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A Siena College poll of likely voters came out today, and let me tell you something, this race is over.
The poll, which I believe is somewhat flawed but still very useful, shows Andrew Cuomo up by 24 on Carl Paladino. While I believe that number is high (I think his lead is actually closer to 16-20), the crosstabs paint a beautiful picture: This race is over.
First, let me explain why I think the top-line number on the poll is flawed - Siena is predicting just 31% of the electorate to be Republicans (overall ~31-47-22). I think the number will be significantly higher with a more motivated base. However, even when the numbers are rejiggered to predict what would happen if Republicans were 40% of the electorate (40-40-20), Cuomo still leads by 16 points.
The most telling statistic is this: 10% of Democrats are planning to vote for Paladino, but 25% of Republicans are planning to vote for Cuomo. That means that the Republicans need to be 62% of the voters on election day for Paladino to win (weighting the crosstabs 62-29-9 produces a 8/100ths of a point lead for Paladino). Nate Silver recently explained that a lead of 9 points for a governor this close to election day has only been overcome once in the last 12 years, and a lead of 12 points or more has not been overcome in that timeframe. There is no reason to believe that this year will be any different.
So Thanks, Carl Paladino, for being you.
Lets go focus on the State Senate. And Congress. |
