. This election cycle provides a generational opportunity on the level of what 2006 was nationally for the Democrats, but I'm not sure if we're going to take full advantage of it.  

I wish... (0.00 / 0)
...that Democrats would spend more time ensuring their own rank-and-file are worthy of the title instead of concentrating on the GOP.

My opinion is that you are focusing on opponents who's own foolishness will slowly but inevitably reveal itself to an electorate that is starting to educate itself more.

Concentrate on the better part of more and better Democrats and let the GOP destroy itself from the inside...lest this party suffer the same fate.

According to the poll, 57% of independents prefer someone else; so do 58% of upstate New Yorkers of all stripes.  Nearly twice as many independents want to see a greater Republican majority over a Democratic one, and only 25% of upstaters say they want a larger Dem majority.  Indies are what gave Dems the House in 2006 and the State Senate last year, Obama the White House.

Democrats are losing Independents statewide and nationally because a few who have lots of power just will not absolve themselves of their positions and make way for new, less corrupted blood.  These should be our targets.  Aiming at the GOP only ricochets back.

The poll also reveals tat 44% of State Democrats prefer someone else.  It would have been nice if Siena had included a second question that separated these folks into who was actually representd by a Democratic Senator.  A total 58% of us upstate want someone else.  I know I'm one of them.  But a number like that indicates to me that some Upstate Dems are going down anyway in the general election, so if they're being primaried you might as well get someone new on the ballot so the GOP doesn't have an anti-incumbent sentiment to take advantage of itself.

Take that as you will.  And take Adama's advice, too.


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