| Gibson went first, releasing a Public Opinion Strategies (that's right POS, a Republican outfit, obviously) poll that showed him trailing 42-38 among likely voters.
That's a modest improvement on a POS poll from a couple of months ago, that had Gibson behind by 5.
Three hours later, Murphy released a poll commissioned by the DCCC that showed him leading 51-38.
Jimmy Vielkind of the Albany Times Union responded with a wry comment on the value of internal polls (at the second link):
The key thing to remember with these polls is that they can be skewed pretty easily depending on how questions are ordered or worded. For example, if I were to poll readers the following set of questions:
1) Did you know Casey Seiler (Vielkind's boss) kills kittens and eats them for breakfast?
2) Do you have a favorable/unfavorable impression of Casey?
3) Did you know Jimmy Vielkind won the 2004 Nobel Peace Prize for saving the whales?
4) Do you have a favorable/unfavorable impression of Jimmy?
5) If an election were held today, who would you choose as CapCon's best blogger?
I might beat Casey even though he'd clearly win on the merits. Or in a poll that HE wrote.
We don't know what was asked or how it was phrased with either of these polls. So! Caveat, dear readers. Caveat.
We all know about the caveats of internal polls, but each side's pollster interviewed 400 voters, and it's reasonable to conclude from that that Murphy leads Gibson, as of last week, by about 8.5 -- the average of the two polls.
Which is pretty good news for Murphy.
More good news came in his third-quarter fund-raising total.
Maggie Haberman of Politico notes:
I don't have a comparison for every congressional district in the state -- or country -- but from what I know of the numbers, it has to be one of the largest hauls in a CD for the quiet summer months.
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While Gibson has had solid quarters, Murphy has beaten him in cash-on-hand by bigger than 2-to-1 margins the past few filing periods.
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The cash comes at a time when outside groups have been investing heavily in the district to help Gibson, including Americans for Prosperity and the NRCC.
Aside from the numbers, the best thing about today's NY-20 news is that it shows that Murphy's campaign team is top-notch, responding to Gibson's internal poll release and "striking distance" meme practically immediately.
Gibson's campaign team of tea partiers and GOP establishment hacks has shown, in every way, that it is several notches below top-notch.
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