| Two new polls out this morning show a much tighter race than I think most folks expected between Kirsten Gillibrand and the guy the GOP nominated to lose to her, Joe DioGuardi.
First up, this SUSA poll shows them in a dead heat with Gillibrand holding a one point 44-43 lead. The poll shows her crushing in NYC and holding her own in WNY, but significantly behind upstate and in the 'burbs.
And here's your head scratcher of the morning. SUSA shows Gillibrand losing badly (28-65) among 18-34 year olds (Idolaters?) but spanking DioGuardi (56-32) with the 65+ crowd.
This morning's Q poll has better news for Gillibrand, though they still show a close race.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops Republican Joseph DioGuardi 48 - 42 percent.
Sen. Gillibrand leads 86 - 9 percent among Democrats while DioGuardi leads 88 - 8 percent among Republicans. Independent voters split with 42 percent for DioGuardi and 41 percent for Gillibrand.
New York State voters approve 49 - 37 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 43 - 32 percent favorability rating. For DioGuardi, 61 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.
Never a good sign when an incumbent is below 50%, but I'd like to see a third poll this race before I get too concerned.
UPDATE: And speak of the devil, more polls on the way:
Very Different Poll Results in New York
A forthcoming Siena poll in New York finds Andrew Cuomo (D) leading the race for governor by 33 points and Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D) leading her U.S. Senate race by 24 points -- very different from the latest Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls that show much closes races.
Two things to keep in mind: The Siena poll tests registered voters, not likely voters. And in the race for governor, the poll includes Rick Lazio as the Conservative Party candidate, even though he's not yet announced if he'll stay on the ballot.
For comparison, a Marist Poll in New York will be out tomorrow. |
