Time to eat some of my words.

If I remember correct (0.00 / 0)

part of your assessment, and definitely part of my assessment, was that even if Kennedy won, he would be one of the worst members of the caucus.

On that point he will have to prove us wrong.

---

by: BingChester @ Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 04:40:49 AM UTC

I'm strongly suspicious of anyone associated with Pigeon. (4.00 / 1)

And some of Kennedy's transactional politics in the EC leg are not good.

That said, Jack Quinn had an even longer history of Pigeon-association than Kennedy, so this is much better than the alternative.  

---

by: Adama D. Brown @ Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 05:11:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly (0.00 / 0)

The problem was never that his association with Pigeon meant he would lose (although winning has never been one of Pigeon's strong suits).

The problem was that this election replaces someone lame and dull with someone who is associating with an actively and openly corrupt individual - a huge step backwards for good government, which is of course the whole point of this website.

So Adama, I don't think you need to eat your words. I think you're still right about Kennedy.

---

by: Amherst Guy @ Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 10:51:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So, maybe you can tell me.... (0.00 / 0)

How, exactly, does Antoine Thompson manage to lose in a district with a 5-1 Democratic enrollment edge (or, is the NY Post wrong on that factoid?)?  

---

by: robinia @ Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 12:38:12 PM UTC

My guess (0.00 / 0)

We know that Paladino turned out a boatload of people all throughout the Buffalo area.  While Kennedy was busy doing GOTV to get some crossover votes, Thompson probably sat on his hands (relatively).  So you had all sorts of voters going straight down the line (possibly even then conservative line) and there goes Antoine Thompson.

---

by: BingChester @ Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 14:04:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Saw a different, but similar, take.... (0.00 / 0)

Saying that people in that district had been trained through the years that only voting in the primary mattered.

---

by: robinia @ Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 16:16:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually, it's not that simple. (0.00 / 0)

Ticket splitting was rife all over western New York. Although Paladino won all the western counties with huge margins, Senators Gillibrand and Schumer also won Erie County with similarly huge margins, as well as winning some of the more rural counties that Paladino won 70/30. So straight ticket voting was limited to small chunks of the base in this election, at least around here.  

---

by: Adama D. Brown @ Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 18:26:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Then, there is this local view: (0.00 / 0)

http://niagaratimes.blogspot.c...

---

by: robinia @ Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 16:31:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Several different things. (0.00 / 0)

One, his opponent is actually a registered Democrat running on the Republican line out of opposition to Antoine.

Two, Antoine took a tack of attacking the other guy for being a criminal defense lawyer, and produced some incredibly disgusting attack ads accusing the guy of protecting rapists and child molesters, which a lot of people think backfired on him.

Three, some renegade elements in the Buffalo-area machine went to bat for Grisanti, in order to try and get Antoine out of office.

Four, there's the fact that Antoine is pretty much up to his neck in anything dirty the senate Dems are involved in.

So call it a perfect storm.  

---

by: Adama D. Brown @ Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 18:09:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank you. (0.00 / 0)

---

by: robinia @ Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 21:07:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even more than that, (0.00 / 0)

Everything Adama said is correct. However I think the meat of the issue is Adamas #4. The Buffalo News has been HAMMERING the hell out of him for four years. That's a weird district. It has a huge black majority in terms of turnout a primary election and a huge white majority in terms of turnout in a general election. The black parts of the district literally have no reason to vote in most non-presidential generals - Slaughter's district, Crystal Peoples district, Thompson's district, and the cities of Buffalo and Niagara Falls are all hugely Democratic. On the other hand, the white areas - North Buffalo, Grand Island, Tonawanda - are competitive in general elections, driving turnout way up.

There's definitely some racism in play, having met some of these people, but its more than just that. The North Buffalo and Tonawanda Democrats HATE Antoine, because he supports people who run against Sam Hoyt, because he beat a sitting Democrat for the seat in a primary (Marc Coppola) who was one of theirs, and because he's a corrupt dirtbag. More recently, his support in the black areas of the city started to erode because again, he's a dirtbag. Antoine had always been very good to the people of his home region in terms of jobs, cash, and just getting the roads fixed, so I think a lot of people may not have wanted to believe there was a problem. However the evidence is now overwhelming. The Buffalo News really has been on him non stop for two years, it was inignorable. So even those who did vote may not have voted for him - they may not have voted Grisanti, but they didn't vote Thompson. I would expect you will see a decent undervote from the Buffalo wards of Masten and Ellicott on the race. Random thought: Steve Pigeon is involved in Grassroots, the political organ that backs Thompson (and his protoge, Brian Davis, who resigned in disgrace last year).

Don't misinterpret my statements about the Buffalo News beating on him as me calling what they did wrong or unfair. It wasn't, if anything they were too nice to him.

He deserves to lose and we deserve better than him. I'm sad for Phillip and all my friends who are going to lose their jobs because he sucks so, so, so much. He's about as smart as a 2-egg omelette, about as useful as a Geocities page, and about as on the level as the leaning Tower of Pisa. Go fuck yourself Antoine, and go fuck yourself Byron Brown for giving this urinal cake your support, resources, and access to unlimited money for all these years. How much do you want to bet that he'll have a six figure job in the city government by February?

And yes Robinia, it really is 5-1. Its the most lopsided district that does not include a part of NYC.

---

by: Amherst Guy @ Fri Nov 05, 2010 at 03:52:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

fascinating. (0.00 / 0)

Thank you.  Really helps me understand how/why he was undercutting the groundswell of support for a 2-year hydrofracking moratorium. While taking boatloads of industry cash, and seeming to hold out to advocates that he MIGHT go to bat for them. Presumably, he was waiting for us to outbid the gas companies... while we just kept sending him scientific reports.

---

by: robinia @ Fri Nov 05, 2010 at 18:15:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]