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"Fair Tax" - Another Nan Nightmare

by: Bernesebernese

Fri Oct 01, 2010 at 23:27:44 PM EDT


Crossposted at take19.org

Last Spring, Nan Hayworth declared that she wanted to talk about "the flat tax or the Fair Tax, because .... those are ideas that may well be worth considering"

Prepare for another Nan Nightmare, as we explore what the "Fair Tax" is all about....

As one might expect from the likes of Nan, her Fair Tax "worthy idea" is a boon to the super wealthy and a burden on the middle class.

Bernesebernese :: "Fair Tax" - Another Nan Nightmare
The Fair Tax is a proposal to change our Federal tax system from one that is based on income to one that is based on consumption and is charged on virtually every purchase, including food and medicine.  

The idea got impetus from a "grass roots" organization called Americans for Fair Taxation in the late 1990's. This is one of those true people=powered grassroots groups founded by people like Robert C. McNair (ranked #290 on the 2010 Forbes list of richest people in America http://www.forbes.com/wealth/f... and Leo Linbeck, Jr., CEO of a major Houston construction holding company. These are just struggling small business people trying to make ends meet (um, maybe not so much).

What could be wrong with a 23% national sales tax that replaces the dreaded income tax, payroll taxes, and estate taxes?

For one thing, if you start from the premise that a new tax system is going to fully replace the revenue of the old system, it stands to reason that if some people end up paying less under the new system, then other people will be paying more.  The Fair Tax folk will try to convince you that, amazingly, everyone's tax goes down. In reality, the Fair Tax shift the overall tax burden to the middle class, and reduce the taxes on the wealthy, since, unlike the wealthy, middle class taxpayers generally spend all or most of their income as it is earned.  Based on a Bush Treasury Department analysis, everyone earning from $15,000 to $200,000 per year would be paying more, while those above $200,000 (the top 2-3%) would pay less.

Next, this whole proposal becomes even more hilarious (or tragic) when you look at the assumptions its proponent's make in order to come to the 23% rate.  By the way, before we begin, I need to clarify that the 23% rate is really a 30% sales tax.  And the 30% rate is derived based on a variety of unrealistic assumptions, including

  1. Zero tax evasion
  2. No change in state and local tax rates
  3. No reduction in the tax base (i.e., no exemptions for food or other necessities)
  4. Government spending is held constant, and
  5. All transition issues and economic growth are ignored

If reasonable assumptions are made instead, the 23% rate (which is really 30%) climbs to 40 or 50%. It could reach 67% if food and medical were exempted.  Yikes!

Great idea, Nan. Keep up the good work.....I mean, of course, examining people's eyes.

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Does Nan want a fair tax or a flat tax? (0.00 / 0)
If we assume that without government there is no accumulation of wealth, because there are no laws and no police/armed forces to protect that accumulation of wealth, then it stands to reason that the wealthiest are the ones who benefit most from government.

By good conservative concepts that those who benefit should be those who pay; it therefore stands to reason that the wealthiest should pay the most for government.  That's why a graduated income tax rate is a good conservative concept.

Of course, getting self-described "conservatives" to accept this is another matter.


That would be an incorrect assumption. There is (0.00 / 0)
accumulation of wealth in Somalia, specifically, in the south where there is no real government rather than Somaliland or Puntland where there is.  In fact, the south is where the Coca-Cola company opened its bottling plant in 2004.

The most productive and capable are less and less in need of what a nation-state can provide and more and more heavily taxed so those states can provide those services.  No one wants the US to become Somalia, however, we no longer have the tax base to support the government we have now.  


[ Parent ]
There is a government (0.00 / 0)
Without governments, such as the U.S. government, there is no Coca-Cola.  Corporations are fictional creations, sanctioned by governments.  Absent "official" government, only a feudal system where the de facto government is the landowner (unless you have a prince overseeing it all, in which case the prince is government) can accumulate wealth.

Any accumulation of wealth in southern Somalia, therefore, is due to the presence of the U.S. government forces in the area, either directly (through military intervention) or indirectly (through payments to neighboring governments).


[ Parent ]
Flat tax again? (0.00 / 0)
rolls eyes.

If we don't tax income and interest and dividends and capital gains, people who just accumulate money - the Gordon Gecko's who are just in it for the game - will never pay any taxes.

If the conservatives are so anxious to impose a regressive tax, why not raise the tax on Gasoline, lets say, $1.00 per gallon. At least we'll be helping the environment.


I'd like to see an analysis (4.00 / 1)
It appears to me that every time we create a large spread between income tax rates and capital gains tax rates we get a bubble.

My theory is that lowering the capital gains tax rate doesn't increase the demand for venture capital, but does increase the supply.  As a result, a lot of venture capital will go into bad investments (like pets.com) because there aren't enough good investments for all that supply.


[ Parent ]
How can you, or anyone, with a straight face, tax money that was earned (0.00 / 0)
and then invested into something productive?  Do you understand where businesses get money to expand?

[ Parent ]
Cart before the horse (0.00 / 0)
There is no business, or anything productive -- at least not for any decent length of time -- unless there is demand for the product or service.  By creating an oversupply, which a large spread between income tax and capital gains tax does, you generate an oversupply of something.

In the early 1920s, it was land sales in Florida.  When that bubble burst, the money went into stocks and new investment creations (an early version of derivatives).  In the mid-1990s, it was the tech bubble, followed by the housing bubble.

We can argue over the ethics of double-taxation until we're blue in the face, but you cannot deny the historical impracticality of wanting extremely low (or, as it appears in your case, no) taxes on capital gains while work is taxed at a much higher rate.

One more thing:  By taxing capital gains at a rate much closer to income earned through work, you encourage production in a manner that rewards the actual producers in such a way as to create the demand that balances the supply.  By creating a spread between the two, the only way people can buy what is being produced is by going into debt, which is what, over the decades, has led to our present disaster.

There is an economic theory, popularized in the 1930s by Upton Sinclair, that states (put in simplistic terms) that production will always exceed possible consumption, and that government should create and hand out money to people in order to balance the equation.  For more, Google "Upton Sinclair" and "EPIC" (which stood for "End Poverty In California").  I'm not sold on his ideas, but they do provide interesting fodder for discussion and debate.


[ Parent ]
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