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Election Prediction Open Thread

by: Roatti

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 11:12:48 AM EDT

Ok folks, the election is upon us and it's time for your official election prediction open thread.

The categories are:

NY-Sen: Schumer vs. Townsend percentage
NY-Sen: Gillibrand vs. DioGuardi percentage
NY-GOV Cuomo vs. Paladino percentage
NY-AG: Schneiderman vs. Donovan
NY-Comptroller: DiNapoli vs. Wilson
# of Democratic Seats in the Senate
NY-13: Mike McMahon vs. Michael Grimm percentage
NY-19: John Hall vs. Nan Hayworth percentage
NY-20: Scott Murphy vs. Chris Gibson percentage
NY-24: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna percentage
SD-11: Tony Avella vs. Frank Padavan percentage
SD-38: David Carlucci vs. C. Scott Vanderhoef
SD-40: Mike Kaplowitz vs. Greg Ball percentage
SD-41: Did Barrett vs. Steve Saland percentage
SD-58: Tim Kennedy vs. Jack Quinn percentage
SD-59: Cynthia Appleton vs. David DiPietro vs. Patrick Gallivan

Here are my predictions:

US Senate: 58 D, 42 R: Call me optimistic but I think that Joe Sestak will pull it out in PA, Scott Adams in AK, Feingold in WI, Reid in NV, and Bennett in Colorado Along with the expected breakdown most everywhere else, including our team holding Illinois and Colorado, although Colorado could go the other way. Unfortunately, Rubio takes Florida and Craaaazy Rand Paul gets elected to the US Senate. I make these predictions based on superior ground operations in the aforementioned Dem holds, and Teabagger candidates turning off independents. I also think largely Democratic cellphone-only voters are underrepresented in most polls, which should tip the results an average of 3-4 points in our direction.

US House: 218 D 217 R: The GOP has a wave like we did in 2006 but not like they did in 1994. It took us 2 wave elections to get this house majority and they can't take it back in 1. Off-year house race wins in special elections have had Democratic ground game pull off wins in races the pundits wrote off.

NY-Sen Class 3: Schumer romps 64-46
NY-Sen Class 1: Gillibrand romps, 58-42
NY-Gov: Cuomo clocks Crazy Carl Palin-dino 61-38 (minor parties get 1%)
NY-AG: Schneiderman wins, 53-47
NY-Comptroller: Dinapoli wins, 52-48
NY-State Senate: Dems lose 1 seat or retain 2 up, bringing the chamber to 31-31 or keeping the status quo, with Lt. Duffy breaking the tie. Losing Foley and Aubertine is offset by 1-2pickups in SD-40, SD-38, and SD-11. This is because Paladino will have negative coattails at the top of the ticket and the cellphone issue. But I don't completely trust Tim Kennedy to vote for a Democratic majority leader.
NY-13: McMahon loses because he alienated his base on the Health Care vote. He loses 52-48
NY-19: John Hall, a good Democrat, rallies his ground operation to pull out a 51-49 win.
NY-20:Scott Murphy pulls it out 50.3-49.7
NY-24: Michael Arcuri, also loses because he voted against HCR, 51-49.
SD-11: Tony Avella loses 55-45
SD-38: Carlucci beats Vanderhoef 52-48
SD-40: Kaplowitz speaks by with the narrowest of margins, perhaps with a recount.
SD-41: Barrett loses, 58-42. That district is just too Republican.
SD-58: Kennedy beats Quinn, 53-47, but possibly votes for a GOP majority leader in the next session.
SD-59: The GOP vote is split and Appleton pulls out a victory, 35-31-33. Although I am not calculating this race into my Senate total because I'm not confident enough on the 3-way race to say this with certainty.

Again, call me optimistic, but I am still predicting we lose about 37 house seats nationally, and several governorships. But the Governor race in NY is going to have down-ballot implications, and the Siena polls in the off-year legislative special elections have been way under-predicting ground game and likely voters. We are a blue state with a landslide Governor victory in the waiting.

What do you think? Go on the record now for bragging rights!

Roatti :: Election Prediction Open Thread

Tags: 2010, US Senate, US House, NY-Gov, State Senate, NY-13, NY-19, NY-23, NY-24, Mike Kaplowitz, (All Tags)

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Election Prediction Open Thread | 24 comments

Arcuri isn't going to lose. (4.00 / 2)

Last polls had him up ten points, and I don't think people in the 24th pay that close attention. That, and Hanna's support is soft. Besides, I got to vote for him on the Green Party line - that's enough of a warning shot to bad Dems for me.

by: Steaming Pile @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 15:18:11 PM UTC

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But he did lose. (0.00 / 0)

Go figure. People in Central New York really did care about HCR, and not in the way Arcuri or the Chamber of Commerce said they did.

by: Steaming Pile @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 15:21:12 PM UTC

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Fix this (again!) (4.00 / 2)

Murphy is in NY-20. Arcuri is in NY-24.

by: ActionJax @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 15:23:30 PM UTC

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My bad (0.00 / 0)

by: Roatti @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 17:30:13 PM UTC

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The stupid NY Post (4.00 / 2)

is going all out. This is on newsstands right now.

I so hope we're going to pull this out, not just because I really like winning, but for the opportunity to rub the teabaggers' noses in it.

by: Michael Bouldin @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 15:52:44 PM UTC

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Everyone forgets NY-23 (4.00 / 2)

I'm going to predict Owens 48.2%, Doheny 45.6%, and Hoffman 7.2%.

by: Norbrook @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 16:42:26 PM UTC

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Didn't have a good feel of that one (4.00 / 2)

so I couldn't make a call on it. I'm inclined to agree with you though

by: Roatti @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 17:08:27 PM UTC

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The general polling (0.00 / 0)

is that Owens is slightly ahead of Doheny, and given that Hoffman still holds the Conservative line, I think this time he'll be the "spoiler" for the Republican. Even though he's not actively campaigning, I've still seen a number of Hoffman yard signs. Given that we have a strong Democratic ticket at the top, I think this is going to tip things towards Owens.

Arcuri, I'm going to go with a 53-47 win. Murphy, I think will pull it out, but it'll be a narrow 50.1 to 49.9, and possible recount.

With Schumer, I'm not so much into the percentage (it's going to be massive), but whether or not he takes every county this time, or whether Hamilton still stubbornly stays red for him.

by: Norbrook @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 18:40:38 PM UTC

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Potentially bad news in NY19 (4.00 / 2)

According to the New York Obserer, the Kiryas Joel voting block might be going to Nan Hayworth. That could tip the scales in a close race.

http://www.observer.com/2010/p...

GOTV in NY19 to help stem the tide!

by: jdawg1077 @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 17:01:06 PM UTC

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GOTV! (4.00 / 1)

by: Roatti @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 17:30:39 PM UTC

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grain of salt (4.00 / 1)

reliable grapevine is that the reporter on this story is unreliable.

My personal experience is that they do not reveal their vote in advance.

by: jmcbride @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 17:36:27 PM UTC

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Generally agree (4.00 / 2)

I generally agree w/respect to the races I am following. That is statewide, CD-19, SD-38, 40, 41. I really hope Appleton pulls it out. Seems like Yepsen has a chance too, with a good field operation. Didi could be close, again because of the Murphy field.

Hall can be grateful also to the Kaplowitz and Carlucci organizations. They will also pull a lot of Dem voters in his district.

I'm sitting at a Hall/Kaplowitz PB in my house. The people we talk with have already voted. I hope they are telling the truth. The coordinated campaign, together with OFA, in the 19th has been amazing to watch. In just Cortlandt and Peekskill, maybe 10% of the district, they have hit 12,000 doors since Saturday morning, probably more. There have been about 4,000 phone calls from my house since Sat. I can't help but think this is going to work.

The degree of animus to Greg Ball has probably been underestimated in the polls. People who don't like him, really don't like him!

I can't see Paladino getting more than 33%.

by: jmcbride @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 17:57:54 PM UTC

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Cheers for optimism! (4.00 / 1)

I hope your evidence is correct. With Hall potentially losing Kiryas Joel, he will need all of Northern Westchester and Northern Rockland to turn out in order to blunt that impact. If Hall and Kaplowitz can help pull each other over the finish line, I will be ecstatic. No to Nan. Hell no to Ball.

by: jdawg1077 @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 18:08:35 PM UTC

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You seem to have added three seats to the House (4.00 / 1)

The House has 435 voting members, if the Dems end up with 220 and the GOP with 218, that would mean 438 members of the house. If the Dems are gonna hold the house, 220 is probably the best they'll do, but I don't think it's a high likelihood, more likely going to be a narrow GOP majority that'll go down in flames two years from now, but I don't rule out Dems pulling this one out of the fire either. The Senate is probably going to be 52-48 for the Dems. with the possibility of up to a 55-45 split if Dems. manage to pull off a few surprises, but I see either Dick Durbin or Chuck Schumer as the new majority leader, I don't think Reid has the resources or the credibility to pull off a victory, with the choices they have, I wouldn't be surprised if "None of these" ends up the top vote getter there tonight.

Cuomom/Duffy, Schumer and Gillibrand will win, no if's and's or but's about it.

Schneiderman and Dinapoli are another story, Donovan and Wilson have caught them up and have the support of most of the major papers, combine that with Schneiderman and Dinapoli's baggage and I think we're looking at AG Donovan and Controller Wilson.

Can't speak much for the other congressional races, but I think my Congressman, Murphy, will win, and possibly by a pretty comfortable margin, reading letters to the editor in local papers and just the general mood of the district, I don't think Gibson has caught on. That poll that put him nine points up on Murphy seemed suspicious to me because if it were true, it'd mean a drastic shift towards Gibson in a very short time and without anything happening in the race to explain it.

The state Senate, who the Hell knows, that place is such a mess that no matter what happens, it'll still be a headache. My local slug, Elizabeth Little, ran unopposed, so I wrote-in my cat just so she won't get every vote in the race (Star Sass for State Senate! Try saying that five times fast.).

by: IrishMike @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 19:16:40 PM UTC

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FYI (0.00 / 0)

Schneiderman has about 60% of the newspapers, notably the Times and the Times-Union. Wilson had a clean sweep but Donovan was not so lucky.

by: BingChester @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 19:21:46 PM UTC

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Schneiderman may win the papers (0.00 / 0)

... but I doubt it'll get him the election. He's still got major baggage simply by being a member of the State Senate, his refusal to publicly denounce the leadership of the senate after the IG's report, which just heightens the perception that he would be unwilling to investigate them. Saying Sharpton is going to have an Annex in his office is not going to help with the people who hate Sharpton, and trust me, there are plenty up here who think of Sharpton as the devil. Schneiderman has not been able to crack 50% in the polls I've seen, unless of course I've missed one, which is not a good sign in a Dem state. The momentum seems to be on Donovan's side at least since this weekend. Maybe Schneiderman could pull it off, but I wouldn't bet my last dollar on it.

by: IrishMike @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 19:37:06 PM UTC

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and frankly (0.00 / 0)

the Times and the Times-Union endorsements aren't much of a surprise and I doubt many of the Time's readers are the one's who were fence sitting between Donovan and Schneiderman, they're more likely people who were already on his side. It've been more impressive if he'd won the Daily News or even the Glens Falls Post Star, since they're not perceived as either liberal or conservative papers.

by: IrishMike @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 19:47:59 PM UTC

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Ok, how about (0.00 / 0)

The Poughkeepsie Journal
The Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
The Syracuse Post-Standard
The Rochester City Newspaper

Have I made my point yet? Or are you still more concerned with the Glens Falls Post Star's endorsement?

by: BingChester @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 20:10:04 PM UTC

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Like I said... (0.00 / 0)

winning the newspapers does not win you the election. Going into the final days of the election tied in the polls even with an extremely popular candidate at the top of your ticket who logic would suggest would carry you on his coattails, in a state where Democratic wins are usually a given, after a week of bad press, is not a good sign for Schneiderman. And I doubt you'd be so dismissive of the Post Star if they'd endorsed Schneiderman, since every vote, whether it's from NYC, Rochester or Glens Falls, is going to be important in a close race.

by: IrishMike @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 20:31:42 PM UTC

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McMahon/Grimm - CD-13 (4.00 / 2)

I think you're right about this one. McMahon did lose his base on the Healthcare AND Wall Street votes. I know many Progressives on SI that won't be voting for him because of this. I am on the Brooklyn side of the district and decided to vote for him because I'd rather have this DINO in Congress than Grimm who will vote lockstep with the Republicans.

By the way, with re-districting in 2012 I'd like to see this district completely reorganized since Brooklyn has almost no say on who runs due to the fact that this is the ONLY district in NY that's comprised entirely of residents of 1 borough that controls all the candidates for Congress (if you're not a Staten Island resident you're guaranteed either not to get the nomination or if you do you can't win because you don't live on SI).

by: ROSALIE907 @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 19:41:45 PM UTC

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new here (0.00 / 0)

I was peeved about McMahon's Healthcare and Wall Street votes, but Grimm scared the hell out of me when I checked out his site. So I went WFP as far as I could, and then D where no WFP line. I didn't vote for the race that had only the Republican running.

Got exit polled after, and the pollster said he'd talked to quite a few progressives. But who knows?

::waves:: Hi all! nice to meet you!

by: Bethynyc @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 21:38:10 PM UTC

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Well, things are better for redistricting than in 2000. (0.00 / 0)

We had a Republican Senate and Governor Pataki last time. I'm hoping the new map won't be anywhere near the clusterfuck the current one is.

by: Steaming Pile @ Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 15:24:14 PM UTC

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I'm cautiously optimistic. (4.00 / 2)

Everything I'm hearing from around the state and seeing around the country is that there may be a wave, and some of our weaker candidates may be going down, but it's not a tsunami.

Fingers crossed.

by: Michael Bouldin @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 19:51:58 PM UTC

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I'll say Senate 55-45, House 225-210 for us. (0.00 / 0)

Small but workable majorities.

Of course, I could be full of shit.

by: Adama D. Brown @ Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 21:34:10 PM UTC

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