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Q Poll: Gillibrand, Schneiderman Surging

by: phillip anderson

Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 08:43:00 AM EDT


The new Q Poll out this morning shows Dems in statewide races surging, especially Senator Gillibrand and AG candidate Schneiderman.

October 8, 2010 - Despite Anger At D.C., Dems Lead In All New York Races, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Propel Gillibrand To Double-Digit Lead

Democrats are surging in all New York statewide races as little-known Republican candidates struggle for name recognition, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops the magic 50 percent mark, leading Republican challenger Joseph DioGuardi 55 - 34 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent Gillibrand lead in a September 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Gillibrand leads 59 - 28 percent among women and 51 - 39 percent among men.

....

New York State likely voters approve 52 - 34 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 49 - 24 percent favorability rating.

Gillibrand held just a 6 point lead in the Q Poll released on September 23rd.

Eric Schneiderman was in a dead heat (36%-37%) with Staten Island DA Dan Donovan in that September Poll. Now he's opening up a significant lead.

In the closest statewide race in New York, the race for State Attorney General, New York State likely voters back Democratic State Sen. Eric Schneiderman 43 - 32 percent over Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan. But 24 percent of voters are undecided and 39 percent of those who select a candidate say they might change their mind by Election Day.

Neither candidate is well known: 75 percent of voters don't know enough about Schneiderman to form an opinion and 85 percent don't know enough about Donovan.

Neither of the candidates has decent name recognition, but things are definitely moving Schneiderman's way.

In other news from the poll, Chuck Schumer is crushing GOoPer Jay Townsend and Tom DiNapoli has opened up an 18 pt lead on whoever that guy is he's running against.

phillip anderson :: Q Poll: Gillibrand, Schneiderman Surging
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The biggest difference between (0.00 / 0)
this poll and the CNN one from earlier this week appears to be the likely voter model. The CNN one assumed a massive Republican voter surge; this one does not. While the leads were comfortable in the CNN one as well, it is interesting to not that in their turnout model, all of these races are far closer (Gillibrand 14pts, Schumer 16pts).

Its especially interesting because the Registered Voter numbers in the CNN poll very closely mirror the likely voter numbers in the Q poll. I assume both are basing their likely voter turnout off of a series of screening questions; I wonder if CNN is making a further adjustment based on instinct and I wonder if their flat-out wrong to do so. Because it seems weird to me that Schumer would have a 38 point lead amongst registered voters but only a 16 point lead among likely voters.

Who is right? We'll see soon. But the implications for our congressional races may be in the neighborhood of 6-7 seats.


CNN LV model is a mystery (0.00 / 0)
in NV they take Reid from an 11-point lead to a 2 point deficit. Definitely questionable.

But I am more interested in comparing this to PPP's poll showing only a 10-point lead for Gillibrand. They had Obama's approval at only 47% in the state which defies reality if he is getting 49-50% in national polls. No way he is below his national approval in NY state!  


CNN had it (0.00 / 0)
56% among adults, 54% among registered voters, and 45% among likely voters.

[ Parent ]
You don't think it's possible (0.00 / 0)
he's seeing a depressed approval rating from the LEFT in NY?
No way he is below his national approval in NY state!

As opposed to the right where most of it is coming?  

[ Parent ]
No (4.00 / 3)
There has been no pattern of that, in spite of talk in the blogosphere, Obama has remained consistently strong among democrats and liberals.

[ Parent ]
Definitely (0.00 / 0)
The liberals/Democrats who don't approve of him get a lot of press time, but they're really, according to polls, a small minority.  

[ Parent ]
Huffington, Hamsher, Armstrong (4.00 / 1)
et al are not representative of democrats or liberals as a whole, but are in the spotlight an awful lot.

[ Parent ]
Schneiderman still needs our help (4.00 / 2)
And the State Senate, as well.

Those seem the two most important places to focus.

I don't think it's possible to overstate how big it would be for progressives if Eric becomes AG. He had all the odds stacked against him vs Rice in the primary.

He is one of the few truly visionary and progressive champions at this level of politics.


Schneiderman is kicking Donovan's Butt in the AG debate (0.00 / 0)
Oh my god.

Donovan LITERALLY looks like a deer in headlights.


Are there any polls (0.00 / 0)
That show if Dems will retain leadership in the State Senate?  Would love to see how these races are going.

An SUSA Poll Today Shows the Same Thing (0.00 / 0)
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

It's nice to see that New York isn't falling for the Republicans' nonsense this year. I wish it were so of other states. sigh


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